What is Daniel Muscutt's strike rate?

Daniel Muscutt has won 491 of 3,744 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 13.1% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Daniel Muscutt do best at?

Newcastle (AW) by strike rate: 37 wins from 213 rides (17.4%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Daniel Muscutt ride most for?

James Fanshawe, with 622 rides since 2022 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 106 (17%).

Is Daniel Muscutt in form?

In the last 14 days: 29 rides, 3 winners, a strike rate of 10.3%. That is in line with the baseline of 13.1% since 2022.

What is Daniel Muscutt's Fair A/E?

1.00, from 3,725 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Daniel Muscutt

3,744 rides in the last 5 seasons · 1,960 individual horses

As at 8 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride yesterday 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2012→)

from 1 Jan 2022

491–3,744

Wins / Runs

13.1%

Strike rate

n=3,744

1,263 (34%)

Placed

1.00

Fair A/E

n=3,725 · 0.86 incl. margin

−983.33

£1 level stake

n=3,744 at SP · −26.3%

£7.06m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

13.8%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 750 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 13% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.00). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 23% (398 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 3,744 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 8 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Dec–Feb Fresh horses: 14.8% 34.6% when favourite James Fanshawe: 17% from 622 LTO winners: 22.6% Rides the favourite in 14% of races

The read

It is weakest at Ascot (1.7% over 58 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 22.6% (n=398, Fair A/E 1.05), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 7.3% (n=150, Fair A/E 0.82). James Fanshawe supplies 17% of the rides and edges the rider's average (17% vs 13.1%, A/E 1.06) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly in Class 2 — 6.1% over 280 rides, 7pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider in Class 1: Fair A/E 0.82 across 150 rides (7.3% strike, −84.10 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 13 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Criterium de Saint-Cloud at Saint-Cloud (FR) (Oct 2022, £120,042). The standout partner of the record: Mulzim (GB) — 7 wins from 17 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Dec–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 13.1% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

11.2%−1.9

n=1,853 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −572.12

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

22.6%+9.5

n=398 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −61.95

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

14.8%+1.7

n=582 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −136.10

When favourite

34.6%

n=518 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −44.28

Big fields · 14+ runners

8.2%−4.9

n=319 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −84.70

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

7.3%−5.8

n=150 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −84.10

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 13.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 22.6% vs 13.1% · n=398

At Ascot 1.7% vs 13.1% · n=58

With Charlie & Mark Johnston 26.7% vs 13.1% · n=30

In Class 2 6.1% vs 13.1% · n=280

At Haydock 4.5% vs 13.1% · n=67

In Class 1 7.3% vs 13.1% · n=150

This filter uses derived form angles computed for 8.2% of the archive so far (as at 8 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 2,356 336 14.3% −621.03

Good to Firm 519 57 11% −211.10

Good 463 60 13% −40.56

Good to Soft 214 22 10.3% −44.69

Soft 149 13 8.7% −45.85

Heavy 41 3 7.3% −18.10

Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton (AW) 633 93 14.7% −155.63

Wolverhampton (AW) 475 79 16.6% −60.45

Southwell (AW) 425 54 12.7% −126.47

Lingfield (AW) 339 42 12.4% −135.97

Chelmsford (AW) 270 31 11.5% −104.29

Newcastle (AW) 213 37 17.4% −37.22

Yarmouth 181 21 11.6% −3.88

Doncaster 118 20 16.9% +14.43

Windsor 103 8 7.8% −59.25

Leicester 95 16 16.8% +1.12

Newmarket 78 8 10.3% −17.62

Newmarket 74 5 6.8% −39.75

Goodwood 74 6 8.1% −35.30

Newbury 72 6 8.3% −3.30

Haydock 67 3 4.5% −39.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 1,252 176 14.1% −327.98

Class 6 880 131 14.9% −143.51

Class 4 877 113 12.9% −275.11

Class 3 305 43 14.1% +21.06

Class 2 280 17 6.1% −173.69

Class 1 150 11 7.3% −84.10

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 587 198 33.7% 1.09 −42.75

2nd–3rd fav 1,036 167 16.1% 0.93 −225.08

4th–6th fav 1,233 97 7.9% 0.97 −343.00

7th+ in betting 888 29 3.3% 0.97 −372.50

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Diderot (GB) 18 3 9 7 Feb 25

Willem Twee (GB) 16 4 8 6 Apr 26

Covert Mission (FR) 15 4 7 29 Jul 24

Solanna (GB) 14 5 8 30 Aug 26

Back In Black (IRE) 14 2 9 15 Aug 26

Wannabe Brave (IRE) 14 2 6 24 May 25

Heathcliff (GB) 13 4 8 4 Nov 26

Sky Safari (GB) 12 6 8 16 Sep 26

Charmaine (GB) 12 3 8 2 Aug 26

Wonder Legend (IRE) 12 4 6 2 Aug 25

Al Ameen (IRE) 11 1 2 29 Jan 25

Rocket Rodney (GB) 11 2 7 3 Aug 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 1,960 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 7 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Steady

3 from 29 10.3% · −2.8pts vs baseline

Last 14 days10.3%

5-season base13.1%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

16221319121110141111715

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardJames Fanshawe

17% of all rides
17% SR · A/E 1.06

TrainerRWSR£1

James Fanshawe 622 106 17% −95.04

James Ferguson 443 72 16.3% −34.70

Kevin Philippart De Foy 293 41 14% −40.22

John Butler 148 25 16.9% −49.35

George Scott 123 19 15.4% −47.59

Ed Dunlop 97 12 12.4% −13.60

Joseph Parr 87 16 18.4% +5.51

Charlie Johnston 86 7 8.1% −43.80

George Boughey 71 14 19.7% +4.06

Marco Botti 55 4 7.3% −32.75

Tom Ward 51 4 7.8% −31.92

Stuart Williams 51 5 9.8% −26.05

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2012→

828

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£10.0m

Prize money

2022

Best season · 129 wins

Dubai Mile (IRE) — Criterium de Saint-Cloud (2yo) (Turf) Saint-Cloud (FR) · Oct 2022 · Group 1

£120,042

Deauville Legend (IRE) — Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group 2) York · Aug 2022 · Group 2

£113,420

Deauville Legend (IRE) — Bahrain Trophy Stakes (Group 3) Newmarket · Jul 2022 · Group 3

£113,420

Notable horses

Mulzim (GB) Sky Safari (GB) Bayston Hill (GB) Solanna (GB) Tommys Geal (GB) Covert Mission (FR)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Sea The Stars (IRE) 19.8% · 21–106

Progeny have won 15.7% of 9,985 runs since 2013 (1,118 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 18.9% from 1,503. Weakest on Heavy going: 9.4% from 457. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 11.5% from 139.

Dark Angel (IRE) 13.3% · 12–90

Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,953 runs since 2011 (1,596 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.

Havana Grey (GB) 16.5% · 14–85

Progeny have won 13.2% of 4,611 runs since 2022 (420 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 16.2% from 105. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 9.9% from 424.

Lope De Vega (IRE) 12% · 10–83

Progeny have won 13.8% of 12,230 runs since 2014 (1,109 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.4% from 960.

Dandy Man (IRE) 10.5% · 8–76

Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,988 runs since 2013 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.

Kodiac (GB) 11.9% · 8–67

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,603 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 8 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 6,974 · newest first

The latest 50 of 6,974 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 17 May 2012 to 7 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Sahm Naif (IRE)T: James Horton Midnite Built Different Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 5/1

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Shankari (GB)T: James Fanshawe ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back EBF "Confined" Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D With No More Than Three Runs) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 5th 40/1

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Final Conquest (IRE)T: James Horton AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 10th 28/1

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Titainium (GB)T: Grant Tuer All-Weather Championship Is Back Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 2nd 11/4F

05 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Mountain Of Light (GB)T: James Horton AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 7/1

05 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Harrow On The Hill (IRE)T: George Scott AWC Season 14 Has Begun EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 3 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 6th 10/1

04 Nov 26 Kempton (AW) Heathcliff (GB)T: James Fanshawe Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Handicap StakesClass 2 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 9 ran 3rd 11/1

04 Nov 26 Kempton (AW) Ensconced (GB)T: James Fanshawe British EBF Future Stayers Maiden Stakes (Sire And Dam Restricted Race) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 11th 28/1

04 Nov 26 Kempton (AW) Spicey Bear (IRE)T: James Fanshawe Unibet/British EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (Div II) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 12 ran 12th 7/1

04 Nov 26 Kempton (AW) Final Dash (GB)T: James Fanshawe Unibet/British EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (Div I) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 12th 80/1

03 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Moving Force (IRE)T: Mark Loughnane Midnite Aint Your Grandads Bookie Handicap StakesClass 4 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 5th 16/1

02 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Archer's Grace (IRE)T: James Fanshawe AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Standard · 8 ran 4th 9/4J

02 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Cranberry Breeze (IRE)T: James Keane AWC Season 14 Has Begun EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 250/1

02 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Blue Pete (IRE)T: Michael Appleby AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 1st 11/8F

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Theheatison (GB)T: Nick Scholfield Hurworth Blooodstock Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 7f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 12th 150/1

31 Oct 26 Newmarket The Liffey (IRE)T: Hayley Burton Dusseldorf's Henkel 169 German Oaks Handicap StakesClass 3 · 8f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 13th 50/1

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Astral Mist (IRE)T: William Haggas Cologne's 65 Preis Von Europa British Ebf Fillies' Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 3 · 7f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 8th 25/1

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Back To Me (IRE)T: Patrick Chamings Prestige Vehicles Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 4 · 6f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 7th 18/1

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Revelio (GB)T: Tom Clover Midnite Ain't Your Grandad's Bookie Handicap StakesClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 12 ran 7th 9/1

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Oliver Show (IRE)T: George Boughey AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap StakesClass 3 · 7f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 12/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 5 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 5 runs (won 3) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 2 runs (won 1) · fastest on KTB Speed in 7 runs (won 3) · to 28 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Daniel Muscutt's strike rate?: Daniel Muscutt has won 491 of 3,744 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 13.1% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Daniel Muscutt do best at?: Newcastle (AW) by strike rate: 37 wins from 213 rides (17.4%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Daniel Muscutt ride most for?: James Fanshawe, with 622 rides since 2022 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 106 (17%).
Is Daniel Muscutt in form?: In the last 14 days: 29 rides, 3 winners, a strike rate of 10.3%. That is in line with the baseline of 13.1% since 2022.
What is Daniel Muscutt's Fair A/E?: 1.00, from 3,725 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.