What is Fergal Lynch's strike rate?

Fergal Lynch has won 163 of 1,699 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 9.6% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Fergal Lynch do best at?

Hamilton by strike rate: 15 wins from 77 rides (19.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Fergal Lynch ride most for?

David Marnane, with 315 rides since 2008 — 19% of the total. That pairing has won 26 (8.3%).

What is Fergal Lynch's Fair A/E?

1.02, from 1,686 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Fergal Lynch

1,699 rides in the lifetime window · 834 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Oct 2015 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

163–1,699

Wins / Runs

9.6%

Strike rate

n=1,699

510 (30%)

Placed

1.02

Fair A/E

n=1,686 · 0.85 incl. margin

−414.24

£1 level stake

n=1,696 at SP · −24.4%

£1.81m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

13.1%

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 210 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 10% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.02). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 16% (146 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,699 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Jun–Jul 25.5% when favourite David Marnane: 8.3% from 315 LTO winners: 16.4% Rode the favourite in 6% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Hamilton (19.5%, n=77) and Musselburgh (16%, n=81) — all clear of the rider's 9.6% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 16.4% (n=146, Fair A/E 1.28), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 4.3% (n=94, Fair A/E 0.60). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 5.6% strike, Fair A/E 0.67 and −130.00 to a £1 stake over 250 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. David Marnane supplied 19% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (8.3%, A/E 0.86). The rider also read well in Class 6 (16.1%, n=211). 5 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Appletiser Handicap at Ascot (Sep 2015, £40,445). The standout partner of the record was Mr Wolf (GB) — 5 wins from 18 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fired Jun–Jul.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.6% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

8.8%−0.8

n=814 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −218.96

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

16.4%+6.8

n=146 · A/E 1.28 · £1 +4.87

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

5.6%−4.0

n=250 · A/E 0.67 · £1 −130.00

When favourite

25.5%

n=106 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −18.12

Big fields · 14+ runners

6.6%−3.0

n=487 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −153.58

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

4.3%−5.3

n=94 · A/E 0.60 · £1 −55.75

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Hamilton 19.5% vs 9.6% · n=77

With horses switching code 0% vs 9.6% · n=57

In Class 6 16.1% vs 9.6% · n=211

On last-time-out winners 16.4% vs 9.6% · n=146

With Edward Lynam 18.4% vs 9.6% · n=38

At Musselburgh 16% vs 9.6% · n=81

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 446 40 9% −192.39

Good 415 50 12% +4.70

Good to Firm 334 35 10.5% −63.57

Soft 222 16 7.2% −92.31

Good to Soft 188 18 9.6% −14.67

Heavy 88 4 4.5% −50.00

Firm 6 0 0% −6.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Dundalk 322 26 8.1% −143.01

Ayr 123 14 11.4% −3.62

Curragh 102 5 4.9% −51.00

Musselburgh 81 13 16% +25.50

Hamilton 77 15 19.5% +34.67

Haydock 58 8 13.8% +34.00

Leopardstown 53 3 5.7% −34.75

Doncaster 53 3 5.7% −29.50

Wolverhampton (AW) 49 4 8.2% −26.00

Catterick 46 7 15.2% −0.17

Redcar 44 3 6.8% −23.50

Naas 43 4 9.3% −7.00

Southwell (AW) 42 7 16.7% −7.13

Newcastle 41 7 17.1% +23.33

Carlisle 35 5 14.3% +11.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 306 35 11.4% −4.34

Class 6 211 34 16.1% +20.42

Class 4 182 19 10.4% −37.00

Class 1 94 4 4.3% −55.75

Class 3 71 7 9.9% +10.50

Class 2 68 7 10.3% −24.00

Class 7 6 0 0% −6.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 136 35 25.7% 1.03 −12.75

2nd–3rd fav 363 63 17.4% 1.14 −1.99

4th–6th fav 569 43 7.6% 0.95 −123.50

7th+ in betting 628 20 3.2% 0.87 −276.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

He's Got Rhythm (IRE) 22 1 8 27 Nov 13

Almadaa (GB) 21 4 12 25 Oct 13

Cool Athlete (IRE) 16 4 5 6 Jun 14

Mistiroc (GB) 14 3 4 26 Sep 15

Maundy Money (GB) 14 0 3 4 May 14

Sassaway (IRE) 13 3 7 16 Jan 15

Sword Of Light (IRE) 13 1 4 16 Sep 13

Eusepio (IRE) 11 1 3 12 Jun 13

Monel (GB) 10 0 2 17 Sep 15

Elleval (IRE) 10 1 5 29 Jun 14

Maal (IRE) 10 0 1 22 Nov 13

Jack Dexter (GB) 9 0 2 17 Oct 15

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 834 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

14101016611121110543

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardDavid Marnane

19% of all rides
8.3% SR · A/E 0.86

TrainerRWSR£1

David Marnane 315 26 8.3% −123.43

Jim Goldie 282 30 10.6% +30.50

Kevin Ryan 124 16 12.9% −18.07

M D O'Callaghan 67 7 10.4% −27.64

D W Barker 44 4 9.1% −24.00

Edward Lynam 38 7 18.4% +9.50

Bryan Smart 38 5 13.2% −11.38

Ian McInnes 31 3 9.7% −8.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

262

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£2.54m

Prize money

2005

Best season · 77 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Wonder Laish (GB) — Appletiser Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Ascot · Sep 2015 · Class 2

£40,445

Ursa Major (IRE) — Gain Horse Feeds Irish St Leger Trial Stakes (group 3) Curragh · Aug 2012 · Group 3

£37,375

Gathering Power (IRE) — Woodlands 100 Club Handicap Naas · May 2013

£30,000

Notable horses

Mr Wolf (GB) Almadaa (GB) Cool Athlete (IRE) Sir Bond (IRE) Regent's Secret (USA) Mistiroc (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kodiac (GB) 10% · 7–70

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,598 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.

Exceed and Excel (AUS) 12.8% · 5–39

Progeny have won 11.9% of 16,036 runs since 2008 (1,161 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 20.7% from 198. Weakest on Soft going: 7.9% from 1,194.

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 2.6% · 1–38

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,863 runs since 2008 (1,574 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 844.

Kyllachy (GB) 18.2% · 6–33

Progeny have won 9.9% of 13,847 runs since 2008 (800 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 468.

Red Clubs (IRE) 9.7% · 3–31

Progeny have won 10.3% of 3,131 runs since 2011 (143 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 5.5% from 127.

Choisir (AUS) 22.2% · 6–27

Progeny have won 10.7% of 5,779 runs since 2008 (392 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,668 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,668 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 12 January 2005 to 17 October 2015.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

17 Oct 15 Ascot Jack Dexter (GB)T: Jim Goldie Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1)Class 1 · 6f · Good To Soft · 20 ran 16th 33/1

16 Oct 15 Haydock Braes Of Lochalsh (GB)T: Jim Goldie ApolloBet Worldwide Lotteries HandicapClass 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 14th 25/1

16 Oct 15 Haydock Master Mirasol (IRE)T: Kevin Ryan ApolloBet Online Games And Casino Nursery (Div 2)Class 5 · 7f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 2nd 7/1

16 Oct 15 Haydock Mr Potter (GB)T: Richard Guest ApolloBet Online Games And Casino Nursery (Div 1)Class 5 · 7f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 6th 4/1

16 Oct 15 Haydock High Ranking (GB)T: David Brown ApolloBet Best Odds Guaranteed EBF Maiden StakesClass 5 · 8f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 11th 80/1

16 Oct 15 Haydock Tiger Jim (GB)T: Jim Goldie Griffiths And Armour HandicapClass 3 · 6f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 10th 9/2F

16 Oct 15 Haydock Futoon (IRE)T: Kevin Ryan ApolloBet New Customers Promotions Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Plus 10)Class 5 · 6f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 3rd 7/4F

14 Oct 15 Nottingham Fredricka (GB)T: Ivan Furtado trustatrader.com Find Tradespeople You Can Trust HandicapClass 4 · 5f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 4th 7/1

14 Oct 15 Nottingham St Georges Cross (GB)T: David Brown trustatrader.com The UK's Trusted Online Directory NurseryClass 5 · 8.5f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 11th 16/1

13 Oct 15 Musselburgh Rioja Day (IRE)T: Jim Goldie Download Your Racing UK's App Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 7f · Good · 11 ran 9th 8/1

13 Oct 15 Musselburgh Call Me Crockett (IRE)T: Iain Jardine Download Your Racing UK's App Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 7f · Good · 11 ran 6th 4/1J

13 Oct 15 Musselburgh Ruby's Day (GB)T: David Brown New Racing UK's iPad App HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Good · 12 ran 12th 13/2

13 Oct 15 Musselburgh Aleksandar (GB)T: Jim Goldie Racing UK Anywhere HandicapClass 5 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 4th 9/1

13 Oct 15 Musselburgh Silver Duke (IRE)T: Jim Goldie Racing UK 1 Price 3 Devices Median Auction Maiden StakesClass 6 · 12f · Good · 3 ran 3rd 9/1

13 Oct 15 Musselburgh Titus Bolt (IRE)T: Jim Goldie Racing UK Profits Returned To Racing HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Good · 10 ran 1st 11/2

13 Oct 15 Musselburgh Midnight Robbery (GB)T: Bryan Smart ebfstallions.com Maiden StakesClass 5 · 5f · Good · 6 ran 4th 40/1

13 Oct 15 Musselburgh Luath (GB)T: David Brown British Stallions Studs EBF Maiden StakesClass 5 · 8f · Good · 9 ran 6th 20/1

10 Oct 15 York Dance King (GB)T: Tim Easterby Coldstream Guards Association Cup (Handicap)Class 4 · 10.5f · Good To Soft · 20 ran 2nd 10/1

10 Oct 15 York Lexington Abbey (GB)T: Kevin Ryan Coral Sprint Trophy (Handicap)Class 2 · 6f · Good To Soft · 19 ran 10th 20/1

10 Oct 15 York King Robert (GB)T: Bryan Smart coral.co.uk Rockingham Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 6f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 4th 13/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Fergal Lynch's strike rate?: Fergal Lynch has won 163 of 1,699 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 9.6% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Fergal Lynch do best at?: Hamilton by strike rate: 15 wins from 77 rides (19.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Fergal Lynch ride most for?: David Marnane, with 315 rides since 2008 — 19% of the total. That pairing has won 26 (8.3%).
What is Fergal Lynch's Fair A/E?: 1.02, from 1,686 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.