Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 20 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 11% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.48).
Deterministic profile computed from 102 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 21 Oct 2026
The read
The yard also reads well over 1m2f – 1m4f (16.3%, n=43). The record reads poorly on Standard (AW) going — 5.9% over 51 runners, 4.9pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Airlie Stud Gallinule Stakes at Curragh (IRE) (May 2005, £52,080). The stable star of the record: Kendergarten Kop (IRE) — 10 wins from 52 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 10.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−10.8
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
12.5%+1.7
n=8 · A/E 2.07 · £1 −4.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−10.8
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−10.8
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−10.8
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
When favourite
42.9%
n=7 · A/E 1.39 · £1 +0.58
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8.9%−1.9
n=45 · A/E 1.78 · £1 −14.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 1m2f – 1m4f16.3% vs 10.8% · n=43
On Standard (AW) going5.9% vs 10.8% · n=51
With a new jockey booking6.3% vs 10.8% · n=64
In Class 613.6% vs 10.8% · n=81
In Flat races10.8% vs 10.8% · n=102 · A/E 1.48
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)5135.9%−35.00
Good25312%+0.00
Good to Firm10220%−4.80
Soft7228.6%+6.25
Good to Soft600%−6.00
Firm3133.3%−0.62
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Wolverhampton (AW)1700%−17.00
Bath15426.7%+11.38
Ffos Las13215.4%+1.25
Lingfield (AW)1200%−12.00
Kempton (AW)11218.2%+1.00
Southwell (AW)800%−8.00
Brighton500%−5.00
Chepstow5120%−2.80
Windsor200%−2.00
Salisbury200%−2.00
Chelmsford City (AW)2150%+2.00
Leicester2150%+1.00
Lingfield200%−2.00
Beverley100%−1.00
Nottingham100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 6811113.6%−19.17
Class 51200%−12.00
Class 4700%−7.00
Class 3200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite10550%1.82+6.58
2nd–3rd fav11327.3%1.72+4.25
4th–6th fav29310.3%1.57+1.00
7th+ in betting5200%0.00−52.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f43716.3%−12.17
1m – 1m1f28414.3%+3.00
6f – 7f2100%−21.00
1m5f – 2m500%−5.00
Under 6f300%−3.00
2m1f – 2m4f200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
202213215.4%−1.00
20251417.1%−4.00
202675810.7%−35.17
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps751013.3%−17.17
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners50510%−15.00
11-13 runners3326.1%−18.00
5-7 runners13430.8%−1.17
14-16 runners500%−5.00
17+ runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 13 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 13 horses listed, 11 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Thomas Dowling (3); 2 had their first archived run for this yard.
1 has since run for another yard; 12 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 4
Only 4 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
132000501710861300
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Im Spartacus (GB) — Airlie Stud Gallinule Stakes Curragh (IRE) · May 2005 · Group 3
Progeny have won 10.8% of 3,106 runs since 2008 (337 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 5.9% from 324. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 14.7% from 312.
Progeny have won 6.4% of 482 runs since 2008 (72 horses).
Invincible Spirit (IRE)28.6% · 2–7
Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,817 runs since 2008 (1,573 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 843.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 841 · newest first
The latest 50 of 841 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 4 January 2005 to 19 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is David Flood's strike rate?
David Flood has won 11 of 102 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 10.8% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is David Flood in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is David Flood's Fair A/E?
1.48, from 102 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
David Flood·SR 10.8%·A/E 1.48
KTB
Cookies on Kickthebookies
We use essential cookies to run the site and remember your betslip. No advertising or tracking cookies, ever. By continuing to use this site, you agree. Cookie policy