What is David Nolan's strike rate?

David Nolan has won 222 of 2,098 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 10.6% (as at 30 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does David Nolan do best at?

Thirsk by strike rate: 15 wins from 95 rides (15.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does David Nolan ride most for?

David O'Meara, with 537 rides since 2022 — 26% of the total. That pairing has won 64 (11.9%).

Is David Nolan in form?

In the last 14 days: 17 rides, 0 winners, a strike rate of 0%. That is below the baseline of 10.6% since 2022.

What is David Nolan's Fair A/E?

0.97, from 2,089 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

David Nolan

2,098 rides in the last 5 seasons · 874 individual horses

As at 30 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride yesterday 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

222–2,098

Wins / Runs

10.6%

Strike rate

n=2,098

660 (32%)

Placed

0.97

Fair A/E

n=2,089 · 0.83 incl. margin

−567.14

£1 level stake

n=2,098 at SP · −27.0%

£2.48m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 420 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 11% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.97). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 13% (191 rides). The rider is quiet just now — 0 winners in the last fortnight, below their own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 2,098 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 30 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires May–Jun 25.8% when favourite David O'Meara: 11.9% from 537 LTO winners: 12.6% Rides the favourite in 9% of races

The read

It is weakest at York (2.7% over 73 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 4.3% (n=209, Fair A/E 0.69). The market has consistently overbet rides on last-time-out winners: 12.6% strike, Fair A/E 0.76 and −74.47 to a £1 stake over 191 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Right now the rider is in a quiet spell: 0 from 17 rides in the last 14 days (0%, 10.6pts below the 10.6% baseline). David O'Meara supplies 26% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (11.9%, A/E 1.01) — the market has that partnership priced right. The rider also reads well off a 0-7-day break (16.1%, n=112). The record reads poorly on Heavy going — 2% over 50 rides, 8.6pts below the baseline. 5 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Unibet All-weather Sprint Championships Conditions Stakes at Lingfield (AW) (Mar 2016, £93,375). The standout partner of the record: Molinari (IRE) — 6 wins from 25 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires May–Jun.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.6% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

9.2%−1.4

n=825 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −369.05

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

12.6%+2.0

n=191 · A/E 0.76 · £1 −74.47

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

8.8%−1.8

n=260 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −86.42

When favourite

25.8%

n=198 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −27.60

Big fields · 14+ runners

4.3%−6.3

n=209 · A/E 0.69 · £1 −140.75

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

9.5%−1.1

n=21 · A/E 1.20 · £1 −4.09

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At York 2.7% vs 10.6% · n=73

On Heavy going 2% vs 10.6% · n=50

With horses switching code 2.6% vs 10.6% · n=39

With Kevin Frost 2.9% vs 10.6% · n=35

Off a 0-7-day break 16.1% vs 10.6% · n=112

With Michael Dods 3.2% vs 10.6% · n=31

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 706 75 10.6% −193.85

Good 577 59 10.2% −133.65

Good to Firm 410 48 11.7% −120.14

Soft 190 27 14.2% +27.38

Good to Soft 165 12 7.3% −106.38

Heavy 50 1 2% −40.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newcastle (AW) 446 50 11.2% −127.68

Southwell (AW) 161 14 8.7% −38.17

Redcar 140 16 11.4% −25.55

Doncaster 138 12 8.7% −81.63

Ayr 117 18 15.4% −2.43

Ripon 117 17 14.5% +29.42

Hamilton 108 10 9.3% −36.00

Beverley 98 10 10.2% −46.52

Catterick 97 10 10.3% −46.62

Pontefract 96 15 15.6% +22.50

Thirsk 95 15 15.8% +21.21

Wolverhampton (AW) 75 10 13.3% −9.00

York 73 2 2.7% −62.75

Musselburgh 71 4 5.6% −57.00

Carlisle 67 4 6% −23.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 728 86 11.8% −45.96

Class 6 634 69 10.9% −229.53

Class 4 507 50 9.9% −194.56

Class 3 119 9 7.6% −45.25

Class 2 89 6 6.7% −47.75

Class 1 21 2 9.5% −4.09

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 236 59 25% 0.96 −29.60

2nd–3rd fav 526 87 16.5% 1.01 −74.54

4th–6th fav 722 56 7.8% 0.94 −207.00

7th+ in betting 614 20 3.3% 0.92 −256.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Grant Wood (IRE) 23 4 8 15 Sep 26

Emperor Caradoc (FR) 20 4 5 12 Oct 26

Arrange (IRE) 20 3 9 31 Jul 26

Molinari (IRE) 20 4 9 30 Apr 25

Novello Lad (GB) 18 4 11 5 Oct 26

Birkenhead (GB) 18 3 10 10 Mar 26

Ey Up Its The Boss (GB) 18 5 9 25 Aug 25

Leodis Dream (IRE) 18 3 7 11 Mar 25

Run This Way (GB) 17 3 5 26 Oct 26

Urban Dandy (IRE) 17 1 10 6 Nov 25

Havana Prince (GB) 16 4 6 17 Oct 26

Ey Up He's A Star (GB) 16 2 8 12 Oct 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 874 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 6 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Quiet spell

0 from 17 0% · −10.6pts vs baseline

Last 14 days0%

5-season base10.6%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

7139614138111151220

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardDavid O'Meara

26% of all rides
11.9% SR · A/E 1.01

TrainerRWSR£1

David O'Meara 537 64 11.9% −118.56

Paul Midgley 414 43 10.4% −99.77

Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood 161 19 11.8% −5.09

Richard Fahey 130 17 13.1% −8.88

Ivan Furtado 73 10 13.7% +33.00

Martin Todhunter 71 11 15.5% +12.25

Patrick Morris 64 7 10.9% −27.50

Bryan Smart 51 8 15.7% −19.84

David & Nicola Barron 41 3 7.3% −25.25

Kevin Frost 35 1 2.9% −31.25

Michael Dods 31 1 3.2% −24.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

605

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£6.00m

Prize money

2024

Best season · 70 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Alben Star (IRE) — Unibet All-weather Sprint Championships Conditions Stakes Lingfield (AW) · Mar 2016 · Class 2

£93,375

Dolphin Vista (IRE) — totepool Live Info Download The App Handicap Beverley · Aug 2016 · Class 2

£28,013

Brae Hill (IRE) — William Hill Spring Mile (Handicap) (Str) Doncaster · Mar 2014 · Class 2

£28,013

Notable horses

Molinari (IRE) Leodis Dream (IRE) Mayoman (IRE) Ey Up Its The Boss (GB) Mujassam (GB) Alsvinder (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dandy Man (IRE) 11.1% · 11–99

Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,952 runs since 2008 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.

Mehmas (IRE) 13.3% · 8–60

Progeny have won 11.6% of 8,174 runs since 2008 (750 horses).

Mastercraftsman (IRE) 15.8% · 9–57

Progeny have won 10.6% of 11,634 runs since 2008 (842 horses).

Zoustar (AUS) 12.8% · 6–47

Progeny have won 10.8% of 2,753 runs since 2008 (314 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.2% from 330. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 3.6% from 194.

Bated Breath (GB) 6.8% · 3–44

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,157 runs since 2008 (670 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.6% from 850.

Havana Grey (GB) 23.1% · 9–39

Progeny have won 13.2% of 4,576 runs since 2008 (418 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 16.3% from 104. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10% from 418.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 30 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 6,084 · newest first

The latest 50 of 6,084 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 29 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Regalian (GB)T: Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood Make The Move To Midnite Handicap StakesClass 5 · 11f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 9/1

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Alfa Kellenic (GB)T: Ivan Furtado AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap StakesClass 3 · 7f · Standard · 14 ran 7th 33/1

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Jenni (IRE)T: Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 28/1

26 Oct 26 Redcar Run This Way (GB)T: Paul Midgley Thanks And See You Next Season Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 6f · Heavy · 14 ran 5th 12/1

26 Oct 26 Redcar Thunder Roar (GB)T: Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood Jumps Looks Better On Racing Tv Handicap StakesClass 3 · 8f · Heavy · 10 ran 4th 4/1

26 Oct 26 Redcar She's Got Bottle (GB)T: Lizzie Quinlan Market Cross Jewellers Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Heavy · 14 ran 12th 125/1

24 Oct 26 Doncaster Gold Queen Kindly (IRE)T: Roger Fell Rfj And Bee Jays Electrical Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 4 · 7f · Heavy · 12 ran 6th 22/1

24 Oct 26 Doncaster Zarvali (IRE)T: Roger Fell Rfj And Bee Jays Electrical Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 4 · 7f · Heavy · 13 ran 6th 12/1

24 Oct 26 Doncaster Andesite (GB)T: Roger Fell William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap StakesClass 3 · 8f · Heavy · 10 ran 7th 33/1

23 Oct 26 Doncaster Unchartedterritory (IRE)T: David O'Meara William Hill Keep Your Raceday Positive Handicap StakesClass 5 · 10f · Heavy · 18 ran 16th 7/1

20 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Ventura Express (GB)T: Paul Midgley Make The Move To Midnite Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 13 ran 9th 17/2

20 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Texting (GB)T: Ivan Furtado AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 9 ran 3rd 3/1

20 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Tasever (GB)T: Patrick Morris AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 7th 18/1

20 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Get Up Everybody (IRE)T: Paul Midgley All-Weather Championships Is Back Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 14 ran 4th 13/2

17 Oct 26 Catterick Toca Madera (IRE)T: David O'Meara William Hill Catterick Dash Handicap StakesClass 2 · 5f · Good · 12 ran 8th 9/1

17 Oct 26 Catterick Havana Prince (GB)T: Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 4 · 7f · Good · 10 ran 9th 28/1

17 Oct 26 Catterick Helmsley (IRE)T: Ivan Furtado Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 12f · Good · 7 ran 7th 14/1

16 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Masai Angel (FR)T: Richard & Peter Fahey Quaff Box Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 9/2

16 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Emerald Harmony (IRE)T: Paul Midgley Northumbria Leisure For Jukeboxes Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Standard · 11 ran 1st 12/1

16 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) They All Know Me (GB)T: Richard & Peter Fahey Margaret Macklam Memorial Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8f · Standard · 9 ran 2nd 13/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 5 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 3 runs (won 2) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 5 runs (won 1, 1 did not run) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 23 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is David Nolan's strike rate?: David Nolan has won 222 of 2,098 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 10.6% (as at 30 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does David Nolan do best at?: Thirsk by strike rate: 15 wins from 95 rides (15.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does David Nolan ride most for?: David O'Meara, with 537 rides since 2022 — 26% of the total. That pairing has won 64 (11.9%).
Is David Nolan in form?: In the last 14 days: 17 rides, 0 winners, a strike rate of 0%. That is below the baseline of 10.6% since 2022.
What is David Nolan's Fair A/E?: 0.97, from 2,089 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.