1:47 Bath
This Class 6 amateur jockeys' handicap over 2m1f24y at Bath on good ground brings together an eleven-strong field of largely limited performers. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Flamingo Rose heading the list on 56, followed by Chillhi (53), Dereham (51), Sanitiser (50) and Lilykoy (48). The race lacks any obvious front-runner and is expected to be a steadily-run, tactical affair in which handy positioning could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
With no one obviously wanting the lead the pace is likely to be no stronger than even, producing a steadily-run race in which those racing handily or able to produce their effort at the right moment will hold the advantage. Most of the field, including the top five in the KTB Fit rankings, are held-up types who will be looking to come from off the pace. The key question is whether any horse can quicken effectively off a steady gallop or whether the race will fall to one that has conserved energy and timed its run to perfection in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Flamingo Rose KTB Selection56/100
Flamingo Rose is a limited performer on the balance of her ratings and race history yet she steps up in trip today as a fresh question while dropping in class. She has shown ability on good ground with two wins from five starts and the yard holds a solid 15% strike rate at Bath from 34 runs with an A/E of 1.09. The jockey has no record at the track, which scores neutrally, while Flamingo Rose has no previous course form on record. Her recent form figures read 5/18-5 and she carries an official rating of 59 from draw 10. As the KTB Selection she is taken to capitalise on the drop in grade and the extra distance in a race that lacks depth.
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2Chillhi53/100
Chillhi is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time and showed little at this track on his only previous visit, finishing ninth. He has two wins from 17 runs on good ground and has placed once at today's trip, but those positives are now buried under a string of poor efforts that read 6-87V9. The trainer's modest 9% strike rate at Bath is at least backed by an above-average A/E of 1.67 from 11 runs, though the jockey remains winless from her nine rides at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, Chillhi will need the steadily-run race to unfold favourably from draw 7 while carrying an OR of 52.
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3Dereham51/100
Dereham is a limited performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without threatening to win, his form reading P-4343. He has never placed in two runs at Bath and steps up in trip today having only managed one placing from five attempts at this distance. The yard's modest 8% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.65 from 75 runs is offset by the jockey's strong 29% strike rate here from seven rides and an A/E of 1.97. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, the 10-year-old will be looking to use that tactical speed in a steadily-run contest from draw 9 while carrying an OR of 51.
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4Sanitiser50/100
Sanitiser is a limited performer who has been out of form for most of this year and finished only ninth on his most recent start, with form figures of 57739-. He has placed once from a single run at Bath and holds a solid record on good ground with three wins from 17 starts, though he drops back in trip today having last run over two and a half miles. The yard's modest 6% strike rate at the track from 49 runs with an A/E of 0.39 adds little confidence, while the jockey has no record at Bath. Usually held up with high confidence, he will need the race to develop in his favour from draw 8 while carrying an OR of 58.
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5Lilykoy48/100
Lilykoy is a limited performer who has shown her best efforts when placed in weaker company, including a recent win and third that produced form figures of 683431. She steps up in trip today having never tried this far before, which asks a fresh question of her stamina. The trainer has a modest 3% strike rate at Bath from 30 runs with an A/E of 0.27, while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge despite a 25% strike rate and A/E of 1.31 from four rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late with high confidence, the 3-year-old will need to see out the distance from draw 6 while carrying an OR of 49.
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6Ocean Heights47/100
Ocean Heights is a limited performer who has been out of the frame on his last four starts and looks vulnerable again from a mark that still looks stiff. He has shown some ability on good ground with two wins from 14 starts but has never won at this trip, is making his first visit to Bath and the trainer has a 0% strike rate from 19 runs here.
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7Stopherandgo47/100
Stopherandgo is a limited performer who has failed to place in nine starts on good ground and arrives with a string of ordinary efforts. He drops back in trip to one he has placed at before though without winning and makes his first appearance at Bath, while the trainer holds a solid 10% strike rate here from 51 runs.
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8Paraone39/100
Paraone has shown very little in three starts to date and looks limited on what he has produced so far. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him, while the trainer's modest record at Bath adds no encouragement.
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9Star of Jupiter36/100
Star of Jupiter is a limited performer who has shown consistent placing form at this track, finishing in the first four on all three visits. He has placed once at today's trip but remains winless on good ground from four attempts, while the trainer's modest 9% strike rate here is backed by a big sample.
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10La Trinite35/100
La Trinite is a limited performer who has been placed on two of her last three starts yet failed to complete last time. She steps up in trip today having shown no win or place from four runs on good ground, while the trainer has a 0% strike rate from five runs at Bath.
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11Assured33/100
Assured is a limited performer who has failed to win or place in four runs at Bath and looks no better on his recent efforts. The drop back in trip is an unknown at this level while his record on good ground is modest, and the trainer has a 0% strike-rate from five runs here.
KTB verdict
Flamingo Rose is the KTB Selection. She is a limited performer yet drops in class, steps up in trip as a fresh question and represents a yard with a solid record at Bath. In a steadily-run race that lacks obvious pace, her ability to race handily could be an asset. The main dangers are likely to come from Chillhi, who has an above-average A/E for his trainer at the track despite his poor recent form, and Dereham, whose jockey has a strong strike rate at Bath and who has been consistent of late.
KTB Selection Flamingo Rose
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:07 UTC, 19 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Flamingo Rose | 18/1 | BetTom |
| Chillhi | 70/1 | 7Bet |
| Dereham | 11/2 | William Hill |
| Sanitiser | 4/1 | William Hill |
| Lilykoy | 9/4 | William Hill |
| Ocean Heights | 5/1 | Bet365 |
| Stopherandgo | 66/1 | BoyleSports |
| Paraone | 33/1 | William Hill |
| Star of Jupiter | 15/2 | BetTom |
| La Trinite | 5/1 | Bet365 |
| Assured | 66/1 | BoyleSports |
This is the narrative read of the 1:47 Bath. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Bath racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Bath results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Bath racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Flamingo Rose the selection despite being a limited performer?
She drops in class, steps up in trip as a fresh question, has shown ability on good ground with two wins from five starts and represents a yard with a 15% strike rate at Bath from 34 runs.
How is the race likely to be run given the pace shape?
It lacks a leader so is expected to be a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy pays.
Which jockey has the strongest record at Bath among the principals?
Mr Ross Birkett with a 29% strike rate and A/E of 1.97 from seven rides.
Which horse has course placing form at Bath?
Sanitiser has placed once from one run here, while Star of Jupiter has finished in the first four on all three visits.
Which trainer has the best A/E figure at Bath among those with runners in this race?
Barry Murphy with an A/E of 1.67 from 11 runs.
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