A Likely Story (IRE)
A Likely Story (IRE) is 2 from 57. Hasn't won since Aug 2018. Last raced off 49, 33lb below the career-high mark.
- 2–57Wins / Runs
- 3.5%Strike rate
- 24 (42.1%)Placed
- −37.00£1 level staken=57 at SP
- 0.32Fair A/E n=57 · 0.25 incl. margin
- 82Highest OR
- 16dBetween runs (median)longest 197 d
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
Best recent Speed 94
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 4 Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (AW) | 12 | 96B | 88.5 | — |
| Good | 11 | 94A | 83 | — |
| Soft | 8 | 92C | 74.5 | — |
| Good to Firm | 8 | 109C | 86 | — |
| Heavy | 4 | 112C | 59.5 | — |
| Good to Soft | 4 | 86C | 70 | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 4 Nov 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6f – 7f | 38 | 109C | 85 | — |
| Under 6f | 8 | 112C | 63 | — |
| 1m – 1m1f | 1 | — | — | — |
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 47 figures from 47 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style is derived from in-running commentary, which our data provider does not supply for this horse's races.
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 11.8% of 16,034 runs since Apr 2008 (1,161 horses).
Strongest on firm going: 20.7% from 198. Weakest on soft going: 7.9% from 1,194.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 198 | 41 | 20.7% | +8.9 | — |
| Good to Firm | 3,251 | 399 | 12.3% | +0.5 | 1 from 8 |
| Good | 3,146 | 328 | 10.4% | −1.4 | 0 from 11 |
| Good to Soft | 1,310 | 130 | 9.9% | −1.9 | 0 from 5 |
| Soft | 1,194 | 94 | 7.9% | −3.9 | 0 from 10 |
| Heavy | 273 | 25 | 9.2% | −2.6 | 0 from 8 |
| Standard (AW) | 6,662 | 883 | 13.3% | +1.5 | 1 from 15 |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 3,861 | 521 | 13.5% | +1.7 | 0 from 12 |
| 6f – 7f | 8,009 | 951 | 11.9% | +0.1 | 2 from 43 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 2,755 | 289 | 10.5% | −1.3 | 0 from 2 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 1,025 | 102 | 10% | −1.8 | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 273 | 26 | 9.5% | −2.3 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 102 | 10 | 9.8% | −2 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | −0.7 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Apr 2008 · as at 3 Nov 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
9 siblings in the archive, 7 winners — best of them Polished Rock (IRE) (6 wins).
The wins came over 7f–2m6½f; the highest grade won is Class 4 (Polished Rock (IRE)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polished Rock (IRE) | 40 | 6 | 1m2f–2m6½f | Class 4 |
| Stay De Night (IRE) | 6 | 2 | 1m–1m½f | — |
| Late Day Sun (IRE) | 6 | 2 | 1m–1m2f | — |
| Encrypted Message (IRE) | 24 | 2 | 7f–1m3f | — |
| Magic Charm (IRE) | 41 | 2 | 1m | — |
| Camachita (IRE) | 7 | 1 | 7f | — |
| Walk Beside Me (USA) | 6 | 1 | 1m2½f | — |
| Camachero (IRE) | 21 | 0 | — | — |
| Estibelle (IRE) | 1 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (AW) | 15 | 1 | 7% | −4.00 |
| Good | 11 | 0 | 0% | −11.00 |
| Soft | 10 | 0 | 0% | −10.00 |
| Heavy | 8 | 0 | 0% | −8.00 |
| Good to Firm | 8 | 1 | 13% | +1.00 |
| Good to Soft | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 5 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundalk (AW) | 15 | 1 | 7% | −4.00 |
| Fairyhouse | 8 | 0 | 0% | −8.00 |
| Navan | 7 | 0 | 0% | −7.00 |
| Curragh | 6 | 1 | 17% | +3.00 |
| Bellewstown | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Cork | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Naas | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Tipperary | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Limerick | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Sligo | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Down Royal | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Roscommon | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Gowran Park | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Curragh (IRE) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Leopardstown | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6f – 7f | 43 | 2 | 5% | −23.00 |
| Under 6f | 12 | 0 | 0% | −12.00 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Smullen | 16 | 0 | 0% | −16.00 |
| Colin Keane | 12 | 1 | 8% | −3.00 |
| Danny Sheehy | 11 | 1 | 9% | +0.00 |
| Leigh Roche | 6 | 0 | 0% | −6.00 |
| Andrew Slattery | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| N G McCullagh | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Rory Cleary | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Karen Kenny | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Siobhan Rutledge | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| J M Sheridan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Nathan Crosse | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Killian Leonard | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Paul J Jones | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Visor | 28 | 1 | 4% | −19.00 |
| None | 18 | 1 | 6% | −7.00 |
| Cheekpieces | 6 | 0 | 0% | −6.00 |
| Blinkers | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Tongue tie + visor | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Tongue tie + blinkers | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 6 | 0 | 0% | −6.00 |
| 2019 | 14 | 0 | 0% | −14.00 |
| 2018 | 14 | 2 | 14% | +6.00 |
| 2017 | 10 | 0 | 0% | −10.00 |
| 2016 | 11 | 0 | 0% | −11.00 |
| 2015 | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
Quick answers
- How many races has A Likely Story won?
- A Likely Story (IRE) won 2 of 57 archived starts between 2015 and 2020, a strike rate of 3.5%. Placed 24 times in total (42.1% of starts).
- Who trained A Likely Story?
- A Likely Story (IRE) was trained by T G McCourt on the most recent run on record, at Bellewstown on 26 August 2020.
- Who is A Likely Story's sire?
- A Likely Story (IRE) is by Exceed and Excel (AUS) out of Where We Left Off (GB), whose sire is Dr Devious.
- What going does A Likely Story prefer?
- A Likely Story (IRE) has the best record on good to firm going: 1 win from 8 starts (12.5%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is A Likely Story's official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 49, from the run on 26 August 2020. The highest on record is 82.
- What is A Likely Story's sire's record?
- Exceed and Excel (AUS)'s progeny in our archive have won 11.8% of 16,034 runs since Apr 2008 (1,161 horses), Flat and jumps together. Strongest on firm going: 20.7% from 198. Weakest on soft going: 7.9% from 1,194.
- Who are A Likely Story's siblings?
- Out of Where We Left Off (GB), A Likely Story (IRE) has 9 other produce in our archive, 7 of them winners. Most wins: Polished Rock (IRE) (6). Highest grade won: Class 4 (Polished Rock (IRE)). The wins came over 7f–2m6½f. As at Nov 2026.