What is William Carson's strike rate?

William Carson has won 148 of 2,032 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 7.3% (as at 23 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does William Carson do best at?

Epsom by strike rate: 4 wins from 31 rides (12.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does William Carson ride most for?

Tony Carroll, with 603 rides since 2022 — 30% of the total. That pairing has won 61 (10.1%).

Is William Carson in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 9 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is William Carson's Fair A/E?

0.90, from 2,017 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

William Carson

2,032 rides in the last 5 seasons · 657 individual horses

As at 23 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 2 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

148–2,032

Wins / Runs

7.3%

Strike rate

n=2,032

474 (23%)

Placed

0.90

Fair A/E

n=2,017 · 0.77 incl. margin

−823.90

£1 level stake

n=2,032 at SP · −40.5%

£1.43m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

7.6%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 410 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 7% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.90). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 17% (155 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,032 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 23 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance 40.5% when favourite Tony Carroll: 10.1% from 603 LTO winners: 17.4% Rides the favourite in 6% of races

The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 17.4% (n=155, Fair A/E 1.02), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 2.5% (n=284, Fair A/E 0.56). The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 3.5% strike, Fair A/E 0.65 and −410.50 to a £1 stake over 594 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Tony Carroll supplies 30% of the rides and edges the rider's average (10.1% vs 7.3%, A/E 1.08) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well on Heavy going (19.4%, n=31). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 1.1% over 91 rides, 6.2pts below the baseline. 6 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the John Smith's Ayr Gold Cup Heritage Handicap at Ayr (Sep 2008, £93,465). The standout partner of the record: The Craftymaster (GB) — 9 wins from 28 rides together.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.3% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

3.5%−3.8

n=594 · A/E 0.65 · £1 −410.50

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

17.4%+10.1

n=155 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −42.08

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

2.5%−4.8

n=284 · A/E 0.56 · £1 −203.76

When favourite

40.5%

n=116 · A/E 1.37 · £1 +20.43

Big fields · 14+ runners

3.6%−3.7

n=84 · A/E 0.95 · £1 +29.50

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−7.3

n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 17.4% vs 7.3% · n=155

With Malcolm Saunders 18.5% vs 7.3% · n=54

On Heavy going 19.4% vs 7.3% · n=31

With debutants 0% vs 7.3% · n=68

Off a break of 180+ days 1.1% vs 7.3% · n=91

With C&D winners 11.7% vs 7.3% · n=403

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 1,151 77 6.7% −529.41

Good to Firm 356 29 8.1% −155.36

Good 281 22 7.8% −46.04

Good to Soft 101 4 4% −40.00

Soft 84 6 7.1% −57.77

Heavy 31 6 19.4% −1.42

Firm 28 4 14.3% +6.10

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Lingfield (AW) 382 28 7.3% −171.01

Wolverhampton (AW) 314 20 6.4% −188.99

Kempton (AW) 193 9 4.7% −82.75

Brighton 193 22 11.4% −78.01

Bath 133 8 6% −78.07

Chelmsford City (AW) 126 7 5.6% −23.75

Southwell (AW) 124 11 8.9% −62.16

Chepstow 117 12 10.3% −31.30

Windsor 106 6 5.7% −56.57

Lingfield 57 3 5.3% −28.25

Leicester 45 4 8.9% −20.12

Salisbury 39 4 10.3% −6.00

Yarmouth 36 2 5.6% +9.33

Epsom 31 4 12.9% +62.25

Ffos Las 29 2 6.9% −19.25

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 1,216 96 7.9% −531.00

Class 5 533 32 6% −275.57

Class 4 206 15 7.3% −87.53

Class 3 48 1 2.1% −7.00

Class 2 27 4 14.8% +79.20

Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 141 51 36.2% 1.29 +11.26

2nd–3rd fav 299 44 14.7% 0.90 −74.66

4th–6th fav 661 35 5.3% 0.68 −305.50

7th+ in betting 931 18 1.9% 0.73 −455.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Coolagh Magic (GB) 31 3 9 2 Sep 26

Nordic Glory (IRE) 31 6 13 15 Mar 25

City Cyclone (GB) 29 7 16 9 Apr 26

The Craftymaster (GB) 28 9 15 6 Apr 26

Darlo Pride (GB) 24 4 13 20 Jun 24

Tea Sea (FR) 21 5 10 22 Jun 26

Romanovich (IRE) 18 3 5 28 Sep 26

Fullforward (IRE) 18 1 8 7 May 26

Battle Point (IRE) 17 1 3 8 Jul 25

Diamond Cottage (GB) 17 4 6 7 Jun 25

Cindy Lou Who (GB) 16 4 7 1 Oct 26

Rocking Ends (GB) 16 3 7 1 Feb 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 657 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 7 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 9

Only 9 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

9884777106768

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardTony Carroll

30% of all rides
10.1% SR · A/E 1.08

TrainerRWSR£1

Tony Carroll 603 61 10.1% −160.04

Michael Attwater 289 20 6.9% −77.37

Anthony Carson 140 8 5.7% −94.42

Brett Johnson 76 6 7.9% −34.70

John O'Shea 69 6 8.7% −13.00

Laura Mongan 68 1 1.5% +13.00

Malcolm Saunders 54 10 18.5% −10.00

Michael Madgwick 47 2 4.3% −35.75

John & Rhys Flint 47 4 8.5% −13.80

Bill Turner 47 4 8.5% −21.50

Robyn Brisland 40 1 2.5% −27.00

John Gallagher 39 3 7.7% −30.52

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

696

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£5.10m

Prize money

2012

Best season · 64 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Regal Parade (GB) — John Smith's Ayr Gold Cup Heritage Handicap Ayr · Sep 2008 · Class 2

£93,465

Best Solution (IRE) — Dubai 100 Autumn Stakes (Group 3) Newmarket · Oct 2016 · Group 3

£45,368

Lucky Beggar (IRE) — Adnams Broadside Handicap Newmarket · Jul 2013 · Class 2

£32,345

Notable horses

The Craftymaster (GB) Shifting Star (IRE) Peace Seeker (GB) Nordic Glory (IRE) City Cyclone (GB) Very Well Red (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Cotai Glory (GB) 15.8% · 9–57

Progeny have won 11.5% of 3,924 runs since 2008 (389 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 14.7% from 1,399. Weakest on Soft going: 7.1% from 421.

Dandy Man (IRE) 9.1% · 5–55

Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,928 runs since 2008 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.

Kodiac (GB) 3.7% · 2–54

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,542 runs since 2008 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 252.

Outstrip (GB) 8.3% · 4–48

Progeny have won 8.8% of 3,275 runs since 2008 (239 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 12.8% from 631. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.7% from 263.

Territories (IRE) 14.6% · 7–48

Progeny have won 10.3% of 3,607 runs since 2008 (348 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 13.4% from 537.

Cityscape (GB) 17.1% · 7–41

Progeny have won 9% of 2,990 runs since 2008 (213 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 23 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 8,659 · newest first

The latest 50 of 8,659 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 13 August 2005 to 21 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

21 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Travel Agent (IRE)T: Adam Kirby Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 8th 16/1

19 Oct 26 Bath Wildfell (IRE)T: John & Rhys Flint Elite Racing Club Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 8f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 14th 100/1

17 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Shush A Minute (GB)T: John Ryan Winter Ladies Night Saturday 28th November Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 5th 33/1

17 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Show Me Gold (GB)T: Tom Dascombe Saturday 24th October Gents Night Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 15/2

15 Oct 26 Brighton Berning Hot (IRE)T: Michael Attwater Position Payout At bet365 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good · 13 ran 13th 4/1

13 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Thestral (GB)T: Tony Carroll Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 28/1

13 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Q T Pie (GB)T: Tom Dascombe Cavani Champion Style Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 28/1

12 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Sneaky Blinder (FR)T: Robert Stephens Try Unibet's New Improved Acca Boosts Handicap Stakes (London Stayers' Series Qualifier)Class 6 · 16f · Standard / Slow · 9 ran 4th 22/1

10 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Light Snowfall (GB)T: Saeed bin Suroor Brooklyn Ground Works Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 7 ran 4th 11/2

09 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Heart Throb (FR)T: Tony Carroll Unibet More Extra Place Races Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 9th 100/1

08 Oct 26 Bath Emporess (IRE)T: Tony Carroll Mj Church Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5.5f · Good · 10 ran 10th 40/1

08 Oct 26 Bath Crimson Road (IRE)T: John & Rhys Flint Find My Hospitality Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 10f · Good · 9 ran 3rd 11/2

07 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Jackson Street (IRE)T: Michael Attwater Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 7th 50/1

06 Oct 26 Brighton Everydaysasaturday (IRE)T: Tony Carroll Play Your Multiples At matchbook.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 4th 33/1

06 Oct 26 Brighton Berning Hot (IRE)T: Michael Attwater Matchbook Monthly Bet- Builder Rebate Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 5th 8/1

05 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Wildfell (IRE)T: John & Rhys Flint Set Your Limits With Unibet Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 12th 100/1

05 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Katana (FR)T: Robert Stephens Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 12f · Standard / Slow · 7 ran 7th 250/1

03 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Cloud Forest (GB)T: Saeed bin Suroor Bettingsites.co.uk Free Bet Offers Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 1st 1/1F

03 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Jaipur Prince (IRE)T: Adam Kirby Bettingsites.co.uk New Customer Offers Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 100/1

02 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Cabeza De Llave (GB)T: Michael Attwater Position Payout At bet365 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 11 ran 4th 9/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is William Carson's strike rate?: William Carson has won 148 of 2,032 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 7.3% (as at 23 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does William Carson do best at?: Epsom by strike rate: 4 wins from 31 rides (12.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does William Carson ride most for?: Tony Carroll, with 603 rides since 2022 — 30% of the total. That pairing has won 61 (10.1%).
Is William Carson in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 9 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is William Carson's Fair A/E?: 0.90, from 2,017 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.