What is Peter Kavanagh's strike rate?

Peter Kavanagh has won 79 of 936 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8.4% (as at 24 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Peter Kavanagh do best at?

Bangor-on-Dee by strike rate: 11 wins from 31 rides (35.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Peter Kavanagh ride most for?

Donald McCain, with 190 rides since 2022 — 20% of the total. That pairing has won 22 (11.6%).

Is Peter Kavanagh in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 4 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Peter Kavanagh's Fair A/E?

0.92, from 935 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Peter Kavanagh

936 rides in the last 5 seasons · 390 individual horses

As at 24 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 2 days ago 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2018→)

from 1 Jan 2022

79–936

Wins / Runs

8.4%

Strike rate

n=936

223 (24%)

Placed

0.92

Fair A/E

n=935 · 0.80 incl. margin

−318.39

£1 level stake

n=936 at SP · −34.0%

£856k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

5.2%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 190 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.92). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 12% (91 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 936 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 24 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Aug–Sep 23.2% when favourite Donald McCain: 11.6% from 190 LTO winners: 12.1% Claiming: 9.6% Rides the favourite in 6% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Bangor-on-Dee (35.5%, n=31), clear of the rider's 8.4% baseline. It is weakest at Musselburgh (0% over 32 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 12.1% (n=91, Fair A/E 0.70), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 1% (n=98, Fair A/E 0.22). The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 4.9% strike, Fair A/E 0.65 and −233.62 to a £1 stake over 370 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Donald McCain supplies 20% of the rides and edges the rider's average (11.6% vs 8.4%, A/E 0.86). The standout partner of the record: See The Sea (IRE) — 5 wins from 12 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Aug–Sep.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.4% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

4.9%−3.5

n=370 · A/E 0.65 · £1 −233.62

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

12.1%+3.7

n=91 · A/E 0.70 · £1 −46.63

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

7.3%−1.1

n=192 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −41.00

When favourite

23.2%

n=56 · A/E 0.78 · £1 −18.68

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

9.6%+1.2

n=582 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −189.39

Big fields · 14+ runners

1%−7.4

n=98 · A/E 0.22 · £1 −92.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−8.4

n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Bangor-on-Dee 35.5% vs 8.4% · n=31

With Ewan Whillans 18.8% vs 8.4% · n=32

At Musselburgh 0% vs 8.4% · n=32

At Doncaster 0% vs 8.4% · n=30

With Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith 13.9% vs 8.4% · n=158

At Cartmel 2.3% vs 8.4% · n=43

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 676 55 8.1% −261.63

Chase 195 21 10.8% −6.09

NH Flat 65 3 4.6% −50.67

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 396 27 6.8% −160.75

Good to Soft 265 24 9.1% −57.25

Soft 211 21 10% −90.22

Heavy 45 4 8.9% −15.17

Good to Firm 15 2 13.3% +3.50

Standard (AW) 4 1 25% +1.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Perth 101 9 8.9% −12.62

Hexham 91 7 7.7% −1.50

Sedgefield 90 6 6.7% −44.50

Newcastle 69 5 7.2% −46.08

Carlisle 59 4 6.8% −35.25

Wetherby 55 6 10.9% −26.25

Kelso 54 4 7.4% −35.00

Cartmel 43 1 2.3% −36.00

Ayr 39 3 7.7% −5.00

Market Rasen 32 3 9.4% +13.50

Musselburgh 32 0 0% −32.00

Bangor-on-Dee 31 11 35.5% +41.90

Uttoxeter 30 2 6.7% −16.00

Doncaster 30 0 0% −30.00

Southwell 28 3 10.7% −10.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 482 41 8.5% −92.71

Class 4 330 26 7.9% −169.17

Class 3 78 10 12.8% −18.26

Class 2 37 2 5.4% −29.25

Class 1 9 0 0% −9.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 70 17 24.3% 0.86 −17.18

2nd–3rd fav 186 32 17.2% 1.00 −24.71

4th–6th fav 323 20 6.2% 0.82 −116.50

7th+ in betting 357 10 2.8% 1.05 −160.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

85.4% completed · 871 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 195 74.4% 6 6 38 0 0

Hurdle 676 88.6% 11 8 58 0 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Dalileo (IRE) 30 3 11 20 Oct 26

Malangen (IRE) 30 1 8 2 Jul 26

Topkapi Star (GB) 19 4 4 4 Feb 26

Heather Honey (GB) 15 4 6 10 Oct 26

Pure Gold (GB) 15 3 5 23 Sep 26

Blended Stealth (GB) 15 1 5 21 Jan 26

Emotional Roller (IRE) 13 1 5 15 Jan 26

Coventry (IRE) 12 1 3 22 Oct 26

Ballydangan (IRE) 12 2 5 2 Oct 26

Eveque (FR) 11 2 4 14 Mar 26

Prince Nino (FR) 10 2 4 15 Mar 25

Rainbow Jet (IRE) 10 0 0 28 Jan 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 390 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 4

Only 4 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

12977711811114117

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardDonald McCain

20% of all rides
11.6% SR · A/E 0.86

TrainerRWSR£1

Donald McCain 190 22 11.6% −81.47

Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith 158 22 13.9% +25.95

Lisa Harrison 109 8 7.3% −32.00

Lizzie Quinlan 86 4 4.7% −56.50

Ewan Whillans 32 6 18.8% +46.38

John Mackie 30 2 6.7% −24.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2018→

Archived wins

£963k

Prize money

2025

Best season · 27 wins

Blakey Boy (IRE) — Remembering Duncan Davidson Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Kelso · Mar 2026 · Class 2

£18,315

Prairie Wolf (IRE) — Sky Bet Extra Places Every Day Handicap Chase Haydock · Jan 2025 · Class 3

£10,562

Since Day One (IRE) — Break From The Field With Vertem Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Newcastle · Feb 2022 · Class 2

£10,178

Notable horses

See The Sea (IRE) Topkapi Star (GB) Heather Honey (GB) Glen Road (IRE) Dalileo (IRE) Pure Gold (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Galileo (IRE) 9.3% · 4–43

Progeny have won 14.5% of 18,192 runs since 2008 (1,776 horses). Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 18.2% from 1,383. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.3% from 889.

Born To Sea (IRE) 7.9% · 3–38

Progeny have won 9.1% of 4,279 runs since 2008 (311 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 12.1% from 966. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.4% from 865. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 5.8% from 724.

Golden Horn (GB) 20% · 7–35

Progeny have won 13.8% of 3,739 runs since 2008 (345 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 9.3% from 162. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.2% from 233.

Getaway (GER) 13.8% · 4–29

Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,921 runs since 2008 (1,028 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.5% from 132.

Sageburg (IRE) 20.7% · 6–29

Progeny have won 10% of 3,475 runs since 2008 (414 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.4% from 389. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 2.4% from 293. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13.2% from 355.

Walk In The Park (IRE) 4% · 1–25

Progeny have won 13.3% of 6,950 runs since 2008 (691 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 24 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,043 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,043 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 12 May 2018 to 22 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

22 Oct 26 Carlisle Coventry (IRE)T: Lisa Harrison Race Home With Genesis Homes Handicap Hurdle Race (Div I)Class 5 · 20f · Good · 13 ran 7th 6/1

22 Oct 26 Carlisle Farfromaway (IRE)T: Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith Class Of '63: 63 Years On Novices' Hurdle Race (Go North Night Nurse Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 13 ran 5th 13/2

20 Oct 26 Hexham Dalileo (IRE)T: Lisa Harrison Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Brindisi Breeze Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 23.5f · Good · 5 ran 2nd 16/1

18 Oct 26 Sedgefield Master Jack (GB)T: Andrew Wilson The Roflow Specialist Ventilation & Dehumidification 'national Hunt' Maiden Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 8 ran 8th 250/1

10 Oct 26 Hexham Clear The Way (IRE)T: Jane Walton Clubs Of Northumberland Open National Hunt Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 5th 40/1

10 Oct 26 Hexham Heather Honey (GB)T: Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith Tackling Insights Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 23.5f · Good · 6 ran 5th 7/1

10 Oct 26 Hexham Get On Son (IRE)T: Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith Hitz Novices' Hurdle Race (Go North Night Nurse Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 6th 9/1

04 Oct 26 Kelso Heart Above (GB)T: Dianne Sayer Percy's Racing Dream Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Cab On Target Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 21f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 3rd 4/1

02 Oct 26 Hexham Ballydangan (IRE)T: Hugh Burns Lee "Bazza" Jenkinson Memorial Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good · 7 ran 7th 12/1

24 Sep 26 Perth Coventry (IRE)T: Lisa Harrison A Place For You Here Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20f · Good · 12 ran 1st 22/1

24 Sep 26 Perth Dalileo (IRE)T: Lisa Harrison Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Brindisi Breeze Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 24f · Good · 9 ran 9th 25/1

24 Sep 26 Perth Ribble River (IRE)T: Lizzie Quinlan House Of Bruar Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 8th 33/1

23 Sep 26 Perth Fortunes Dawn (IRE)T: William Young Jnr Nairn's Oatcakes Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 24f · Good · 12 ran 6th 18/1

23 Sep 26 Perth Hawkseye View (GB)T: Lisa Harrison Thank You To Kinneston Owners Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good · 9 ran 6th 50/1

23 Sep 26 Perth Pure Gold (GB)T: Lisa Harrison Bet With The Dewhurst Ring Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Sea Pigeon Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 6th 7/2F

16 Sep 26 Kelso Heart Above (GB)T: Dianne Sayer Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 21f · Good To Firm · 5 ran 5th 10/1

16 Sep 26 Kelso Ivynator (IRE)T: Jean McGregor RacingTV Proudly Supports Teenage Cancer Trust Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 18f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 7th 300/1

07 Sep 26 Perth Dalileo (IRE)T: Lisa Harrison Auto Services Perth Sales And Rentals Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 24f · Good · 8 ran 8th 14/1

07 Sep 26 Perth Hawkseye View (GB)T: Lisa Harrison www.asp.scot Stellantis Commercial Aftersales Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 20f · Good · 10 ran 8th 66/1

07 Sep 26 Perth Pure Gold (GB)T: Lisa Harrison Auto Services Perth 24-Hour Recovery Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 5/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Peter Kavanagh's strike rate?: Peter Kavanagh has won 79 of 936 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8.4% (as at 24 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Peter Kavanagh do best at?: Bangor-on-Dee by strike rate: 11 wins from 31 rides (35.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Peter Kavanagh ride most for?: Donald McCain, with 190 rides since 2022 — 20% of the total. That pairing has won 22 (11.6%).
Is Peter Kavanagh in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 4 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Peter Kavanagh's Fair A/E?: 0.92, from 935 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.