Horse profile
Cerendipity (IRE)
by Sageburg (IRE) out of Check The Forecast (IRE) (Shernazar)
28 runs · 12 courses · from Oct 2021
As at 25 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: GB, Ireland & France · 2005–present, updated daily
4 wins · 4 courses
Last run 4 Apr 2026 · 8th of 11
Last raced off OR 113
KTB Profile
Cerendipity is a 4 from 28 gelding with all wins on turf. He has scored at four different courses, including a Class 3 handicap chase at Newcastle over 2m5f – 3m on good to soft in Mar 2025 off an official rating of 122. Three of his four wins came in handicaps, two on soft ground. Ridden prominently in six of ten analysed runs, he finished 8 of 11 at Haydock in Apr 2026. He last ran off an official rating of 113, 10lb below his highest ever mark.
Based on 28 archived runs · run-style from 14 commented runs since Oct 2024 · updated 25 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance
Typically prominent
OR ↓ 10lb off peak
- 4–28Wins / Runs
- 14.3%Strike rate
- 10 (35.7%)Placed
- −3.63£1 level staken=28 at SP
- 0.85Fair A/E n=28 · 0.74 incl. margin
- 123Highest OR
- 60dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
Official rating113↓ 10lb off peak
113
113–123
KTB Speed and Rating
KTB Speed
Best recent Speed 93
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
Jumps
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 25 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Soft | 9 | 121C | 93 | 3 runs · 97 / 93 |
| Soft | 8 | 139A | 88 | 2 runs · 86 / 63.5 |
| Good | 3 | 103A | 68 | 1 run · — |
| Heavy | 2 | 118B | 93.5 | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 25 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 14 | 118B | 93 | 5 runs · 97 / 86 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 4 | 139A | 105.5 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 3 | 93C | 75 | — |
| Over 3m | 1 | — | — | 1 run · — |
Of 28 runs looked at, 6 have no figure: did not complete (3) · obstacles omitted — the race ran a shortened course (3).
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 22 figures from 28 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style from 14 analysed runs since Oct 2024
- Prominent 11 (79%) · 1 win
- Held up 2 (14%) · 0 wins
- Mid-division 1 (7%) · 0 wins
Pedigree intelligence
Sire
Progeny in our archive have won 10% of 3,475 runs since Jan 2008 (414 horses).
Strongest on heavy going: 13.4% from 389. Weakest on standard (aw) going: 2.4% from 293. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13.2% from 355.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 2 | 0 | 0% | −10 | — |
| Good to Firm | 45 | 7 | 15.6% | +5.6 | — |
| Good | 1,067 | 108 | 10.1% | +0.1 | 0 from 4 |
| Good to Soft | 647 | 71 | 11% | +1 | 1 from 9 |
| Soft | 1,031 | 100 | 9.7% | −0.3 | 2 from 11 |
| Heavy | 389 | 52 | 13.4% | +3.4 | 1 from 4 |
| Standard (AW) | 293 | 7 | 2.4% | −7.6 | — |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 44 | 6 | 13.6% | +3.6 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 292 | 22 | 7.5% | −2.5 | — |
| 1m – 1m1f | 320 | 29 | 9.1% | −0.9 | — |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 215 | 16 | 7.4% | −2.6 | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 965 | 97 | 10.1% | +0.1 | 1 from 4 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 1,228 | 123 | 10% | 0 | 2 from 19 |
| 2m5f – 3m | 355 | 47 | 13.2% | +3.2 | 1 from 4 |
| Over 3m | 56 | 6 | 10.7% | +0.7 | 0 from 1 |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 25 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
Dam
Check The Forecast (IRE) (Shernazar)
4 siblings in the archive, 4 winners — best of them Another Rebel (IRE) (3 wins).
The wins came over 1m7½f–3m; the highest grade won is Class 3 (Bright Forecast (IRE)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another Rebel (IRE) | 20 | 3 | 2m½f–2m6f | — |
| Bright Forecast (IRE) | 4 | 2 | 1m7½f–2m½f | Class 3 |
| Bitsandpieces (IRE) | 17 | 2 | 2m–3m | — |
| Sizing Killarney (IRE) | 1 | 1 | 2m | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soft | 11 | 2 | 18% | −0.25 |
| Good to Soft | 9 | 1 | 11% | −7.38 |
| Good | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Heavy | 4 | 1 | 25% | +8.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 3 | 16 | 1 | 6% | −14.38 |
| Class 4 | 7 | 3 | 43% | +15.75 |
| Class 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Class 5 | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Class 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wetherby | 7 | 1 | 14% | −3.25 |
| Haydock | 6 | 0 | 0% | −6.00 |
| Newcastle | 3 | 1 | 33% | −1.38 |
| Catterick | 2 | 1 | 50% | +10.00 |
| Doncaster | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Sedgefield | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Carlisle | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Stratford | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Perth | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Uttoxeter | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Bangor-on-Dee | 1 | 1 | 100% | +6.00 |
| Sandown | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 19 | 2 | 11% | +0.00 |
| 2m5f – 3m | 4 | 1 | 25% | −2.38 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 4 | 1 | 25% | −0.25 |
| Over 3m | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Scholfield | 6 | 1 | 17% | +1.00 |
| Daryl Jacob | 5 | 1 | 20% | −1.25 |
| Gavin Sheehan | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Peter Kavanagh | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Danny McMenamin | 3 | 1 | 33% | −1.38 |
| Thomas Willmott | 2 | 1 | 50% | +10.00 |
| Ryan Mania | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Jack Power | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Sean Quinlan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Ross Chapman | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | 23 | 4 | 17% | +1.37 |
| Cheekpieces | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Tongue tie | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| 2025 | 8 | 1 | 13% | −6.38 |
| 2024 | 6 | 1 | 17% | +1.00 |
| 2023 | 7 | 2 | 29% | +8.75 |
| 2022 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| 2021 | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Type | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase | 22 | 3 | 14% | −9.63 |
| Hurdle | 4 | 1 | 25% | +8.00 |
| NH Flat | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · 4 runs | ||||||||||
| 04 Apr 26+13d | Haydock | JCB Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Sat close to the front pack early - drifted through the pack and needed urging by the 10th - under pressure from the 15th before dropping away well beaten | 8/11 | 1½ | 11-2 | 113 | 57A | 98A | Peter Kavanagh | 16/1 |
| 22 Mar 26+36d | Carlisle | Racing Post+ Subscription Go North Monet's Garden Series Final Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Held up in the pack - nudged for effort 4 out - found nothing - well held in 9th | 9/13 | 2¼ | 11-9 | 117 | 47C | 112C | Gavin Sheehan | 13/2 |
| 14 Feb 26+28d | Haydock | QED Scaffolding Ltd Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Settled towards the back - hampered for room in 4th - pushed along and unable to quicken after the 11th - lost ground at the third-last and unable to threaten leaders thereafter | 5/11 | 1¾ | 10-13 | 120 | 41A | 116A | Gavin Sheehan | 15/2 |
| 17 Jan 26+22d | Haydock | Sky Bet Extra Places Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Sat behind the front group early - clipped 6th and lost momentum after a hesitant leap 4 out - dropped away steadily to finish sixth | 6/8 | 3¾ | 11-11 | 122 | 93A | 117A | Jack Power | 13/2 |
| 2025 · 8 runs | ||||||||||
| 26 Dec 25+41d | Wetherby | William Hill Keep Your Raceday Positive Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Racing handy - brought down and departed 4 out | F/9 | — | 11-10 | 122 | — | — | Peter Kavanagh | 7/2J |
| 15 Nov 25+16d | Wetherby | Boyle Sports Home Of The Early Payout Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Prominent early but ragged over 2nd - dropped back by 6th - settled in the pack - regained ground by 11th to share 2nd - driven from 4 out - weakened 2 out - finished 4th | 4/6 | 2¼ | 10-12 | 122 | 86A | 118B | Gavin Sheehan | 13/8F |
| 30 Oct 25+188d | Stratford | Happy Birthday Samantha Borland Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Settled behind the main group early - moved into 3rd at the 10th - driven after the second-last then dropped back before the final fence - stayed on well to snatch second right at the line | 2/8 | 4 | 10-12 | 122 | 97A | 132B | Gavin Sheehan | 9/1 |
| 25 Apr 25+20d | Perth | Helen Tudhope Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Sat in 3rd early - stumbled at the 12th - dropped away and faded 2 out - finished 4th | 4/8 | 5 | 11-1 | 123 | 74B | 117B | Danny McMenamin | 4/1 |
| 05 Apr 25+21d | Newcastle | Val And Kath Bollado Memorial Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Handy from the start - moved into second at the 7th - lost ground to the winner 3 out - shared second at the last then held for third without responding on the run-in | 3/7 | 1¼ | 11-9 | 123 | 68A | 123B | Peter Kavanagh | 11/4 |
| 15 Mar 25+35d | Newcastle | Chase At Victors Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Settled second early - error at 12th - moved into command before 4 out - pushed along approaching 2 out - challenged at the last with a fine leap - kept finding more to the line | 1/4 | 11-1 | 122 | 93C | 127C | Danny McMenamin | 8/13F | |
| 08 Feb 25+16d | Uttoxeter | Lisa Mitten Turns 60 Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Settled just behind the pace - made ground steadily approaching 3 out - pressed for effort after 2 out - hit the last and couldn't find more on the run-in | 4/8 | ¾ | 10-9 | 123 | — | 121A | Danny McMenamin | 3/1 |
| 23 Jan 25+33d | Wetherby | William Hill B.O.G. Is Back Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Up with pace or in command until 4 out - scratchy over 2 out - unable to close on leader at final fence and stayed on to finish second | 2/8 | 2¾ | 10-13 | 122 | 93A | 130B | Nick Scholfield | 9/4F |
| 2024 · 6 runs | ||||||||||
| 21 Dec 24+66d | Haydock | Betfred 'Bet Builder' Handicap Chase Sat handy behind the front group early - eased back into the pack soon after - improved position on the inner approaching 4 out to sit 3rd - kept going to take 2nd on the run to the line - well held by the winner | 2/8 | 7 | 11-8 | 122 | 69A | 131B | Nick Scholfield | 11/2 |
| 16 Oct 24+179d | Wetherby | Bobby Renton Handicap Chase Handy in third early - shadowed the front-runner before a blunder at the 10th - dropped away 3 out and beaten late | 6/8 | 4¾ | 11-2 | 123 | 66A | 112A | Nick Scholfield | 13/2 |
| 20 Apr 24+32d | Bangor-on-Dee | Wynnstay Handicap Chase | 1/9 | 11-11 | 117 | — | 141B | Nick Scholfield | 6/1 | |
| 19 Mar 24+21d | Wetherby | Bella Coulson's 50th Birthday Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) | 5/6 | 2 | 10-7 | 116 | 75B | 109B | Sean Quinlan | 7/2J |
| 27 Feb 24+30d | Catterick | Easby Abbey Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) | 3/5 | 2 | 11-4 | 117 | 94C | 119B | Daryl Jacob | 10/3 |
| 28 Jan 24+29d | Doncaster | SBK Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race) | F/8 | — | 12-0 | 118 | — | — | Nick Scholfield | 11/2 |
| 2023 · 7 runs | ||||||||||
| 30 Dec 23+14d | Haydock | Betfred 'Hot Shots' Handicap Chase | PU/7 | — | 11-3 | 119 | — | — | Daryl Jacob | 9/4F |
| 16 Dec 23+17d | Doncaster | bet365 Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) | 3/9 | 3¾ | 10-13 | 119 | 97B | 123A | Nick Scholfield | 4/1 |
| 29 Nov 23+20d | Wetherby | Watch Racing TV In HD Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race) | 1/5 | 11-8 | 116 | 90C | 122B | Daryl Jacob | 11/4 | |
| 09 Nov 23+243d | Sedgefield | Vickers.Bet Independent Family Owned Bookmaker Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race) | 3/8 | 1¼ | 11-12 | 118 | 68A | 125A | Daryl Jacob | 7/2 |
| 11 Mar 23+35d | Sandown | European Breeders' Fund Betfair 'National Hunt' Novices' Handicap Hurdle Final (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) | 10/16 | 1½ | 11-3 | 121 | — | 110C | Daryl Jacob | 25/1 |
| 04 Feb 23+23d | Wetherby | William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) | 2/7 | 1¾ | 11-7 | — | 97B | 130A | Ross Chapman | 4/1 |
| 12 Jan 23+13d | Catterick | EBF 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) | 1/6 | 10-13 | — | 118B | 135B | Thomas Willmott | 11/1 | |
| 2022 · 1 run | ||||||||||
| 30 Dec 22+386d | Haydock | Betfred TV EBF 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) | 5/11 | 1¼ | 10-11 | — | 139A | 117A | Thomas Willmott | 20/1 |
| 2021 · 2 runs | ||||||||||
| 09 Dec 21+53d | Newcastle | MansionBet Watch And Bet Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race) | 5/16 | ½ | 11-0 | — | 121C | 122A | Ryan Mania | 7/1 |
| 17 Oct 21 | Sedgefield | Get Hugh Taylor's Tips On attheraces.com Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race) | 4/7 | shd | 10-13 | — | 103A | 102A | Ryan Mania | 12/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Cerendipity won?
- Cerendipity (IRE) won 4 of 28 archived starts between 2021 and 2026, a strike rate of 14.3%. Placed 10 times in total (35.7% of starts).
- Who trains Cerendipity?
- Cerendipity (IRE) is trained by Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith, who saddled the horse on its most recent run on 4 April 2026.
- Who is Cerendipity's sire?
- Cerendipity (IRE) is by Sageburg (IRE) out of Check The Forecast (IRE), whose sire is Shernazar.
- What going does Cerendipity prefer?
- Cerendipity (IRE) has the best record on heavy going: 1 win from 4 starts (25%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Cerendipity's official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 113, from the run on 4 April 2026. The highest on record is 123.
- What is Cerendipity's sire's record?
- Sageburg (IRE)'s progeny in our archive have won 10% of 3,475 runs since Jan 2008 (414 horses), Flat and jumps together. Strongest on heavy going: 13.4% from 389. Weakest on standard (aw) going: 2.4% from 293. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13.2% from 355.
- Who are Cerendipity's siblings?
- Out of Check The Forecast (IRE), Cerendipity (IRE) has 4 other produce in our archive, 4 of them winners. Most wins: Another Rebel (IRE) (3). Highest grade won: Class 3 (Bright Forecast (IRE)). The wins came over 1m7½f–3m. As at Oct 2026.