What is Ellis Collier's strike rate?

Ellis Collier has won 23 of 365 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 6.3% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Ellis Collier do best at?

Newton Abbot by strike rate: 1 wins from 33 rides (3%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Ellis Collier ride most for?

Christian Williams, with 86 rides since 2022 — 24% of the total. That pairing has won 4 (4.7%).

Is Ellis Collier in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 4 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Ellis Collier's Fair A/E?

0.83, from 363 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Ellis Collier

365 rides in the last 5 seasons · 175 individual horses

As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 8 days ago 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2020→)

from 1 Jan 2022

23–365

Wins / Runs

6.3%

Strike rate

n=365

59 (16%)

Placed

0.83

Fair A/E

n=363 · 0.72 incl. margin

−183.93

£1 level stake

n=364 at SP · −50.5%

£260k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 70 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.83).

Deterministic profile computed from 365 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 4 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Oct–Nov Christian Williams: 4.7% from 86 First rides: 7.6% Claiming: 6.6%

The read

It is weakest at Ffos Las (2.6% over 39 rides) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 1% (n=96, Fair A/E 0.20). The market has consistently overbet claiming rides: 6.6% strike, Fair A/E 0.85 and −159.43 to a £1 stake over 335 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Christian Williams supplies 24% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (4.7%, A/E 0.54). The rider also reads well off a 8-14-day break (16.7%, n=30) and in Chase races (12.1%, n=124). The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 0% over 60 rides, 6.3pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider in Hurdle races: Fair A/E 0.51 across 223 rides (3.1% strike, −184.55 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The standout partner of the record: Uno Mas (GB) — 5 wins from 13 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Oct–Nov.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.3% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

7.6%+1.3

n=171 · A/E 1.23 · £1 −70.30

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

9.1%+2.8

n=22 · A/E 0.67 · £1 −13.88

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

1%−5.3

n=96 · A/E 0.20 · £1 −82.00

When favourite

20%

n=5 · A/E 0.55 · £1 −2.80

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

6.6%+0.3

n=335 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −159.43

Big fields · 14+ runners

0%−6.3

n=26 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −26.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Off a 8-14-day break 16.7% vs 6.3% · n=30

In Chase races 12.1% vs 6.3% · n=124

Off a 61-180-day break 0% vs 6.3% · n=60

In Hurdle races 3.1% vs 6.3% · n=223

At Ffos Las 2.6% vs 6.3% · n=39

Off a break of 180+ days 2.8% vs 6.3% · n=36

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 223 7 3.1% −184.55

Chase 124 15 12.1% +5.62

NH Flat 18 1 5.6% −5.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 155 11 7.1% −75.38

Good to Soft 104 6 5.8% −49.80

Soft 69 3 4.3% −36.50

Heavy 23 3 13% −8.25

Good to Firm 14 0 0% −14.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Ffos Las 39 1 2.6% −35.75

Newton Abbot 33 1 3% −30.00

Chepstow 28 1 3.6% −15.00

Taunton 24 1 4.2% −16.50

Hereford 21 1 4.8% −8.00

Worcester 16 2 12.5% +0.50

Fakenham 16 2 12.5% +4.50

Fontwell 15 0 0% −15.00

Exeter 14 0 0% −14.00

Uttoxeter 13 1 7.7% −7.50

Plumpton 9 3 33.3% +20.00

Ludlow 9 0 0% −9.00

Market Rasen 9 2 22.2% +6.20

Wincanton 9 1 11.1% −1.00

Warwick 8 0 0% −8.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 202 17 8.4% −61.18

Class 4 120 5 4.2% −83.25

Class 3 29 1 3.4% −26.50

Class 2 12 0 0% −12.00

Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 8 1 12.5% 0.38 −5.80

2nd–3rd fav 56 8 14.3% 0.79 −22.13

4th–6th fav 138 13 9.4% 1.20 −7.00

7th+ in betting 162 1 0.6% 0.24 −149.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

82.1% completed · 347 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 124 79.8% 4 7 14 0 0

Hurdle 223 83.4% 4 4 26 1 2

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Henry Box Brown (IRE) 18 3 6 16 Jul 26

To Be Sure (GB) 12 0 3 26 Mar 26

Jony Max (IRE) 12 1 5 22 Dec 24

Zambezi Fix (FR) 8 0 1 3 Jun 26

Good Impression (GB) 8 1 1 21 Mar 25

Miss Fedora (IRE) 7 2 2 1 Dec 25

Uno Mas (GB) 7 0 0 29 Feb 24

Zufal (GB) 6 0 1 24 Jun 25

Old Page (IRE) 6 1 2 11 Mar 25

Moodofthemoment (IRE) 5 1 1 21 Jun 26

Cap Du Nord (FR) 5 0 0 12 Feb 25

Blackacre (GB) 4 0 0 3 Jul 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 175 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 4

Only 4 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

73654561808107

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardChristian Williams

24% of all rides
4.7% SR · A/E 0.54

TrainerRWSR£1

Christian Williams 86 4 4.7% −55.00

Evan Williams 67 5 7.5% −32.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2020→

Archived wins

£285k

Prize money

2024

Best season · 8 wins

Uno Mas (GB) — Jewson Click and Collect Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle Aintree · Oct 2021 · Class 3

£8,714

It's Easy (FR) — Beryl Shaw 90th Birthday Mares' Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Bangor-on-Dee · Nov 2025 · Class 3

£8,226

Jony Max (IRE) — Sky Bet Handicap Chase Fakenham · Nov 2023 · Class 4

£6,776

Notable horses

Uno Mas (GB) Henry Box Brown (IRE) Miss Fedora (IRE) Illogical Logic (FR) Jony Max (IRE) Good Impression (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Getaway (GER) 14.3% · 3–21

Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,979 runs since 2016 (1,029 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.1% from 134.

Mahler (GB) 11.1% · 2–18

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,871 runs since 2014 (786 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.

Sulamani (IRE) 6.3% · 1–16

Progeny have won 11.5% of 4,246 runs since 2008 (278 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.1% from 479. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.4% from 240.

Black Sam Bellamy (IRE) 0% · 0–12

Progeny have won 10.3% of 4,686 runs since 2008 (466 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 145.

Soldier of Fortune (IRE) 0% · 0–9

Progeny have won 11.3% of 5,873 runs since 2013 (684 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 336. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.2% from 249.

Walk In The Park (IRE) 0% · 0–9

Progeny have won 13.3% of 7,024 runs since 2011 (703 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 385 · newest first

The latest 50 of 385 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 20 October 2020 to 27 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee On Subs (FR)T: Christian Williams Jodie Standing's Point-To-Point Recruits Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 3 · 16.5f · Good · 11 ran 9th 200/1

26 Oct 26 Hereford Poetry Of Time (GB)T: Syd Hosie BETTING.BET Play Champion Tipster Juvenile Maiden Hurdle Race (Div II) (gbb Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 3rd 14/1

23 Oct 26 Cheltenham Saint Invictus (IRE)T: Syd Hosie Mccoy Contractors Novices' Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 2 · 20f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 7th 250/1

23 Oct 26 Cheltenham Thankyouandplease (FR)T: Syd Hosie Foundation Developments Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle Race (Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Qualifier)Class 3 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 11th 50/1

18 Oct 26 Sedgefield Illogical Logic (FR)T: David Thompson Celebrating 40 Years Of Vickers Bookmakers Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 21f · Good · 7 ran 4th 3/1

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Saint Invictus (IRE)T: Syd Hosie Dragonbet Backing Welsh Racing Maiden Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 12th 200/1

09 Oct 26 Chepstow Way Out (IRE)T: Syd Hosie LSL Racing Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 15 ran PU 80/1

09 Oct 26 Chepstow Victory Shout (FR)T: Syd Hosie Dragonbet Daily Dragonboosts Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 12th 33/1

09 Oct 26 Chepstow Crossgales King (IRE)T: Syd Hosie Good Intents Marquee Hire Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 23.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 5th 15/2

06 Oct 26 Huntingdon Saucats (FR)T: Syd Hosie 2026/2027 Annual Badges Now On Sale At Huntingdon Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 19.5f · Good · 7 ran 4th 5/1

03 Oct 26 Fontwell Blue Siam (IRE)T: Syd Hosie Attheraces.com Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19f · Good · 9 ran UR 80/1

03 Oct 26 Fontwell King Of The Bronx (IRE)T: Syd Hosie Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 17.5f · Good · 8 ran 6th 80/1

02 Oct 26 Hexham Illogical Logic (FR)T: David Thompson Davey Liddle Belated Birthday Handicap Steeple Chase (Go North Monet's Garden Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 20f · Good · 5 ran 1st 13/8

28 Sep 26 Newton Abbot Pappano (GB)T: Syd Hosie Jodie Standing's Point-to-point Recruits Novices' Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 6 ran 6th 40/1

18 Sep 26 Newton Abbot King Of The Bronx (IRE)T: Syd Hosie Colin Willcocks Memorial Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 21.5f · Good · 6 ran 6th 66/1

18 Sep 26 Newton Abbot Unspeakable (IRE)T: Christian Williams Bayside Signs & Display Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 26f · Good · 7 ran 4th 18/1

18 Sep 26 Newton Abbot Pappano (GB)T: Syd Hosie Edmundson Electrical Cabletec Plymouth Maiden Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 21.5f · Good · 7 ran 5th 20/1

29 Aug 26 Cartmel Illogical Logic (FR)T: David Thompson Cengiz Sadik Memorial Handicap Steeple Chase (For The Cengiz Sadik Memorial Trophy)Class 5 · 21f · Good · 11 ran 1st 7/1

27 Aug 26 Newton Abbot Blue Siam (IRE)T: Syd Hosie Compwiz Ltd - It Solutions For Business Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 26.5f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 4th 18/1

27 Aug 26 Newton Abbot Pivotal Days (GB)T: Syd Hosie Itus Event Support Services Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 17f · Good To Firm · 5 ran PU 50/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 9 Oct 2026: top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 3 runs (won 0) · to 26 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Ellis Collier's strike rate?: Ellis Collier has won 23 of 365 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 6.3% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Ellis Collier do best at?: Newton Abbot by strike rate: 1 wins from 33 rides (3%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Ellis Collier ride most for?: Christian Williams, with 86 rides since 2022 — 24% of the total. That pairing has won 4 (4.7%).
Is Ellis Collier in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 4 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Ellis Collier's Fair A/E?: 0.83, from 363 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.