12:46 Nottingham
This Class 5 nursery handicap over the minimum trip at Nottingham on heavy ground brings together eight two-year-olds, several of whom remain unproven on the surface. KTB's Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Dowman on 56/100, with Bear Lee just a point behind on 55 and the remainder ranging from 51 down to 39. The race looks competitive on paper, with most runners carrying similar official ratings in the low-to-mid 70s, though a couple sit lower, and the heavy conditions add an extra layer of uncertainty given that the majority have no experience of such ground.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as genuinely run with high confidence, featuring a front-runner likely to be pressed by several handy types. The Resdev Roman is the most obvious leader from stall eight, but will face pressure from a cluster of prominent runners including Dowman, Chief Minister, Wolf's Gallop, Defiant Dream and Sue's Last Chance. This sets up a fair test where the ability to race handily without using up too much energy early should be important, and the key question is which of the pace pressers can maintain their effort best in the testing conditions.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Dowman KTB Selection56/100
Dowman arrives with the highest KTB Fit rating of 56 and is the clear selection. A consistent performer shown by his recent form figures of 212523, he holds an official rating of 73 and should be suited by the prominent run-style from draw five, racing handily on or close to the lead. George Boughey boasts an 18% strike rate at Nottingham from 57 runs while Hector Crouch has a 14% record there from 144 rides, though their combined trainer-jockey mark stands at 4/32 (13%). Unproven on heavy ground and with no previous course form, he remains an interesting contender in a race where his proven ability to race prominently could be an asset in the expected genuinely-run pace.
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2Bear Lee55/100
Bear Lee is rated just a point behind the selection on KTB Fit at 55/100 and steps back up in trip after a drop in class. With an official rating of 74 and recent form figures of 145408, this full sister to Blakefell comes from a dam who has produced five winners from six other runners. Usually held up to produce a late effort, she will need the race to unfold favourably given the prominent pressure expected up front. The Easterby team show a 7% strike rate at Nottingham from 89 runs and their jockey Billy Garritty is 13% from 30 rides here, though the pair are 61/608 (10%) combined; unproven on heavy ground with no course form.
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3Chief Minister51/100
Chief Minister holds a KTB Fit of 51 and brings some pedigree interest as a half-brother to Listed winner Anaisa from a dam who has had two winners from three other runners. Rated 69 officially with form figures of 95829, he is expected to race prominently from a wide draw of nine with high-confidence run-style. Eve Johnson Houghton has a solid 14% strike rate at Nottingham from 137 runs and Clifford Lee is 13% from 152 rides, the pair combining at 3/9 (33%). Like most of his rivals he is unproven on heavy ground and has no course form, but his prominent racing style could see him involved in the early battle in this genuinely-run race.
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4Wolf's Gallop47/100
Wolf's Gallop is the fourth principal with a KTB Fit of 47 and tries first-time headgear having shown placed form at this track. His official rating is 68 and recent form reads 733482, including a third-place finish here on his sole course visit. A prominent runner with high confidence from draw seven, he should be on or close to the lead in a race that looks set to be contested up front. Tom Lacey has a 0% strike rate at Nottingham from just two runs while Kieran O'Neill is 5% from 147 rides; unproven on heavy ground, he represents a yard that will hope the headgear sparks improvement on this testing surface.
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5The Resdev Roman45/100
The Resdev Roman is the likely front-runner in a genuinely-run race, with recent form of 7716 and an official rating of 73. A half-sister to Tryst from a productive dam, she has one run on heavy without placing and is trained by the Easterbys who are 7% at Nottingham; Joanna Mason takes the ride at 8% here.
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6Defiant Dream45/100
Defiant Dream is rated 51 officially with form figures of 265044 and steps out from the inside draw. A half-sister to Whernside from a winning dam, this prominent racer is unproven on heavy for a yard with a 7% Nottingham strike rate; Tyler Heard rides at 10% locally.
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7Sue's Last Chance40/100
Sue's Last Chance has recent form of 658003 and an official rating of 69. A half-brother to Elliott from a dam with one winner from two other runners, he is another prominent type unproven on heavy ground for the Faheys who are 0% at Nottingham from seven runs; Barry McHugh is the jockey.
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8Penny Capri39/100
Penny Capri holds a KTB Fit of 39 and an official rating of 65 with form figures of 665190. Usually settling in mid-division, this runner is unproven on heavy for James Owen who has a 14% strike rate at Nottingham; Robert Havlin takes the mount at 11% here.
KTB verdict
Dowman stands out as the KTB Selection with the highest Fit rating and a consistent profile that should suit the prominent run-style in a genuinely-run contest. His recent form marks him down as a reliable performer at this level, and the Boughey-Crouch combination has shown enough at the track to suggest he can handle the assignment despite being unproven on heavy ground. The main dangers are likely to come from Bear Lee, who drops in class with a strong family background and late kick, and Chief Minister, whose prominent racing and half-brother pedigree to a Listed winner give him a solid chance if he copes with the conditions. Wolf's Gallop cannot be entirely dismissed with his course placing and the addition of headgear, while the pace influence of The Resdev Roman adds another layer to what looks a typically competitive nursery.
KTB Selection Dowman
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:30am, 28 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Dowman | 7/2 | Bet365, 12:10am |
| Bear Lee | 5/1 | 7Bet, 12:10am |
| Chief Minister | 5/1 | 7Bet, 12:10am |
| Wolf's Gallop | 7/2 | Bet365, 12:10am |
| The Resdev Roman | 9/1 | 7Bet, 12:10am |
| Defiant Dream | 12/1 | Bet Victor, 12:10am |
| Sue's Last Chance | 13/2 | Bet Victor, 12:10am |
| Penny Capri | 12/1 | Bet Victor, 12:10am |
This is the narrative read of the 12:46 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Nottingham results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Nottingham racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to make the running?
The Resdev Roman tends to make the running or race on the pace and is identified as the front-runner in a genuinely-run pace shape.
How many of these runners have previous experience of heavy ground?
Only The Resdev Roman has a run on heavy ground, where she failed to win or place; all the others are unproven on the surface.
Which runner has the strongest Nottingham trainer record?
Eve Johnson Houghton has a 14% strike rate at Nottingham from 137 runs, matching James Owen's 14% from 29 runs and ahead of George Boughey's 18% from 57 runs when considering volume.
What is the pedigree highlight for Chief Minister?
He is a half-brother to Anaisa, a Listed winner who scored twice from 21 runs.
Which principals are expected to race prominently?
Dowman, Chief Minister and Wolf's Gallop are all prominent runners, joining several others in pressing the pace in a genuinely-run race.
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