Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 12.5% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
8.5%−4.0
n=47 · A/E 0.75 · £1 −23.75
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
20%+7.5
n=10 · A/E 1.15 · £1 −2.25
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
0%−12.5
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
When favourite
50%
n=8 · A/E 1.76 · £1 +3.95
Big fields · 14+ runners
11.8%−0.7
n=17 · A/E 1.59 · £1 −2.50
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 1m2f – 1m4f18.9% vs 12.5% · n=37
On first rides for the horse8.5% vs 12.5% · n=47
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)35411.4%−18.25
Good18316.7%+6.50
Good to Firm10110%−6.00
Good to Soft10110%−5.80
Soft400%−4.00
Heavy3133.3%+1.50
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Chelmsford City (AW)9111.1%−7.00
Lingfield (AW)8112.5%−4.75
Wolverhampton (AW)800%−8.00
Brighton7114.3%−3.00
Southwell (AW)6116.7%+2.00
Newbury6233.3%+2.70
Newmarket500%−5.00
York400%−4.00
Ascot4125%+6.00
Bath4250%+10.50
Windsor200%−2.00
Yarmouth200%−2.00
Kempton (AW)200%−2.00
Newcastle (AW)2150%+1.50
Doncaster200%−2.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 641512.2%−11.00
Class 41800%−18.00
Class 518422.2%−4.05
Class 32150%+8.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite11436.4%1.33+0.95
2nd–3rd fav23313%0.74−11.00
4th–6th fav2727.4%0.82−9.00
7th+ in betting1915.3%1.54−7.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f37718.9%−4.30
1m – 1m1f1900%−19.00
6f – 7f16212.5%+2.00
1m5f – 2m500%−5.00
Under 6f2150%+1.25
2m1f – 2m4f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
202223521.7%+7.70
20231616.3%−12.50
202415213.3%+0.25
20251317.7%−11.00
20261317.7%−10.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners30310%−5.80
5-7 runners20525%−4.75
8-10 runners1300%−13.00
14-16 runners9111.1%+1.00
17+ runners8112.5%−3.50
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 51 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
252500010015231300
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Final Watch (GB) — Peroni Nastro Azzurro Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Ascot · Sep 2022 · Class 3
£10,266
Barwick (GB) — Investec Amateur Derby (In Celebration Of Caroline Beaumont) (Gentleman Amateur Riders' Handicap) Epsom Downs · Aug 2014 · Class 4
£6,863
Landue (GB) — 32Red Amateur Riders' Handicap Kempton (AW) · Nov 2018 · Class 4
Progeny have won 9% of 2,989 runs since 2008 (213 horses).
Acclamation (GB)0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 10% of 19,685 runs since 2008 (1,326 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 194.
Progeny have won 8.8% of 4,223 runs since 2008 (353 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 2.5% from 121. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 2.4% from 124.
Progeny have won 9.9% of 3,711 runs since 2008 (243 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.9% from 641. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 290.
Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,876 runs since 2008 (1,594 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 391 · newest first
The latest 50 of 391 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 22 July 2005 to 19 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Mr Ross Birkett's strike rate?
Mr Ross Birkett has won 10 of 80 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12.5% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Mr Ross Birkett in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 1 ride, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Mr Ross Birkett's Fair A/E?
0.98, from 79 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Mr Ross Birkett·SR 12.5%·A/E 0.98
KTB
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