Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 30 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.82).
Deterministic profile computed from 125 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 5.9%
The read
The yard also reads well off a 15-30-day break (10.3%, n=39) and over 2m1f – 2m4f (8.5%, n=47). One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Tim Duggan Memorial Handicap Chase at Limerick (Dec 2015, £30,000).
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−4.8
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
6.3%+1.5
n=16 · A/E 1.25 · £1 −6.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.8
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.8
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.8
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
When favourite
0%
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.9%+1.1
n=51 · A/E 1.43 · £1 −22.50
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With Callum Pritchard10.5% vs 4.8% · n=38
Off a 15-30-day break10.3% vs 4.8% · n=39
Over 2m1f – 2m4f8.5% vs 4.8% · n=47
On Good going7.5% vs 4.8% · n=67
In Hurdle races6.8% vs 4.8% · n=59
With a new jockey booking2.9% vs 4.8% · n=70 · A/E 0.73
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle5946.8%−31.25
Flat4025%−21.50
Chase1800%−18.00
NH Flat800%−8.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good6757.5%−30.75
Good to Firm2300%−23.00
Good to Soft2000%−20.00
Soft8112.5%+2.00
Standard (AW)400%−4.00
Firm300%−3.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Ffos Las2813.6%−18.00
Newton Abbot2328.7%−9.25
Chepstow1417.1%−1.00
Bath1317.7%−7.50
Sedgefield900%−9.00
Stratford700%−7.00
Market Rasen6116.7%−2.00
Hereford400%−4.00
Wolverhampton (AW)300%−3.00
Brighton300%−3.00
Worcester300%−3.00
Fakenham300%−3.00
Cartmel200%−2.00
Windsor200%−2.00
Newcastle100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 55435.6%−36.25
Class 63326.1%−14.50
Class 42813.6%−18.00
Class 3800%−8.00
Class 2200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite300%0.00−3.00
2nd–3rd fav17317.6%1.00−3.75
4th–6th fav3525.7%0.97−15.00
7th+ in betting7011.4%0.69−57.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f4748.5%−17.50
1m2f – 1m4f2400%−24.00
1m5f – 2m1900%−19.00
2m5f – 3m1600%−16.00
1m – 1m1f9111.1%+4.00
Over 3m9111.1%−5.25
6f – 7f100%−1.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps9766.2%−50.75
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners6258.1%−19.50
5-7 runners3213.1%−28.25
11-13 runners1900%−19.00
14-16 runners800%−8.00
2-4 runners400%−4.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 23 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 23 horses listed, 16 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Alison Thorpe (7) and Debra Hamer (3); 7 had their first archived run for this yard.
1 has since run for another yard; 22 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 10
Only 10 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
··904135000··
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 11.6% of 2,864 runs since 2008 (210 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 7.8% from 102. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 14.6% from 604. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.2% from 113.
Progeny have won 7.8% of 1,200 runs since 2008 (124 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 4.5% from 112. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 3.8% from 131.
Progeny have won 13.5% of 2,217 runs since 2008 (251 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 10.3% from 155.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 289 · newest first
The latest 50 of 289 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 19 December 2015 to 19 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Barry Murphy's strike rate?
Barry Murphy has won 6 of 125 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 4.8% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Barry Murphy in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 10 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Barry Murphy's Fair A/E?
0.82, from 125 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Barry Murphy·SR 4.8%·A/E 0.82
KTB
Cookies on Kickthebookies
We use essential cookies to run the site and remember your betslip. No advertising or tracking cookies, ever. By continuing to use this site, you agree. Cookie policy