3:07 Worcester
The 3:07 at Worcester is a Class 3 novices' steeple chase over 2m7f on good ground, a small but high-quality field of four where the KTB Fit scores identify a clear top three. Potters Charm tops the KTB rankings on 72 with an official rating of 153, ahead of Glen To Glen on 60 (OR 132) and Vicomte Le Brave on 58, while Jupiter des Mottes sits on 49. The race features a notable step up in trip for the two principals and a drop in class for three of the quartet, with recent form and course knowledge likely to prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as a lone leader with low confidence, pointing to one clear front-runner facing little pressure and an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to overcome. Potters Charm is the obvious candidate to take that role as a confirmed front-runner who tends to make the running or race prominently. Glen To Glen and Jupiter des Mottes are both held-up types who produce their efforts late, while Vicomte Le Brave's run-style is not detailed but the overall shape suggests the key question will be whether anything can close effectively enough to peg back an unchallenged leader over this new trip.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Potters Charm KTB Selection72/100
Potters Charm is a high-class performer with strong recent form that includes two wins from its last five starts. The seven-year-old has already won here from its only previous visit to Worcester and handles good ground well with two wins and a placing from three runs. It drops in class today while stepping up to 2m7f for the first time, which asks a fresh question of a horse that has been effective over shorter. Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies have an 18% strike rate at Worcester with an A/E of 1.09 from 38 runs, and Sam Twiston-Davies rides with a 17% strike rate at the track from 704 rides. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 47/255 record with an A/E of 0.83 overall.
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2Glen To Glen60/100
Glen To Glen is a high-class performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. The four-year-old has already shown up well at Worcester with a placing from his only run here, while the trainer and jockey both hold solid 18% strike rates at the track. He drops in class and steps up markedly in trip today which remains an unknown, though he has won on good ground in the past. Nick Scholfield and Kielan Woods combine with a 5/27 record and an A/E of 1.09 plus positive LSP of +£22.29. The jockey has an 18% strike rate at Worcester from 234 rides with an A/E of 1.12.
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3Vicomte Le Brave58/100
Vicomte Le Brave makes his debut for a yard with only three Worcester runs to judge them on. The seven-year-old's recent 2213-P sequence shows some placed form before a pulled-up effort, while first-time headgear is now applied. The trainer has a 33% strike rate at Worcester with an A/E of 3.75 from just three runs, and Tom Cannon has an 11% strike rate at the track from 184 rides with an A/E of 1.16. The trainer and jockey partnership shows a 0/7 record overall. By Brave Mansonnien, the sire has an 11% overall win rate from 291 runners.
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4Jupiter des Mottes49/100
Jupiter des Mottes is a high-class performer who arrives in excellent order after two wins last spring. The seven-year-old drops back from 3m2f to an untried 2m7f which poses a fresh question, though he has won on good ground from one run. Dan Skelton and Harry Skelton have a 22% strike rate at Worcester between them, the trainer on 17% with an A/E of 0.78 from 425 runs and the jockey on 20% with an A/E of 0.87 from 401 rides. The combination shows a 1410/6374 record with an A/E of 0.90 overall.
KTB verdict
Potters Charm stands out as the KTB Selection on a Fit score of 72 and an official rating of 153. The horse brings high-class ability, proven course success at Worcester from a single visit, and a strong record on good ground, with the Twiston-Davies team in solid form at the venue. The uncontested lead suggested by the pace shape should play to its strengths as a front-runner, though the step up to 2m7f is the main unknown. Glen To Glen is the obvious danger on high-class figures and a previous placing at the track, while Vicomte Le Brave cannot be entirely dismissed with the first-time headgear and yard's local record. Jupiter des Mottes looks the least likely of the four on current KTB ranking despite recent wins.
KTB Selection Potters Charm
This is the narrative read of the 3:07 Worcester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Worcester racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Worcester results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Worcester racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course-winning form at Worcester?
Potters Charm has won here from its only previous visit to Worcester.
What is the KTB Fit score and official rating for the selection?
Potters Charm has a KTB Fit score of 72/100 and an OR of 153.
How does the pace shape influence the race?
The pace shape is a lone leader with little to pressure it, suggesting an uncontested lead that can be hard for closers to peg back.
Which runners are stepping up or down in trip?
Potters Charm and Glen To Glen are stepping up to 2m7f for the first time, while Jupiter des Mottes drops back from 3m2f.
What headgear is being applied and to which horse?
First-time headgear is applied to Vicomte Le Brave.
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