What is P. J. McDonald's strike rate?

P. J. McDonald has won 319 of 2,525 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12.6% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does P. J. McDonald do best at?

Beverley by strike rate: 21 wins from 104 rides (20.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does P. J. McDonald ride most for?

Andrew Balding, with 356 rides since 2022 — 14% of the total. That pairing has won 69 (19.4%).

Is P. J. McDonald in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 9 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is P. J. McDonald's Fair A/E?

1.02, from 2,509 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

P. J. McDonald

2,525 rides in the last 5 seasons · 1,544 individual horses

As at 13 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 6 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

319–2,525

Wins / Runs

12.6%

Strike rate

n=2,525

843 (33%)

Placed

1.02

Fair A/E

n=2,509 · 0.88 incl. margin

−415.13

£1 level stake

n=2,525 at SP · −16.4%

£7.07m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

12%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 510 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 13% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.02). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 17% (290 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,525 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 13 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires May–Jun 32.9% when favourite Andrew Balding: 19.4% from 356 LTO winners: 16.6% Rides the favourite in 11% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Beverley (20.2%, n=104), Hamilton (20%, n=60) and Carlisle (19.2%, n=78) — all clear of the rider's 12.6% baseline. It is weakest at Chelmsford City (AW) (2.3% over 44 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 16.6% (n=290, Fair A/E 0.98), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 8% (n=324, Fair A/E 0.73). In Group and Graded company the record are the standout value angle: 12.2% strikes only just below baseline, but Fair A/E 1.35 and +46.53 to a £1 stake over 139 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Andrew Balding supplies 14% of the rides and beats the rider's average (19.4% vs 12.6%, A/E 1.16) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. 49 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes at Ascot (Jul 2022, £708,875). The standout partner of the record: Dubai Dynamo (GB) — 9 wins from 70 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires May–Jun.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.6% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

12.2%−0.4

n=1,472 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −315.37

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

16.6%+4.0

n=290 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −90.73

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

8%−4.6

n=324 · A/E 0.73 · £1 −165.85

When favourite

32.9%

n=286 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −37.98

Big fields · 14+ runners

8%−4.6

n=312 · A/E 1.29 · £1 −66.45

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

12.2%−0.4

n=139 · A/E 1.35 · £1 +46.53

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Andrew Balding 19.4% vs 12.6% · n=356

At Chelmsford City (AW) 2.3% vs 12.6% · n=44

At Beverley 20.2% vs 12.6% · n=104

With Ed Dunlop 20.8% vs 12.6% · n=48

At Hamilton 20% vs 12.6% · n=60

At Carlisle 19.2% vs 12.6% · n=78

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 1,039 132 12.7% −167.24

Good 555 60 10.8% −163.63

Good to Firm 452 67 14.8% +16.64

Good to Soft 234 33 14.1% −29.74

Soft 191 20 10.5% −60.49

Heavy 54 7 13% −10.67

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newcastle (AW) 402 61 15.2% −18.12

Southwell (AW) 305 35 11.5% −52.96

Wolverhampton (AW) 204 26 12.7% −17.69

York 158 22 13.9% +16.66

Doncaster 141 12 8.5% −70.50

Haydock 118 14 11.9% −19.12

Beverley 104 21 20.2% −8.84

Pontefract 100 8 8% −54.00

Redcar 94 17 18.1% −11.94

Thirsk 91 10 11% −37.31

Carlisle 78 15 19.2% +18.45

Ayr 73 7 9.6% −15.55

Kempton (AW) 71 7 9.9% −36.85

Catterick 67 6 9% +3.32

Nottingham 63 9 14.3% +31.38

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 765 119 15.6% −79.82

Class 4 582 62 10.7% −232.12

Class 6 547 59 10.8% −68.23

Class 2 287 37 12.9% −50.16

Class 3 204 25 12.3% −30.33

Class 1 139 17 12.2% +46.53

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 325 108 33.2% 1.07 −19.39

2nd–3rd fav 692 120 17.3% 1.03 −103.24

4th–6th fav 813 69 8.5% 0.99 −80.50

7th+ in betting 695 22 3.2% 0.89 −212.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Percy Willis (GB) 25 4 11 12 Dec 25

Distinction (IRE) 15 3 5 21 Jul 26

Air Force One (IRE) 14 3 7 3 Oct 26

Project Geofin (GB) 13 3 4 30 Oct 26

Trilby (GB) 11 4 7 26 Sep 26

Phantom Flight (GB) 11 3 6 12 Aug 23

Monsieur Bondy (GB) 10 2 3 29 Oct 26

Reginald Charles (GB) 10 1 5 16 Oct 26

Ebony Maw (GB) 10 2 4 11 Aug 26

Orbital Chime (GB) 10 1 2 28 Apr 25

Odd Socks Havana (GB) 10 2 7 4 Jan 24

Harlem Nights (IRE) 10 2 5 25 Aug 23

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 1,544 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 9

Only 9 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

1322119141612141113146

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardAndrew Balding

14% of all rides
19.4% SR · A/E 1.16

TrainerRWSR£1

Andrew Balding 356 69 19.4% −17.64

James Horton 192 26 13.5% −31.42

Edward Bethell 141 20 14.2% −41.92

Geoff Oldroyd 108 18 16.7% +18.10

Jedd O'Keeffe 74 8 10.8% −6.25

John Mackie 56 7 12.5% +2.38

Ewan Whillans 54 4 7.4% +18.50

Rebecca Menzies 49 4 8.2% −20.42

Ed Dunlop 48 10 20.8% +46.00

James Tate 47 7 14.9% −8.33

William Muir & Chris Grassick 40 6 15% +14.00

Marco Botti 38 2 5.3% −13.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

1,429

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£19.5m

Prize money

2019

Best season · 135 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Pyledriver (GB) — King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) Ascot · Jul 2022 · Group 1

£708,875

Laurens (FR) — Prix de Diane Longines (3yo Fillies) (Turf) Chantilly (FR) · Jun 2018 · Group 1

£505,664

Laurens (FR) — bet365 Fillies' Mile (Group 1) Newmarket · Oct 2017 · Group 1

£321,829

Notable horses

Dubai Dynamo (GB) Landing Night (IRE) Raccoon (IRE) Laurens (FR) Imperial Djay (IRE) True Pleasure (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dark Angel (IRE) 7.3% · 7–96

Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,957 runs since 2011 (1,596 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.

Showcasing (GB) 12.5% · 9–72

Progeny have won 10.2% of 11,665 runs since 2014 (1,000 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 109.

Kodiac (GB) 11.4% · 8–70

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,604 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.

Mehmas (IRE) 23.8% · 15–63

Progeny have won 11.5% of 8,243 runs since 2020 (755 horses).

Kingman (GB) 12.7% · 7–55

Progeny have won 14.5% of 7,533 runs since 2018 (779 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 11% from 970. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 8.9% from 123.

Lope De Vega (IRE) 5.6% · 3–54

Progeny have won 13.8% of 12,244 runs since 2014 (1,110 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.4% from 962.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 13 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 12,627 · newest first

The latest 50 of 12,627 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 6 February 2005 to 7 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Bondy Boy (GB)T: Geoff Oldroyd ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back EBF "Confined" Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D With No More Than Three Runs) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 2nd 7/4F

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Abrouq (GB)T: Andrew Balding AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 7th 25/1

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Asian Journey (IRE)T: Sam England All-Weather Championship Is Back Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 7th 4/1

04 Nov 26 Nottingham Ravishing Beauty (GB)T: Jedd O'Keeffe racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8.5f · Soft · 15 ran 11th 18/1

04 Nov 26 Nottingham Zowal (FR)T: John & Sean Quinn Watch Racing TV Now Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8.5f · Soft · 14 ran 9th 18/1

04 Nov 26 Nottingham Lady Hornblower (GB)T: Jedd O'Keeffe Conference And Events At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap Stakes (Div I) (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 10f · Soft · 9 ran 2nd 18/1

04 Nov 26 Nottingham Marquetry (IRE)T: Andrew Balding Experience Hospitality At Nottingham Racecourse Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 14f · Soft · 10 ran 6th 14/1

04 Nov 26 Nottingham Ma Belle Artiste (IRE)T: Robert Bevis Racedays For £9 At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 16f · Soft · 13 ran 12th 100/1

31 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Joud (GB)T: Edward Bethell ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 3rd 11/1

30 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Bomb Squad (IRE)T: John Mackie Aw Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 7th 22/1

30 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Project Geofin (GB)T: Geoff Oldroyd Awc Season 14 Has Begun Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 6/1

30 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Forager (GB)T: Simon Pearce Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap StakesClass 3 · 5f · Standard · 12 ran 6th 40/1

30 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Pequenita (GB)T: Andrew Balding Awc Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 5 ran 5th 13/8F

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Kashooda (GB)T: Andrew Balding Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 11f · Standard · 7 ran 4th 5/1

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Asuka (GB)T: George Boughey AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap StakesClass 3 · 7f · Standard · 14 ran 1st 7/2

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Wintour (IRE)T: Clive Cox ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 12th 12/1

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Monsieur Bondy (GB)T: Geoff Oldroyd All-Weather Championship Is Back Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 13 ran 4th 9/2

27 Oct 26 Catterick Sweet Desire (GB)T: Steph Hollinshead Celebrating Helen Mackinnon's LX Years Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 6f · Soft · 10 ran 10th 28/1

27 Oct 26 Catterick Stoneywell (GB)T: Steph Hollinshead Celebrating Helen MacKinnon's LX Years Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 6f · Soft · 10 ran 6th 12/1

26 Oct 26 Redcar Rascal Recknell (FR)T: Michael Appleby Bowel Cancer Screening Programme Saves Lives Selling Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Heavy · 12 ran 7th 5/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 7 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 3 runs (won 0, 1 did not run) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 7 runs (won 2) · fastest on KTB Speed in 2 runs (won 0) · to 30 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is P. J. McDonald's strike rate?: P. J. McDonald has won 319 of 2,525 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12.6% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does P. J. McDonald do best at?: Beverley by strike rate: 21 wins from 104 rides (20.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does P. J. McDonald ride most for?: Andrew Balding, with 356 rides since 2022 — 14% of the total. That pairing has won 69 (19.4%).
Is P. J. McDonald in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 9 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is P. J. McDonald's Fair A/E?: 1.02, from 2,509 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.