Chances Are (IRE)
Chances Are (IRE) is 2 from 14. Hasn't won since Aug 2015.
Progeny in our archive
As a dam, Chances Are (IRE) has 5 produce in the archive, 1 winner — most wins Take Me To Church (IRE) (3 wins).
The wins came over 6f–7f.
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Take Me To Church (IRE) | 8 | 3 | 6f–7f | — |
| Dazzerling (IRE) | 23 | 0 | — | — |
| Bamby Splishsplash (IRE) | 5 | 0 | — | — |
| Picture This (IRE) | 2 | 0 | — | — |
| Royal Optimist (IRE) | 1 | 0 | — | — |
- 2–14Wins / Runs
- 14.3%Strike rate
- 4 (28.6%)Placed
- −3.25£1 level staken=14 at SP
- 1.28Fair A/E n=13 · 1.02 incl. margin
- 75Highest OR
- 36dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
No KTB Speed figures for this horse. The engine scores GB and Irish racing from Oct 2016; runs elsewhere, or earlier, have no figure.
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 0 figures from 0 runs · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style is derived from in-running commentary, which our data provider does not supply for this horse's races.
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 9.1% of 14,925 runs since Jan 2008 (930 horses).
Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 92 | 14 | 15.2% | +6.1 | — |
| Good to Firm | 2,477 | 256 | 10.3% | +1.2 | 1 from 5 |
| Good | 3,167 | 264 | 8.3% | −0.8 | 0 from 4 |
| Good to Soft | 1,340 | 109 | 8.1% | −1 | 1 from 3 |
| Soft | 1,716 | 136 | 7.9% | −1.2 | — |
| Heavy | 465 | 50 | 10.8% | +1.7 | — |
| Standard (AW) | 5,668 | 534 | 9.4% | +0.3 | 0 from 2 |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 4,433 | 507 | 11.4% | +2.3 | 1 from 5 |
| 6f – 7f | 7,622 | 643 | 8.4% | −0.7 | 0 from 7 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 2,041 | 158 | 7.7% | −1.4 | 1 from 2 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 580 | 44 | 7.6% | −1.5 | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 170 | 9 | 5.3% | −3.8 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 66 | 2 | 3% | −6.1 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 12 | 0 | 0% | −9.1 | — |
| Over 3m | 1 | 0 | 0% | −9.1 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 20 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
7 siblings in the archive, 6 winners — best of them Ice Age (IRE) (8 wins).
The wins came over 5f–1m2f; the highest grade won is Group 2 (Baron's Pit (GB)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ice Age (IRE) | 65 | 8 | 6f–7f | Class 2 |
| Set Fire (IRE) | 17 | 2 | 6f–7f | — |
| Candela Bay (IRE) | 7 | 2 | 5f–6f | Class 5 |
| Baron's Pit (GB) | 14 | 1 | 6f | Group 2 |
| Going Grey (IRE) | 26 | 1 | 1m2f | Class 5 |
| Burton Ash (GB) | 21 | 1 | 1m | Class 5 |
| This Charming Man (IRE) | 8 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Firm | 5 | 1 | 20% | +3.50 |
| Good | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Good to Soft | 3 | 1 | 33% | −0.75 |
| Standard (AW) | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 5 | 8 | 1 | 13% | +0.50 |
| Class 4 | 4 | 1 | 25% | −1.75 |
| Class 6 | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle | 4 | 1 | 25% | +4.50 |
| Wolverhampton (AW) | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Beverley | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Newcastle | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Musselburgh | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Redcar | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Hamilton | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Thirsk | 1 | 1 | 100% | +1.25 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6f – 7f | 7 | 0 | 0% | −7.00 |
| Under 6f | 5 | 1 | 20% | −2.75 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 2 | 1 | 50% | +6.50 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Makin | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Tom Eaves | 3 | 1 | 33% | −0.75 |
| Joe Fanning | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| P J McDonald | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Fergal Lynch | 1 | 1 | 100% | +7.50 |
| Louis Steward | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Andrew Mullen | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Tony Hamilton | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Graham Lee | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 10 | 1 | 10% | −1.50 |
| 2014 | 4 | 1 | 25% | −1.75 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct 15+72d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Ladbrokes Handicap | 5/11 | 3½ | 9-4 | 68 | 70A | P J McDonald | 11/1 |
| 19 Aug 15+9d | Carlisle | ApolloBet Home Of Cashback Specials Handicap | 1/9 | 8-8 | 62 | 86A | Fergal Lynch | 15/2 | |
| 10 Aug 15+10d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Renault Clio Apprentice Handicap | 3/8 | ½ | 9-9 | 62 | 79A | Louis Steward | 12/1 |
| 31 Jul 15+11d | Musselburgh | Wilkinson And Associates Scotland Handicap | 9/11 | 1¼ | 8-11 | 65 | 53A | Andrew Mullen | 16/1 |
| 20 Jul 15+26d | Beverley | Skybet Supporting The Yorkshire Racing Summer Festival Handicap | 7/14 | nse | 9-7 | 65 | 67A | Joe Fanning | 10/1 |
| 24 Jun 15+9d | Carlisle | Ebf Stallions Fillies' Handicap | 3/5 | hd | 8-4 | 65 | 69B | Joe Fanning | 16/1 |
| 15 Jun 15+20d | Carlisle | EBF Stallions Fillies' Handicap | 6/10 | ¾ | 8-8 | 65 | 58A | Tony Hamilton | 20/1 |
| 26 May 15+7d | Redcar | Racing UK Profits Returned To Racing Handicap | 5/8 | 1 | 9-6 | 68 | 67A | Graham Lee | 13/2 |
| 19 May 15+21d | Newcastle | Newcastle Flooring Fillies' Handicap | 5/9 | ½ | 9-2 | 68 | 62A | Phillip Makin | 9/2F |
| 28 Apr 15+219d | Newcastle | Northeast Oyster Festival On Tour Newcastle 2015 Handicap | 6/8 | 1½ | 9-2 | 70 | 66A | Phillip Makin | 12/1 |
| 21 Sep 14+28d | Hamilton | Bet totejackpot Nursery | 6/6 | 3¼ | 9-5 | 73 | 56B | Phillip Makin | 9/2 |
| 24 Aug 14+22d | Beverley | R & R Country Nursery Handicap (Bobis Race) | 8/8 | 1 | 9-0 | 75 | 51A | Tom Eaves | 5/2F |
| 02 Aug 14+11d | Thirsk | EBF Stallions Maiden Stakes | 1/11 | 9-0 | — | 93A | Tom Eaves | 5/4F | |
| 22 Jul 14 | Carlisle | Jessie J Here This Sunday Maiden Stakes | 2/8 | 1½ | 9-0 | — | 80A | Tom Eaves | 7/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Chances Are (IRE) won?
- Chances Are (IRE) won 2 of 14 archived starts between 2014 and 2015, a strike rate of 14.3%. Placed 4 times in total (28.6% of starts).
- Who trained Chances Are (IRE)?
- Chances Are (IRE) was trained by Keith Dalgleish on the most recent run on record, at Wolverhampton (AW) on 30 October 2015.
- Who is Chances Are (IRE)'s sire?
- Chances Are (IRE) is by Dandy Man (IRE) out of Incendio (GB), whose sire is Siberian Express.
- What going does Chances Are (IRE) prefer?
- Chances Are (IRE) has the best record on good to soft going: 1 win from 3 starts (33.3%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Chances Are (IRE)'s official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 68, from the run on 30 October 2015. The highest on record is 75.
- What is Chances Are (IRE)'s sire's record?
- Dandy Man (IRE)'s progeny in our archive have won 9.1% of 14,925 runs since Jan 2008 (930 horses), Flat and jumps together. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.
- Who are Chances Are (IRE)'s siblings?
- Out of Incendio (GB), Chances Are (IRE) has 7 other produce in our archive, 6 of them winners. Most wins: Ice Age (IRE) (8). Highest grade won: Group 2 (Baron's Pit (GB)). The wins came over 5f–1m2f. As at Oct 2026.
- Has Chances Are (IRE) produced winners?
- As a dam, Chances Are (IRE) has 5 produce in our archive, 1 of them a winner. Most wins: Take Me To Church (IRE) (3). The wins came over 6f–7f. As at Oct 2026.