Lucky Mistake (IRE)
Lucky Mistake (IRE) is 3 from 19. Hasn't won since Oct 2017. Each win came on a first visit to the course.
- 3–19Wins / Runs
- 15.8%Strike rate
- 10 (52.6%)Placed
- +3.00£1 level staken=19 at SP
- 0.87Fair A/E n=19 · 0.72 incl. margin
- 83Highest OR
- 40dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
Best recent Speed 96
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 28 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy | 4 | 88C | 80 | — |
| Soft | 4 | 103C | 89 | — |
| Good to Firm | 2 | 64A | 62.5 | — |
| Good to Soft | 1 | — | — | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 28 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m – 1m1f | 7 | 105C | 80 | — |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 2 | 82C | 81 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 2 | 96A | 78.5 | — |
Of 12 runs looked at, 1 has no figure: did not complete (1).
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 11 figures from 12 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style is derived from in-running commentary, which our data provider does not supply for this horse's races.
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 9.4% of 7,594 runs since Jan 2008 (492 horses).
Strongest on heavy going: 12.7% from 558. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.8% from 109.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 24 | 3 | 12.5% | +3.1 | — |
| Good to Firm | 944 | 73 | 7.7% | −1.7 | 0 from 5 |
| Good | 1,657 | 155 | 9.4% | 0 | 0 from 1 |
| Good to Soft | 936 | 90 | 9.6% | +0.2 | 0 from 1 |
| Soft | 1,391 | 165 | 11.9% | +2.5 | 2 from 5 |
| Heavy | 558 | 71 | 12.7% | +3.3 | 1 from 5 |
| Standard (AW) | 2,083 | 155 | 7.4% | −2 | 0 from 2 |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 684 | 67 | 9.8% | +0.4 | 0 from 2 |
| 6f – 7f | 2,773 | 232 | 8.4% | −1 | 1 from 7 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 1,691 | 153 | 9% | −0.4 | 2 from 8 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 1,217 | 137 | 11.3% | +1.9 | 0 from 2 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 779 | 76 | 9.8% | +0.4 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 328 | 32 | 9.8% | +0.4 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 109 | 14 | 12.8% | +3.4 | — |
| Over 3m | 13 | 1 | 7.7% | −1.7 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 27 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
4 siblings in the archive, 2 winners — best of them Don't Panic (IRE) (6 wins).
The wins came over 6f–2m½f; the highest grade won is Class 2 (Don't Panic (IRE)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Don't Panic (IRE) | 40 | 6 | 7f–2m½f | Class 2 |
| Sir George (IRE) | 53 | 6 | 6f–1m½f | Class 3 |
| Stoney Plain (IRE) | 2 | 0 | — | — |
| Mayor of Seaham (IRE) | 3 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Firm | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| Heavy | 5 | 1 | 20% | +6.00 |
| Soft | 5 | 2 | 40% | +6.00 |
| Standard (AW) | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Good to Soft | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Good | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 5 | 4 | 1 | 25% | +0.50 |
| Class 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Class 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naas | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Chantilly (FR) | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Hamilton | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Clonmel | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Limerick | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Leopardstown | 1 | 1 | 100% | +5.50 |
| Navan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Galway | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Gowran Park | 1 | 1 | 100% | +10.00 |
| Pontefract | 1 | 1 | 100% | +3.50 |
| Newmarket | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Thirsk | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Musselburgh | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Newcastle (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Newbury | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| York | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m – 1m1f | 8 | 2 | 25% | +9.50 |
| 6f – 7f | 7 | 1 | 14% | −2.50 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Under 6f | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Sheehy | 8 | 2 | 25% | +9.50 |
| Cristian Demuro | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Tony Hamilton | 2 | 1 | 50% | +2.50 |
| Shane Crosse | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Shane Foley | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Paddy Mathers | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jack Garritty | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| David Nolan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Connor Beasley | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jim Crowley | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | 18 | 3 | 17% | +4.00 |
| Cheekpieces | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| 2017 | 6 | 2 | 33% | +11.50 |
| 2016 | 8 | 1 | 13% | −3.50 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
Quick answers
- How many races has Lucky Mistake won?
- Lucky Mistake (IRE) won 3 of 19 archived starts between 2016 and 2018, a strike rate of 15.8%. Placed 10 times in total (52.6% of starts).
- Who trained Lucky Mistake?
- Lucky Mistake (IRE) was trained by Adrian Paul Keatley on the most recent run on record, at Hamilton on 3 July 2018.
- Who is Lucky Mistake's sire?
- Lucky Mistake (IRE) is by Fast Company (IRE) out of Torrmana (IRE), whose sire is Ela-Mana-Mou.
- What going does Lucky Mistake prefer?
- Lucky Mistake (IRE) has the best record on soft going: 2 wins from 5 starts (40%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Lucky Mistake's official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 81, from the run on 3 July 2018. The highest on record is 83.
- What is Lucky Mistake's sire's record?
- Fast Company (IRE)'s progeny in our archive have won 9.4% of 7,594 runs since Jan 2008 (492 horses), Flat and jumps together. Strongest on heavy going: 12.7% from 558. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.8% from 109.
- Who are Lucky Mistake's siblings?
- Out of Torrmana (IRE), Lucky Mistake (IRE) has 4 other produce in our archive, 2 of them winners. Most wins: Don't Panic (IRE) (6). Highest grade won: Class 2 (Don't Panic (IRE)). The wins came over 6f–2m½f. As at Oct 2026.