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Trainer profile

Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith

495 runners in the last 5 seasons · 76 individual horses
As at 8 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Non-runners: 3.5% of 256 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 8 Nov 2026.
Last runner yesterday
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2024→)
from 1 Jan 2022
76–495
Wins / Runs
15.4%
Strike rate
n=495
173 (35%)
Placed
1.13
Fair A/E
n=494 · 0.96 incl. margin
−54.13
£1 level stake
n=495 at SP · −10.9%
£979k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
11.9%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 100 runners a season, winning with 15% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.13). The yard is quiet just now — 1 winner in the last fortnight, below its own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 495 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 8 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Dec–Jan 30.9% when favourite Peter Kavanagh: 13.6% from 162 Sends off the favourite in 16% of races
The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 8.6% (n=93, Fair A/E 0.84). Right now the yard is in a quiet spell: 1 from 16 runners in the last 14 days (6.3%, 9.1pts below the 15.4% baseline). Peter Kavanagh rides 33% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (13.6%, A/E 1.05) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well over 2m5f – 3m (24.2%, n=132) and beyond 3m (25.6%, n=39). The market has also underrated the yard in Chase races: Fair A/E 1.22 across 174 runners (22.4% strike, +43.78 to a £1 stake). The record reads poorly over 6f – 7f — 5.6% over 36 runners, 9.8pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Heather Honey (GB) — 5 wins from 14 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Dec–Jan.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 15.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
8.6%−6.8
n=93 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −50.25
New recruits · first run for the yard
9.1%−6.3
n=55 · A/E 1.30 · £1 −12.50
Debutants · first career start
0%−15.4
n=22 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −22.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−15.4
n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
33.3%+17.9
n=15 · A/E 2.27 · £1 +3.97
When favourite
30.9%
n=81 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −13.09
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
14.4%−1.0
n=181 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −6.07
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−15.4
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 15.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Over 2m5f – 3m 24.2% vs 15.4% · n=132
Beyond 3m 25.6% vs 15.4% · n=39
In Chase races 22.4% vs 15.4% · n=174
Over 6f – 7f 5.6% vs 15.4% · n=36
On last-time-out winners 23.3% vs 15.4% · n=73
With Jack Power 25% vs 15.4% · n=32
This filter uses derived form angles computed for 7.7% of the archive so far (as at 8 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 246 32 13% −62.07
Chase 174 39 22.4% +43.78
Flat 58 5 8.6% −18.84
NH Flat 17 0 0% −17.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good to Soft 188 28 14.9% −47.54
Good 153 24 15.7% +14.87
Soft 115 20 17.4% −18.21
Standard (AW) 24 3 12.5% +9.00
Good to Firm 9 0 0% −9.00
Heavy 6 1 16.7% −3.25

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Wetherby 63 10 15.9% −21.09
Newcastle 49 10 20.4% −16.37
Catterick 44 10 22.7% +5.94
Carlisle 39 4 10.3% −18.50
Market Rasen 36 7 19.4% +2.50
Haydock 32 5 15.6% −2.87
Doncaster 29 4 13.8% −7.12
Sedgefield 28 6 21.4% +2.50
Bangor-on-Dee 26 6 23.1% +20.50
Hexham 23 1 4.3% +0.00
Uttoxeter 22 3 13.6% −11.37
Southwell 18 1 5.6% −6.00
Newcastle (AW) 16 3 18.8% +17.00
Southwell (AW) 7 0 0% −7.00
Aintree 6 1 16.7% −1.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 175 24 13.7% −63.49
Class 5 173 29 16.8% +35.26
Class 3 76 11 14.5% −12.92
Class 2 30 5 16.7% −11.37
Class 6 24 4 16.7% +2.16
Class 1 17 3 17.6% −3.77

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 95 29 30.5% 1.01 −11.59
2nd–3rd fav 132 29 22% 1.28 +6.46
4th–6th fav 158 15 9.5% 1.19 +9.00
7th+ in betting 110 3 2.7% 0.86 −58.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
86.9% completed · 420 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 174 85.1% 7 4 15 0 0
Hurdle 246 88.2% 6 2 21 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Free Pic (IRE) 17 3 6 11 May 26
Glen Road (IRE)from Sue Smith 15 4 7 27 Oct 26
Hawkseye View (GB)from Sue Smith · then Lisa Harrison 15 1 4 11 Apr 26
Heather Honey (GB)from Sue Smith 14 5 7 7 Nov 26
Prairie Wolf (IRE)from Sue Smith 14 4 6 30 Oct 26
Judicature (GB) 14 1 2 23 Sep 26
It's Maisy (IRE)from Sue Smith 14 1 3 2 May 26
Paddy O'mahler (IRE)from Sue Smith 13 3 5 31 Oct 26
Cerendipity (IRE)from Sue Smith 13 1 4 4 Apr 26
Romeo Brown (GB)from Sue Smith 13 2 4 20 Mar 26
Valence D'aumont (FR)from Sue Smith 13 3 5 19 Mar 26
Konfusion (GB)from Sue Smith 12 5 8 6 Nov 26
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 76 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 44 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Sue Smith (37) and Tjade Collier (3); 16 had their first archived run for this yard.

2 have since run for another yard; 58 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Quiet spell
1 from 16 6.3% · −9.1pts vs baseline
Last 14 days6.3%
5-season base15.4%
Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
1815191314146331371419
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderPeter Kavanagh
33% of all rides
13.6% SR · A/E 1.05
RiderRWSR£1
Peter Kavanagh 162 22 13.6% +21.95
Danny McMenamin 95 21 22.1% −20.07
Jack Power 32 8 25% +19.35
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2024→
76
Archived wins
£979k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 50 wins
Grand Geste (IRE) — William Hill Half A Mill Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) Haydock · Feb 2026 · Class 1
£56,950
Konfusion (GB) — BetMGM Rehearsal Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) Newcastle · Nov 2025 · Class 1
£39,865
Konfusion (GB) — William Hill Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) Wetherby · Dec 2025 · Class 1
£29,363
Notable horses
Heather Honey (GB) Konfusion (GB) Glen Road (IRE) Prairie Wolf (IRE) Aire Spray (IRE) The Paddy Pie (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Sageburg (IRE) 18.6% · 11–59
Progeny have won 10% of 3,488 runs since 2012 (416 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.4% from 389. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 2.7% from 295. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13.2% from 355.
Getaway (GER) 23.3% · 7–30
Progeny have won 11.3% of 11,006 runs since 2016 (1,031 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.1% from 134.
Yeats (IRE) 14.8% · 4–27
Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,849 runs since 2013 (707 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.2% from 820.
Westerner (GB) 16% · 4–25
Progeny have won 12.1% of 11,861 runs since 2009 (945 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.
Mahler (GB) 12.5% · 3–24
Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,888 runs since 2014 (790 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.
Invincible Spirit (IRE) 5.3% · 1–19
Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,871 runs since 2008 (1,574 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 844.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 8 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 495 · newest first

The latest 50 of 495 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 29 October 2024 to 7 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
07 Nov 26 Aintree Heather Honey (GB)J: Peter Kavanagh Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Race (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 24.5f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 8th 16/1
06 Nov 26 Aintree Konfusion (GB)J: Adam Wedge BetMGM Handicap Steeple Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 25f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 5th 12/1
05 Nov 26 Newcastle The Paddy Pie (IRE)J: Oscar Palmer Equine Products National Hunt Trainers League Handicap Steeple Chase (Go North Monet's Garden Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 20f · Good · 9 ran 7th 40/1
05 Nov 26 Newcastle Aire Spray (IRE)J: Oscar Palmer Racing At The Heart Of Our Community Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Brindisi Breeze Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 24f · Good · 8 ran 4th 3/1F
03 Nov 26 Sedgefield Midnight Bella (GB)J: Danny McMenamin MW Civils And Groundworks Mares' Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 5 ran UR 5/2
01 Nov 26 Carlisle Grand Geste (IRE)J: Danny McMenamin Pricedup Boosts And Bog Cumberland Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 26f · Good · 8 ran 5th 100/30
01 Nov 26 Carlisle Patrick's Wells (IRE)J: Danny McMenamin Pricedup Bet Gordon Richards Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 21f · Good · 4 ran 4th 6/1
31 Oct 26 Wetherby Paddy O'Mahler (IRE)J: Danny McMenamin Bet365 Handicap Steeple Chase (Go North Red Rum Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good · 4 ran 4th 100/30
31 Oct 26 Wetherby Ladronne (FR)J: Oscar Palmer Position Payout At Bet365 Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 19.5f · Good · 8 ran 5th 14/1
31 Oct 26 Wetherby St Michael's Well (IRE)J: Jamie Hamilton 6 Horses Challenge At Bet365 Novices' Hurdle Race (Go North Night Nurse Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 3 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 4th 25/1
31 Oct 26 Wetherby Loopy Mag (FR)J: Danny McMenamin 6 Horses Challenge At Bet365 Novices' Hurdle Race (Go North Night Nurse Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 3 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 10/1
30 Oct 26 Wetherby Prairie Wolf (IRE)J: Danny McMenamin Bet Boost At Bet365 Crossley Handicap Steeple Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 19.5f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 5/1
27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee The Big Breac (IRE)J: Peter Kavanagh Overton Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 12th 14/1
27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee Glen Road (IRE)J: Peter Kavanagh Mount Vines Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 13 ran PU 25/1
27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee Laysoft (IRE)J: Peter Kavanagh Kellyhill Financial Planning Mares' Handicap Hurdle Race (Challenger Mares' Hurdle Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good · 10 ran 3rd 40/1
27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee Aire Spray (IRE)J: Oscar Palmer Spooktacular Family Day Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 23f · Good · 9 ran 1st 15/2
25 Oct 26 Market Rasen Walk In The Valley (IRE)J: Danny McMenamin Summer Plate Ladies Day On Sale Now Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 19f · Good To Soft · 5 ran 1st 7/4F
25 Oct 26 Market Rasen Silver Salver (FR)J: Danny McMenamin Market Rasen Racecourse Caravan & Touring Site Maiden Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 4th 50/1
22 Oct 26 Carlisle Striking Midnight (IRE)J: Callum Bewley Class Of '63: 63 Years On Novices' Hurdle Race (Go North Night Nurse Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 13 ran 9th 28/1
22 Oct 26 Carlisle Farfromaway (IRE)J: Peter Kavanagh Class Of '63: 63 Years On Novices' Hurdle Race (Go North Night Nurse Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 13 ran 5th 13/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 8 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 4 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 3 runs (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 2 runs (won 0) · to 6 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith's strike rate?
Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith has won 76 of 495 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 15.4% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith do best at?
Catterick by strike rate: 10 wins from 44 runners (22.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith?
Peter Kavanagh, with 162 runners since 2022 — 33% of the total. That pairing has won 22 (13.6%).
Is Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith in form?
In the last 14 days: 16 runners, 1 winner, a strike rate of 6.3%. That is below the baseline of 15.4% since 2022.
What is Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith's Fair A/E?
1.13, from 494 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 8 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).