2:20 Sedgefield
This Class 5 conditional jockeys' handicap chase over 2m5f at Sedgefield on good ground brings together eight runners, several of whom arrive in respectable form yet with questions to answer over the trip or at the venue. The KTB Fit scores identify a clear top four, headed by the selection Tom Creen on 70, with Fortunate Fella, Royal Time and Kinbara Firstdraft following in that order. Overall the numbers point to a race where course experience and proven stamina could prove decisive given the uncontested pace expected.
How the race shapes up
With a lone-leader pace shape carrying high confidence, one horse is likely to secure an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in. Illogical Logic is the only confirmed front-runner in the field and may be allowed an easy time on the front end, while the prominent Tom Creen should track that pace without expending too much energy. The remaining runners are predominantly held-up types who will be looking to produce their efforts late, posing the key question of whether any of them possess the necessary finishing speed to close down an uncontested leader on this stiff track.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Tom Creen KTB Selection70/100
Tom Creen is a useful performer with a solid record here, having won five times from 19 runs at Sedgefield. He has been competitive on good ground without winning and steps up in trip today having already scored at this distance. The yard holds a 19 percent strike rate at the track from a large sample. Trainer Sam England and jockey Rebecca Hitchen combine with a 7/27 record that carries a strong A/E of 1.62 and positive LSP of +£9.53. The 11-year-old is usually prominent, racing handily on or close to the lead, which should see him ideally placed to track the expected lone leader. His recent form of P3U-72 suggests he retains enough ability to be competitive from an OR of 95.
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2Fortunate Fella62/100
Fortunate Fella is a useful performer who has shown enough on ratings and race history to be competitive at this level. Pulled up on his only previous run at Sedgefield and the yard's modest 6% strike rate here adds a negative. Steps up in trip for the first time today while having a solid record on good ground. Henry Hogarth and William Maggs have a 21% strike rate at the track from 48 rides with an A/E of 1.2. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the 6-year-old will need to quicken effectively if the leader is allowed an easy time out front. From an OR of 100 he drops in class, which could bring further improvement.
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3Royal Time57/100
Royal Time is a useful performer who has been consistent of late with three placed efforts from his last four completed starts. Drops back in trip today having failed to trouble the judge on his one previous run at this distance while he is also unplaced in all nine starts on good ground. Trainer Christian Williams has a strong 36% strike-rate at Sedgefield from 25 runs. The 7-year-old is usually held up, producing his effort late, and will be hoping the pace collapses in front. Jockey Mr T Walsh has no record at the track, which remains a neutral factor. From his OR of 91 he arrives with recent form figures of U-4353 that underline his placed credentials.
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4Kinbara Firstdraft53/100
Kinbara Firstdraft is a useful performer who has been running respectably without winning lately. Only one previous run at Sedgefield resulted in a modest fifth and the yard has failed to land a winner from eight attempts here. Steps up in trip today having shown no success in two previous tries at this distance. Leonard Kerr sends him out while Jack Power takes the ride with a 30% strike rate at Sedgefield and an A/E of 3.02 from 10 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the 7-year-old will need to find extra if the leader gets an easy lead. His recent form of 546952 and OR of 90 suggest he can be competitive without being the strongest candidate.
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5Illogical Logic49/100
Illogical Logic is a fair performer who arrives in decent form after two wins at shorter trips. Steps up to 2m5f for the first time in a while but has won at the distance before and his record on good ground reads a solid three wins from 14 runs. The yard's modest 7% strike rate at Sedgefield is offset by an A/E close to 1.00 while the horse himself has only one previous run here when finishing third. A confirmed front-runner, he is likely to set the uncontested pace.
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6Path of Stars46/100
Path of Stars is a fair handicapper who has been placed on both visits to Sedgefield and has finished in the frame in three of his last four starts. He has shown he can handle this trip though he is yet to win at it, and his record on good ground is respectable without being strong. The yard has no established record at the track. Usually settling in midfield, the 5-year-old has recent form of -51243 and an OR of 78.
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7Out On Her Own42/100
Out On Her Own is a fair mare who has shown consistent form without winning, finishing in the frame on four of her last five starts. She has already tried this trip twice without success and steps up in distance again today, which asks a fresh question. The yard has a solid 14% strike rate at Sedgefield from a big sample while she herself has only placed once from three runs on good ground here. Usually held up, the 6-year-old has form figures of 3-2545.
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8Stay Hopeful38/100
Stay Hopeful is a fair performer who showed the right attitude when winning a 3m handicap at Down Royal last time. Drops back in trip today to a distance he has never tried, which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer has only had two runners at Sedgefield so far, too few to draw any conclusions. Usually held up, the 6-year-old carries an OR of 81 with recent form of -46731.
KTB verdict
Tom Creen looks the most solid option in a race where course form and an ability to race prominently could be significant assets. His five wins from 19 starts at Sedgefield, combined with the yard's healthy strike rate at the venue and the positive trainer-jockey combination, give him a clear edge. The selection should be able to track the expected lone leader and pounce when required. Fortunate Fella is the obvious danger as a class-dropping useful performer with a good record on good ground, while Royal Time's recent consistency and the trainer's excellent course record cannot be ignored. Kinbara Firstdraft and the front-running Illogical Logic complete the main threats in what looks an open contest.
KTB Selection Tom Creen
This is the narrative read of the 2:20 Sedgefield. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Sedgefield racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Sedgefield results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Sedgefield racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to set the uncontested lead?
Illogical Logic is the only confirmed front-runner and tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many times has Tom Creen won at Sedgefield?
Tom Creen has won five times from 19 runs at Sedgefield.
What is Christian Williams's strike rate at Sedgefield?
Christian Williams has a 36% strike rate at Sedgefield from 25 runs.
Has Fortunate Fella won over this trip before?
Fortunate Fella steps up in trip for the first time today.
What is the trainer and jockey combined record for Tom Creen's connections?
Trainer Sam England and jockey Rebecca Hitchen combine with a 7/27 (26%) record, A/E 1.62 and +£9.53 LSP.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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