What is Adam Caffrey's strike rate?

Adam Caffrey has won 142 of 1,592 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8.9% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Adam Caffrey do best at?

Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 61 wins from 490 rides (12.4%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Adam Caffrey ride most for?

Adrian McGuinness, with 1,047 rides since 2022 — 66% of the total. That pairing has won 105 (10%).

What is Adam Caffrey's Fair A/E?

1.14, from 1,590 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Adam Caffrey

1,592 rides in the last 5 seasons · 461 individual horses

As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 14 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2021→)

from 1 Jan 2022

142–1,592

Wins / Runs

8.9%

Strike rate

n=1,592

409 (26%)

Placed

1.14

Fair A/E

n=1,590 · 0.91 incl. margin

−277.35

£1 level stake

n=1,592 at SP · −17.4%

£2.16m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

7.2%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 320 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.14). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 13% (135 rides). Rides mostly for Adrian McGuinness — 66% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 1,592 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 4 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Dec–Feb 36.4% when favourite Adrian McGuinness: 10% from 1,047 LTO winners: 12.6% Claiming: 10.4% Rides the favourite in 7% of races

The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 12.6% (n=135, Fair A/E 0.99). Adrian McGuinness supplies 66% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (10%, A/E 1.15) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well on Good to Firm going (16.2%, n=37) and on Standard (AW) going (12.5%, n=513). One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Dubai Duty Free Irish European Breeders Fund Ragusa Handicap at Curragh (Jun 2024, £59,000). The standout partner of the record: Exquisite Acclaim (IRE) — 6 wins from 36 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Dec–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.9% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

6%−2.9

n=452 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −6.71

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

12.6%+3.7

n=135 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −54.00

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

6.3%−2.6

n=175 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −41.29

When favourite

36.4%

n=107 · A/E 1.59 · £1 +30.04

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

10.4%+1.5

n=856 · A/E 1.30 · £1 −63.56

Big fields · 14+ runners

6.9%−2.0

n=852 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −231.42

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

9.1%+0.2

n=11 · A/E 1.97 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With C Byrnes 20% vs 8.9% · n=30

With C&D winners 15.4% vs 8.9% · n=260

With first-time headgear 0% vs 8.9% · n=56

With debutants 1.3% vs 8.9% · n=79

On Good to Firm going 16.2% vs 8.9% · n=37

On Standard (AW) going 12.5% vs 8.9% · n=513

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 513 64 12.5% −99.05

Good 451 33 7.3% +27.46

Soft 371 20 5.4% −159.50

Heavy 120 8 6.7% −62.17

Good to Soft 100 11 11% −15.34

Good to Firm 37 6 16.2% +31.25

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Dundalk (AW) 490 61 12.4% −90.80

Curragh 196 10 5.1% −72.00

Leopardstown 112 8 7.1% −32.00

Navan 97 8 8.2% +160.50

Gowran Park 80 9 11.3% −20.34

Naas 70 4 5.7% −12.00

Galway 68 3 4.4% −50.00

Down Royal 56 2 3.6% −36.67

Cork 53 2 3.8% −9.00

Roscommon 50 6 12% −11.17

Bellewstown 45 4 8.9% +6.50

Fairyhouse 43 3 7% −19.17

Limerick 36 3 8.3% −18.75

Listowel 32 2 6.3% −13.00

Killarney 28 2 7.1% −19.25

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 2 14 0 0% −14.00

Class 1 11 1 9.1% −1.00

Class 6 8 2 25% +1.50

Class 4 3 0 0% −3.00

Class 3 2 0 0% −2.00

Class 5 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 148 45 30.4% 1.42 +20.50

2nd–3rd fav 258 38 14.7% 1.03 −46.35

4th–6th fav 410 33 8% 1.02 −92.50

7th+ in betting 776 26 3.4% 1.10 −159.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Distillate (GB) 48 5 13 30 Sep 26

Comfort Line (IRE) 46 5 19 27 Aug 26

Exquisite Acclaim (IRE) 36 6 13 16 Oct 26

I'm Spartacus (IRE) 29 5 11 10 Sep 26

Apache Outlaw (IRE) 28 2 7 20 Oct 26

Casanova (GB) 24 0 6 16 Jul 25

Star Harbour (IRE) 23 3 6 28 Jun 26

No More Porter (IRE) 22 0 6 20 Oct 26

Sirjack Thomas (IRE) 22 3 7 7 Oct 24

Jawhary (GB) 19 2 6 26 May 26

Half Nutz (IRE) 19 0 4 27 Oct 25

Skontonovski (GB) 19 2 6 30 Oct 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 461 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 7 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

1415849969910918

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardAdrian McGuinness

66% of all rides
10% SR · A/E 1.15

TrainerRWSR£1

Adrian McGuinness 1,047 105 10% −193.25

Noel Meade 92 7 7.6% +4.58

H Rogers 39 3 7.7% −26.92

C Byrnes 30 6 20% +18.58

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2021→

142

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£2.17m

Prize money

2024

Best season · 38 wins

Star Harbour (IRE) — Dubai Duty Free Irish European Breeders Fund Ragusa Handicap (Premier Handicap) Curragh · Jun 2024

£59,000

Pierre Royal (IRE) — Dubai Duty Free Derby Festival Handicap (Premier Handicap) Curragh · Jun 2026

£58,900

Tribal Star (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Red God Handicap (Premier Handicap) Dundalk (AW) · Aug 2025

£29,500

Notable horses

Exquisite Acclaim (IRE) Distillate (GB) Comfort Line (IRE) I'm Spartacus (IRE) Magnetic North (IRE) Hodd's Girl (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Elzaam (AUS) 9.4% · 5–53

Progeny have won 9.2% of 4,528 runs since 2016 (374 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.9% from 326.

Havana Grey (GB) 9.6% · 5–52

Progeny have won 13.2% of 4,592 runs since 2022 (419 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 16.2% from 105. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10% from 421.

Profitable (IRE) 16% · 8–50

Progeny have won 9.5% of 4,441 runs since 2021 (358 horses).

Alhebayeb (IRE) 10.4% · 5–48

Progeny have won 8.3% of 2,637 runs since 2018 (160 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 11.7% from 179. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 11.5% from 253.

Kodi Bear (IRE) 8.9% · 4–45

Progeny have won 10.3% of 3,980 runs since 2020 (390 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.3% from 260.

Acclamation (GB) 13.6% · 6–44

Progeny have won 10% of 19,709 runs since 2008 (1,327 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 195.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,632 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,632 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 18 April 2021 to 21 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

21 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Wynette (IRE)T: Noel Meade Kilberry Fillies Maiden7f · Yielding · 13 ran 1st 50/1

20 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) No More Porter (IRE)T: Adrian McGuinness Always Gambling Responsibly With 1xBet.ie Handicap8f · Yielding · 23 ran 7th 10/1

20 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Doctor Grace (IRE)T: Adrian McGuinness 1xBet.ie Supports The Curragh Handicap10f · Yielding · 24 ran 16th 80/1

20 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Apache Outlaw (IRE)T: Adrian McGuinness Autumn Racing With 1xBet.ie At The Curragh Handicap6f · Yielding · 17 ran 5th 10/1

18 Oct 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Walhaan (IRE)T: Ciaran Murphy Christmas Festival Tickets On Sale Now Handicap10f · Good · 15 ran 10th 40/1

18 Oct 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Winter Adventure (IRE)T: Noel Meade Leopardstown Golf, Padel And Range Maiden9f · Good · 15 ran 11th 28/1

16 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Dancing Steve (IRE)T: Adrian McGuinness View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium Handicap10.5f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 6/1

16 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Exquisite Acclaim (IRE)T: Adrian McGuinness BAR 1 Betting 'Supporting Irish Racing' Handicap7f · Standard · 12 ran 5th 9/2

16 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Gabby Hayes (IRE)T: Noel Meade James Crowe 1 Year Memorial Nursery Handicap7f · Standard · 13 ran 13th 16/1

15 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Grann's Boy (IRE)T: H Rogers Isuzu Ireland Handicap14f · Yielding To Soft · 21 ran 10th 4/1

15 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) No More Porter (IRE)T: Adrian McGuinness DNG Excellence Handicap9f · Yielding To Soft · 19 ran 5th 11/1

15 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Silent Promise (IRE)T: Adrian McGuinness Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Soft · 15 ran 9th 100/1

15 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Dark Ace (IRE)T: Adrian McGuinness DNG Nationwide Handicap6f · Soft · 13 ran 7th 9/2J

12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) Acanto (IRE)T: Noel Meade Thank You For Your Support Handicap12f · Soft · 16 ran 3rd 12/1

12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) Zabriskie Point (GB)T: Adrian McGuinness Roscommon Racecourse On Facebook Handicap (Div II)7.5f · Soft · 13 ran 5th 9/2

12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) The Bear Trap (IRE)T: Adrian McGuinness Roscommon Racecourse On Facebook Handicap (Div I)7.5f · Soft · 14 ran 9th 22/1

11 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Helvic Dream (IRE)T: Noel Meade Colm White Bookmaker Beggar's End Handicap16f · Soft · 17 ran 14th 20/1

10 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Goal Exceeded (GB)T: Adrian McGuinness Naas Racecourse Handicap7f · Soft · 10 ran 10th 12/1

10 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Oracle Of Delphi (IRE)T: A Oliver WTW Willis Fillies Maiden7f · Soft · 11 ran 6th 22/1

10 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Twin Nation (IRE)T: Noel Meade M.L.A Engineering Ltd. Supporting Ardclough GAA Maiden8f · Soft · 13 ran PU 100/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 5 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 4 runs (won 0, 1 did not run) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0, 1 did not run) · fastest on KTB Speed in 6 runs (won 0) · to 18 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Adam Caffrey's strike rate?: Adam Caffrey has won 142 of 1,592 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8.9% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Adam Caffrey do best at?: Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 61 wins from 490 rides (12.4%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Adam Caffrey ride most for?: Adrian McGuinness, with 1,047 rides since 2022 — 66% of the total. That pairing has won 105 (10%).
What is Adam Caffrey's Fair A/E?: 1.14, from 1,590 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.