True Belief (IRE)
True Belief (IRE) is 2 from 31, both wins coming at Class 5 level. Hasn't won since Oct 2020. Both wins have come on turf — 0 from 20 on the all-weather. Last raced off 64, 14lb below the career-high mark.
- 2–31Wins / Runs
- 6.5%Strike rate
- 12 (38.7%)Placed
- −1.00£1 level staken=31 at SP
- 0.52Fair A/E n=31 · 0.43 incl. margin
- 78Highest OR
- 43dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
Best recent Speed 92
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 28 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (AW) | 19 | 108A | 92 | — |
| Soft | 3 | 104A | 95 | — |
| Good | 3 | 114A | 94 | — |
| Good to Soft | 2 | 82A | 68.5 | — |
| Good to Firm | 2 | 71A | 61 | — |
| Heavy | 1 | — | — | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 28 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6f – 7f | 26 | 114A | 93 | — |
| 1m – 1m1f | 2 | 92B | 86.5 | — |
| Under 6f | 2 | 70A | 60.5 | — |
Of 31 runs looked at, 1 has no figure: not enough races on the card to set the day (under 4) (1).
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 30 figures from 31 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style is derived from in-running commentary, which our data provider does not supply for this horse's races.
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 9% of 3,605 runs since Jan 2008 (244 horses).
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | +4.3 | — |
| Good to Firm | 452 | 43 | 9.5% | +0.5 | 0 from 2 |
| Good | 863 | 96 | 11.1% | +2.1 | 0 from 3 |
| Good to Soft | 468 | 49 | 10.5% | +1.5 | 0 from 2 |
| Soft | 578 | 55 | 9.5% | +0.5 | 2 from 3 |
| Heavy | 228 | 19 | 8.3% | −0.7 | 0 from 1 |
| Standard (AW) | 1,001 | 62 | 6.2% | −2.8 | 0 from 20 |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 182 | 20 | 11% | +2 | 0 from 2 |
| 6f – 7f | 1,089 | 101 | 9.3% | +0.3 | 2 from 27 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 941 | 86 | 9.1% | +0.1 | 0 from 2 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 679 | 55 | 8.1% | −0.9 | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 469 | 41 | 8.7% | −0.3 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 206 | 18 | 8.7% | −0.3 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 36 | 5 | 13.9% | +4.9 | — |
| Over 3m | 3 | 0 | 0% | −9 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 28 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
4 siblings in the archive, 3 winners — best of them Billy Dylan (IRE) (4 wins).
The wins came over 5f–6f; the highest grade won is Class 4 (Billy Dylan (IRE)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Dylan (IRE) | 60 | 4 | 5f–5½f | Class 4 |
| Taxiwala (IRE) | 5 | 1 | 5½f | Class 5 |
| Verified (IRE) | 26 | 1 | 6f | — |
| Scotts' Moon (IRE) | 2 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (AW) | 20 | 0 | 0% | −20.00 |
| Soft | 3 | 2 | 67% | +27.00 |
| Good | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Good to Soft | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Good to Firm | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Heavy | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 5 | 16 | 2 | 13% | +14.00 |
| Class 6 | 11 | 0 | 0% | −11.00 |
| Class 4 | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Class 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kempton (AW) | 8 | 0 | 0% | −8.00 |
| Lingfield (AW) | 7 | 0 | 0% | −7.00 |
| Chelmsford City (AW) | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Yarmouth | 3 | 1 | 33% | +6.00 |
| Windsor | 3 | 1 | 33% | +18.00 |
| Lingfield | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Wolverhampton (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Brighton | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Epsom Downs | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| York | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6f – 7f | 27 | 2 | 7% | +3.00 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Under 6f | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Carson | 7 | 1 | 14% | +2.00 |
| Jack Mitchell | 6 | 0 | 0% | −6.00 |
| Rhys Clutterbuck | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| Rossa Ryan | 5 | 1 | 20% | +16.00 |
| Daniel Muscutt | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| William Buick | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Tom Queally | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Tom Marquand | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| David Egan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hood | 24 | 2 | 8% | +6.00 |
| None | 7 | 0 | 0% | −7.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 7 | 0 | 0% | −7.00 |
| 2020 | 11 | 1 | 9% | −2.00 |
| 2019 | 10 | 1 | 10% | +11.00 |
| 2018 | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 · 7 runs | ||||||||||
| 13 Nov 21+33d | Lingfield (AW) | MansionBet Proud Partners Of The AWC Handicap | 11/11 | 3¾ | 9-0 | 64 | 81C | 46C | Rhys Clutterbuck | 15/2 |
| 11 Oct 21+12d | Yarmouth | Follow At The Races On Twitter Handicap (Div 2) | 5/10 | ¾ | 9-7 | 65 | 82A | 71A | Jack Mitchell | 85/40F |
| 29 Sep 21+20d | Kempton (AW) | Download The MansionBet App Handicap (Div 2) | 7/14 | ½ | 9-8 | 66 | 77B | 74A | Rhys Clutterbuck | 9/2F |
| 09 Sep 21+24d | Chelmsford City (AW) | CCR Membership Available Handicap (Div 2) | 3/12 | ½ | 9-8 | 66 | 92A | 84A | Rhys Clutterbuck | 14/1 |
| 16 Aug 21+9d | Lingfield (AW) | Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap | 6/8 | ¾ | 9-5 | 68 | 100B | 65A | Rhys Clutterbuck | 11/1 |
| 07 Aug 21+24d | Lingfield (AW) | Cazoo Handicap | 5/9 | nk | 9-7 | 69 | 102A | 71A | Rhys Clutterbuck | 18/1 |
| 14 Jul 21+210d | Lingfield | Watch Free Race Replays On Attheraces.com Handicap | 7/8 | 1¾ | 10-3 | 71 | 55C | 45C | William Carson | 10/1 |
| 2020 · 11 runs | ||||||||||
| 16 Dec 20+21d | Kempton (AW) | Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Handicap | 10/14 | 1 | 8-13 | 72 | 101B | 68A | Tom Queally | 25/1 |
| 25 Nov 20+36d | Kempton (AW) | Unibet Casino Deposit 10 Get 40 Bonus Handicap (Div 2) | 10/13 | nk | 9-4 | 72 | 92B | 69A | William Carson | 8/1 |
| 20 Oct 20+8d | Yarmouth | Download The At The Races App Handicap | 2/15 | hd | 10-2 | 64 | 78C | 104A | William Carson | 10/3F |
| 12 Oct 20+30d | Yarmouth | Follow At The Races On Twitter Handicap | 1/11 | 9-6 | 64 | 95A | 90A | William Carson | 8/1 | |
| 12 Sep 20+11d | Lingfield | Read Andrew Balding On Betway Insider Handicap | 2/11 | 4 | 9-7 | 65 | 114A | 84A | William Carson | 22/1 |
| 01 Sep 20+32d | Kempton (AW) | Visit racingtv.com Handicap | 5/13 | nk | 9-10 | 65 | 88B | 78A | William Carson | 7/2F |
| 31 Jul 20+45d | Lingfield (AW) | Betway Handicap | 8/12 | nse | 10-0 | 67 | 94A | 74A | William Carson | 14/1 |
| 16 Jun 20+102d | Windsor | Ultimate Royal Ascot Guide At attheraces.com/ascot Handicap | 10/11 | nk | 9-6 | 69 | 94A | 58A | Daniel Muscutt | 9/2 |
| 06 Mar 20+23d | Chelmsford City (AW) | New tote Handicap | 3/8 | 3¾ | 9-7 | 69 | 91B | 82A | Jack Mitchell | 3/1 |
| 12 Feb 20+13d | Kempton (AW) | Join Racing TV Now Handicap (Div 1) | 2/10 | hd | 9-9 | 67 | 104A | 92A | Jack Mitchell | 11/4F |
| 30 Jan 20+45d | Chelmsford City (AW) | tote.co.uk Handicap | 3/13 | shd | 9-10 | 66 | 106B | 89A | Jack Mitchell | 6/1 |
| 2019 · 10 runs | ||||||||||
| 16 Dec 19+17d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Betway Handicap | 3/13 | ¾ | 9-3 | 66 | 106B | 77A | Daniel Muscutt | 12/1 |
| 29 Nov 19+45d | Kempton (AW) | 32red Casino Handicap | 3/11 | nse | 9-3 | 66 | 108A | 88A | Jack Mitchell | 8/1 |
| 15 Oct 19+8d | Kempton (AW) | 100% Profit Boost At 32RedSport.com Handicap | 2/11 | nk | 9-6 | 59 | 99A | 81A | Rossa Ryan | 9/1 |
| 07 Oct 19+55d | Windsor | Estrella Damm Maiden Stakes | 1/10 | 9-5 | 59 | 104A | 88A | Rossa Ryan | 20/1 | |
| 13 Aug 19+27d | Lingfield (AW) | Racing Welfare Handicap | 9/10 | ½ | 9-6 | 59 | 64A | 39A | Daniel Muscutt | 5/1 |
| 17 Jul 19+29d | Lingfield (AW) | Follow At The Races On Twitter Handicap (AW) | 2/9 | 2¾ | 9-7 | 59 | — | 73A | Rossa Ryan | 10/1 |
| 18 Jun 19+43d | Brighton | Brighton Barbers 'Cutter And Grinder' Handicap | 8/9 | 1 | 9-2 | 63 | 51A | 53A | Rossa Ryan | 14/1 |
| 06 May 19+13d | Windsor | Follow At The Races On Twitter Handicap | 7/10 | nk | 9-4 | 67 | 70A | 61A | Jack Mitchell | 14/1 |
| 23 Apr 19+11d | Lingfield (AW) | Call Star Sports On 08000 521 321 Novice Stakes | 5/8 | 2¾ | 8-12 | 70 | 62A | 51A | Tom Marquand | 33/1 |
| 12 Apr 19+153d | Kempton (AW) | 32Red Casino Novice Stakes | 11/11 | 28 | 9-2 | 78 | 8C | 41C | Rossa Ryan | 33/1 |
| 2018 · 3 runs | ||||||||||
| 10 Nov 18+162d | Chelmsford City (AW) | Bet Toteexacta At Totesport.com Novice Stakes | 5/9 | 2 | 9-2 | — | 74A | 63A | David Egan | 4/5F |
| 01 Jun 18+15d | Epsom Downs | Investec Woodcote EBF Stakes (Conditions Race) (Plus 10) | 7/7 | 7 | 9-0 | — | 19C | 44C | William Buick | 5/2 |
| 17 May 18 | York | Stratford Place Stud Breeds Group Winners ebfstallions.com Maiden Stakes (Plus 10) | 4/9 | nk | 9-5 | — | 71A | 82A | William Buick | 11/8F |
Quick answers
- How many races has True Belief won?
- True Belief (IRE) won 2 of 31 archived starts between 2018 and 2021, a strike rate of 6.5%. Placed 12 times in total (38.7% of starts).
- Who trained True Belief?
- True Belief (IRE) was trained by Brett Johnson on the most recent run on record, at Lingfield (AW) on 13 November 2021.
- Who is True Belief's sire?
- True Belief (IRE) is by Excelebration (IRE) out of It's True (IRE), whose sire is Kheleyf.
- What going does True Belief prefer?
- True Belief (IRE) has the best record on soft going: 2 wins from 3 starts (66.7%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is True Belief's official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 64, from the run on 13 November 2021. The highest on record is 78.
- What is True Belief's sire's record?
- Excelebration (IRE)'s progeny in our archive have won 9% of 3,605 runs since Jan 2008 (244 horses), Flat and jumps together.
- Who are True Belief's siblings?
- Out of It's True (IRE), True Belief (IRE) has 4 other produce in our archive, 3 of them winners. Most wins: Billy Dylan (IRE) (4). Highest grade won: Class 4 (Billy Dylan (IRE)). The wins came over 5f–6f. As at Oct 2026.