What is Nicola Burns's strike rate?

Nicola Burns has won 39 of 598 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 6.5% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Nicola Burns do best at?

Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 15 wins from 196 rides (7.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Nicola Burns ride most for?

R P Burns, with 85 rides since 2022 — 14% of the total. That pairing has won 8 (9.4%).

Is Nicola Burns in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 10 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Nicola Burns's Fair A/E?

0.84, from 597 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Nicola Burns

598 rides in the last 5 seasons · 328 individual horses

As at 14 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride yesterday 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2024→)

from 1 Jan 2022

39–598

Wins / Runs

6.5%

Strike rate

n=598

134 (22%)

Placed

0.84

Fair A/E

n=597 · 0.67 incl. margin

−256.53

£1 level stake

n=598 at SP · −42.9%

£553k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

3.4%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 120 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 7% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.84). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 9% (45 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 598 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 14 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 22.2% when favourite R P Burns: 9.4% from 85 LTO winners: 8.9% Rides the favourite in 6% of races

The read

It is weakest at Leopardstown (2.6% over 38 rides) — the widest gap in the record. The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 5.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.79 and −158.55 to a £1 stake over 328 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. R P Burns supplies 14% of the rides and edges the rider's average (9.4% vs 6.5%, A/E 1.83) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 3.3% over 60 rides, 3.2pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider on Good going: Fair A/E 0.51 across 150 rides (4% strike, −108.76 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.5% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

5.8%−0.7

n=328 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −158.55

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

8.9%+2.4

n=45 · A/E 0.64 · £1 −22.38

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

3.6%−2.9

n=84 · A/E 0.67 · £1 −45.00

When favourite

22.2%

n=36 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −11.28

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

6.4%−0.1

n=575 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −259.53

Big fields · 14+ runners

4.7%−1.8

n=319 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −151.38

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−6.5

n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Curragh 2.9% vs 6.5% · n=69

At Leopardstown 2.6% vs 6.5% · n=38

Off a 61-180-day break 3.3% vs 6.5% · n=60

Off a 8-14-day break 9.2% vs 6.5% · n=119

With R P Burns 9.4% vs 6.5% · n=85

On Good going 4% vs 6.5% · n=150

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 196 15 7.7% −71.92

Soft 159 13 8.2% −32.75

Good 150 6 4% −108.76

Good to Soft 44 3 6.8% −28.10

Heavy 40 2 5% −6.00

Good to Firm 9 0 0% −9.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Dundalk (AW) 196 15 7.7% −71.92

Curragh 69 2 2.9% −54.50

Gowran Park 42 3 7.1% −22.38

Leopardstown 38 1 2.6% −31.00

Galway 30 2 6.7% −13.50

Bellewstown 25 3 12% +1.12

Navan 25 0 0% −25.00

Naas 25 1 4% −18.50

Roscommon 19 1 5.3% −15.00

Cork 19 2 10.5% +9.00

Fairyhouse 18 0 0% −18.00

Limerick 17 3 17.6% +7.00

Down Royal 15 0 0% −15.00

Tramore 13 1 7.7% −11.60

Ballinrobe 11 3 27.3% +13.75

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 49 10 20.4% 0.87 −14.78

2nd–3rd fav 97 9 9.3% 0.64 −53.75

4th–6th fav 132 12 9.1% 1.09 −23.00

7th+ in betting 320 8 2.5% 0.79 −165.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Deuteronomy (IRE) 27 4 7 1 Oct 26

Carvalhal (IRE) 16 1 5 1 Sep 26

Autocrat (IRE) 15 2 5 6 Nov 26

Genuine Jim (IRE) 13 2 4 15 Oct 26

The Blue Panther (IRE) 9 1 2 6 Aug 26

Sporting Hero (GB) 8 2 4 12 Dec 25

Pier Pressure (FR) 8 1 3 30 Sep 25

Ryefield Dasher (IRE) 7 2 2 1 Nov 26

Grey Leader (IRE) 6 0 0 28 Jul 26

Hell Left Loose (GB) 6 1 2 9 Jan 26

Bright Start (USA) 6 0 2 7 Jun 25

Elusive In Mayo (IRE) 5 0 0 28 Oct 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 328 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 10

Only 10 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

86108211784497

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardR P Burns

14% of all rides
9.4% SR · A/E 1.83

TrainerRWSR£1

R P Burns 85 8 9.4% −4.50

G M Lyons 51 4 7.8% −30.63

G. O'Leary 33 2 6.1% −18.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2024→

Archived wins

£553k

Prize money

2025

Best season · 26 wins

Sir Alfie (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund Nursery Handicap Curragh · Aug 2025

£20,650

Empty Wallet (IRE) — Irish EBF Median Sires Series (C & G) Maiden Bellewstown · Jul 2025

£14,750

Ryefield Dasher (IRE) — Roscommon Rated Race Roscommon (IRE) · Oct 2026

£12,000

Notable horses

Deuteronomy (IRE) Autocrat (IRE) Genuine Jim (IRE) Sporting Hero (GB) Ryefield Dasher (IRE) Carvalhal (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Acclamation (GB) 12.5% · 4–32

Progeny have won 10% of 19,719 runs since 2008 (1,327 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 195.

Profitable (IRE) 4% · 1–25

Progeny have won 9.5% of 4,452 runs since 2021 (358 horses).

Dark Angel (IRE) 5.3% · 1–19

Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,957 runs since 2011 (1,596 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.

Galileo Gold (GB) 11.8% · 2–17

Progeny have won 10.6% of 2,049 runs since 2021 (176 horses).

No Nay Never (USA) 12.5% · 2–16

Progeny have won 12.1% of 6,383 runs since 2018 (710 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 9.1% from 618. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.5% from 187.

Cotai Glory (GB) 23.1% · 3–13

Progeny have won 11.5% of 3,972 runs since 2021 (391 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 14.6% from 1,434. Weakest on Soft going: 7% from 429.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 598 · newest first

The latest 50 of 598 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 1 October 2024 to 13 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

13 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Duleek Street (IRE)T: John McConnell Book Online At DundalkStadium.com Apprentice Handicap12f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 20/1

13 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) All The Girls (IRE)T: T G McCourt Christmas Party Nights At Dundalk Stadium Handicap6f · Standard · 10 ran 5th 11/1

11 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Almost Okay (IRE)T: Jarlath P Fahey Now Racing Every Wednesday At Dundalk Handicap10.5f · Standard · 14 ran 9th 80/1

11 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Thaloria (GB)T: Miss Natalia Lupini Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Handicap7f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 14/1

11 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Lethimfly (IRE)T: Gerard Keane Christmas Party Nights At Dundalk Stadium Handicap5f · Standard · 13 ran 2nd 7/2

06 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Autocrat (IRE)T: P Sweeney BAR 1 Betting 'Acca Boost' Apprentice Handicap12f · Standard · 10 ran 5th 9/1

04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Lisnadill (GB)T: John McConnell Now Racing Every Wednesday At Dundalk Handicap10.5f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 66/1

04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Jenny Spider (IRE)T: G. M. Lyons Book Online At DundalkStadium.com Maiden7f · Standard · 8 ran 6th 40/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Ryefield Dasher (IRE)T: Thomas Gibney Keadeen Hotel Premier Handicap8f · Yielding To Soft · 21 ran 10th 12/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Grecian Pearl (IRE)T: Gerard Keane Irish EBF Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Yielding To Soft · 23 ran 18th 150/1

30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Battle Borne (IRE)T: Patrick J McKenna Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap8f · Standard · 14 ran 7th 14/1

30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Bishopton (IRE)T: Miss Natalia Lupini Happy Halloween Handicap8f · Standard · 14 ran 5th 33/1

30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Bye Bye Now (IRE)T: John McConnell View Restaurant At Dundalk Handicap5f · Standard · 14 ran 4th 12/1

29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Racing Royalty (GB)T: Gillian Scott See You At The GR1 Double Header 21 & 22 November Handicap (0-60) (Div 1)7f · Yielding · 12 ran 7th 14/1

29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Aquilla Star (IRE)T: John McConnell Punchestown Premiere Weekend Sat 21 & Sun 22 November Handicap8f · Yielding · 14 ran 9th 14/1

28 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Coolnagrattan (IRE)T: W R Crawford Happy Halloween Handicap12f · Standard · 13 ran 5th 3/1F

28 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Churchill Gale (IRE)T: Dermot A McLoughlin Christmas Party Nights At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (Div II)7f · Standard · 13 ran 11th 80/1

28 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Elusive In Mayo (IRE)T: Thomas Gibney Halloween Mid-Term Racing At Dundalk Handicap8f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 50/1

23 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Belle Island (GB)T: Robson De Aguiar Fastfix Quay Celtic 60th Anniversary Nursery Handicap5f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 40/1

23 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Call The Cavalry (IRE)T: Chris Timmons Braham Electrical Handicap6f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 33/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 9 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 3 runs (won 0) · to 13 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Nicola Burns's strike rate?: Nicola Burns has won 39 of 598 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 6.5% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Nicola Burns do best at?: Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 15 wins from 196 rides (7.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Nicola Burns ride most for?: R P Burns, with 85 rides since 2022 — 14% of the total. That pairing has won 8 (9.4%).
Is Nicola Burns in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 10 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Nicola Burns's Fair A/E?: 0.84, from 597 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.