Horse profile
Uncertainty (IRE)
16 runs · 13 courses · from Jul 2025
As at 18 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: GB, Ireland & France · 2005–present, updated daily
Won last time out
Won at Redcar
Ran yesterday · 1st of 18
Last raced off OR 55
KTB Profile
Uncertainty (IRE) is 1 from 16, the win coming at Class 6 level. Won last time out at Redcar (Class 6). The win came on turf — 0 from 4 on the all-weather, and the win came on good or faster ground (0 from 3 on softer).
Based on 16 archived runs · run-style from 5 commented runs · updated 18 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance
Won on turf, 0 on AW
Wins on good or faster
Win at Class 6
OR ↓ 15lb off peak
- 1–16Wins / Runs
- 6.3%Strike rate
- 4 (25%)Placed
- +25.00£1 level staken=16 at SP
- 1.22Fair A/E n=16 · 1.00 incl. margin
- 70Highest OR
- 31dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
Official rating55↓ 15lb off peak
55
55–70
KTB Speed and Rating
KTB Speed
Best recent Speed 95
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
Flat
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 18 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good | 7 | 97C | 83 | 7 · 97 / 83 |
| Standard (AW) | 4 | 81A | 77.5 | 2 · 78 / 66 |
| Good to Firm | 2 | 84B | 83.5 | — |
| Good to Soft | 1 | — | — | 1 · — |
| Soft | 1 | — | — | — |
| Heavy | 1 | — | — | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 18 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6f – 7f | 15 | 97C | 78 | 9 · 97 / 78 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 1 | — | — | 1 · — |
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 16 figures from 16 runs · as at 18 Oct 2026 · 1 recent figure provisional (may move for 7 days) · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style from 5 analysed runs
- Midfield 2 (40%) · 1 win
- Led 2 (40%) · 0 wins
- Prominent 1 (20%) · 0 wins
Pedigree intelligence
Sire
Progeny in our archive have won 10% of 1,258 runs since Jan 2008 (158 horses).
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | −0.9 | — |
| Good to Firm | 251 | 25 | 10% | 0 | 0 from 2 |
| Good | 352 | 33 | 9.4% | −0.6 | 1 from 7 |
| Good to Soft | 103 | 10 | 9.7% | −0.3 | 0 from 1 |
| Soft | 103 | 12 | 11.7% | +1.7 | 0 from 1 |
| Heavy | 31 | 5 | 16.1% | +6.1 | 0 from 1 |
| Standard (AW) | 407 | 40 | 9.8% | −0.2 | 0 from 4 |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 86 | 8 | 9.3% | −0.7 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 598 | 66 | 11% | +1 | 1 from 15 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 328 | 27 | 8.2% | −1.8 | 0 from 1 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 202 | 22 | 10.9% | +0.9 | — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 35 | 3 | 8.6% | −1.4 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 8 | 0 | 0% | −10 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 1 | 0 | 0% | −10 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 18 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
Dam
5 siblings in the archive, 2 winners — best of them Danville (GB) (3 wins).
The wins came over 1m–1m2f; the highest grade won is Class 3 (Danville (GB)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danville (GB) | 15 | 3 | 1m–1m2f | Class 3 |
| Mashaheer (GB) | 6 | 1 | 1m½f | Class 5 |
| Anna Aurelia (GB) | 6 | 0 | — | — |
| Conquering (GB) | 6 | 0 | — | — |
| Mrs Nell (GB) | 6 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good | 7 | 1 | 14% | +34.00 |
| Standard (AW) | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Good to Firm | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Good to Soft | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Soft | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Heavy | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 5 | 7 | 0 | 0% | −7.00 |
| Class 6 | 5 | 1 | 20% | +36.00 |
| Class 4 | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Class 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redcar | 2 | 1 | 50% | +39.00 |
| Ripon | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Doncaster | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Pontefract | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Newcastle (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Thirsk | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Southwell (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Lingfield (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Chelmsford City (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Curragh | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Windsor | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Goodwood | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Newbury | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6f – 7f | 15 | 1 | 7% | +26.00 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Elliott | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Tom Eaves | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Alec Voikhansky | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Sam Hitchcott | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Barry McHugh | 1 | 1 | 100% | +40.00 |
| David Nolan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Olivia Haines | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Luke Morris | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Zak Wheatley | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Chris Hayes | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Sean Levey | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9 | 1 | 11% | +32.00 |
| 2025 | 7 | 0 | 0% | −7.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 26+20d | Redcar | racingtv.com Handicap Stakes In mid-pack early - pushed along 2f out and kept on steadily - sustained late run inside final furlong - edged ahead between rivals close home to win narrowly | 1/18 | 9-2 | 55 | 97C | 92A | Barry McHugh | 40/1 | |
| 26 Sep 26+9d | Ripon | Michael Raby Memorial Handicap Stakes (Div II) Settled towards the back of the pack early - pushed along with over 3f left and unable to close on the front group - kept going at one gait through the closing stages to finish seventh | 7/10 | ½ | 9-5 | 58 | 74A | 62A | David Nolan | 20/1 |
| 17 Sep 26+8d | Pontefract | Go Racing In Yorkshire Future Stars Apprentice Handicap Stakes Settled handy early - travelled unevenly through the pack - unable to threaten the front from over a furlong out - finished 5th beaten 3 lengths | 5/12 | ½ | 9-2 | 61 | 95A | 73A | Olivia Haines | 40/1 |
| 09 Sep 26+40d | Redcar | Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap Stakes Held mid-pack towards the far rail early - faded and drifted inward approaching halfway - slipped to the tail entering the final furlong and finished well adrift | 14/15 | 6 | 9-6 | 61 | 66C | 46C | Andrew Elliott | 25/1 |
| 31 Jul 26+47d | Newcastle (AW) | Quinnbet Extra Place Handicap Stakes (Div I) Fought for control early - went clear in front before being overtaken 2f out - drifted right and dropped away inside final furlong | 6/10 | 4¼ | 9-9 | 64 | 78A | 57A | Andrew Elliott | 28/1 |
| 14 Jun 26+9d | Doncaster | Summer Saturday Series At Doncaster Racecourse Handicap Dwelt at the start - pulled hard towards the back - progress 2f out - driven and stayed on inside the final furlong - closest at the line to take 7th | 7/15 | nk | 9-8 | 64 | 94C | 71A | Tom Eaves | 50/1 |
| 05 Jun 26+8d | Thirsk | Next Meeting Tuesday 16th June Featuring Royal Ascot Handicap Held in the pack throughout - unable to land a blow - finished ninth | 9/13 | ¾ | 9-4 | 67 | 83C | 58A | Andrew Elliott | 50/1 |
| 28 May 26+12d | Ripon | Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap Settled towards the back - asked for effort with 2f to run - made no impression on the leaders - finished 7th | 7/11 | ¾ | 9-7 | 67 | 72A | 61A | Tom Eaves | 50/1 |
| 16 May 26+177d | Doncaster | attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap Chased front-runner in early stages - slipped back before halfway - eased out of contention 2f out - finished well held in 8th | 8/8 | 7½ | 9-7 | 69 | 60A | 34A | Luke Morris | 22/1 |
| 20 Nov 25+37d | Southwell (AW) | Take Time Out During SGWEEK25! Nursery (GBBPlus Race) Sat close to front pack early - pushed along with 3f left - lost touch inside final 2f - finished fourth | 4/4 | 2½ | 8-8 | 70 | 54C | 47B | Zak Wheatley | 33/1 |
| 14 Oct 25+12d | Lingfield (AW) | Arc All-Weather 1MILLION Bonus Is Back Nursery Settled midfield early - improved position approaching final furlong - moved into second inside the closing stages - stayed on to finish runner-up | 2/14 | 1¼ | 9-4 | 68 | 77B | 74A | Alec Voikhansky | 8/1 |
| 02 Oct 25+18d | Chelmsford City (AW) | betting.betfair.com Nursery Settled in the pack early - lost touch with the front three furlongs out and slipped towards the back - found another gear in the closing stages to close ground - stayed on late but never enough to challenge those in front | 4/9 | ¾ | 9-6 | 70 | 81A | 68A | Alec Voikhansky | 9/2 |
| 14 Sep 25+34d | Curragh | Tattersalls Ireland Super Auction Sales Stakes Sat close to the pace early - 4th at halfway - pushed along and unable to quicken 2f out - eventually well held in 14th | 14/16 | shd | 8-10 | 70 | 5C | 64A | Chris Hayes | 28/1 |
| 11 Aug 25+11d | Windsor | Find Us At fitzdares.com Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) Tracked the front group from an inner spot - urged forward around halfway then blocked and moved left approaching the final furlong - stayed on at one level in 3rd close home | 3/12 | ¾ | 9-0 | — | 84B | 75A | Sam Hitchcott | 13/2 |
| 31 Jul 25+21d | Goodwood | Tatler British EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race) Towards the back - moved across to the far rail approaching 3f out - drifted right and out of contention from 2f out | 10/13 | 2½ | 9-2 | — | 9C | 57C | Sean Levey | 5/1 |
| 10 Jul 25 | Newbury | Win Races With Jonathan Portman EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 2) Settled towards the back early - improving position but boxed in with a furlong left - shifted to find running room - finished strongly once free to challenge | 2/9 | 2¼ | 9-2 | — | 83A | 72A | Sam Hitchcott | 14/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Uncertainty (IRE) won?
- Uncertainty (IRE) won 1 of 16 archived starts between 2025 and 2026, a strike rate of 6.3%. Placed 4 times in total (25% of starts).
- Who trains Uncertainty (IRE)?
- Uncertainty (IRE) is trained by Simon Whitaker, who saddled the horse on its most recent run on 16 October 2026.
- Who is Uncertainty (IRE)'s sire?
- Uncertainty (IRE) is by Mohaather (GB) out of Faustinatheyounger (IRE), whose sire is Antonius Pius.
- What going does Uncertainty (IRE) prefer?
- Uncertainty (IRE) has the best record on good going: 1 win from 7 starts (14.3%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Uncertainty (IRE)'s official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 55, from the run on 16 October 2026. The highest on record is 70.
- What is Uncertainty (IRE)'s sire's record?
- Mohaather (GB)'s progeny in our archive have won 10% of 1,258 runs since Jan 2008 (158 horses), Flat and jumps together.
- Who are Uncertainty (IRE)'s siblings?
- Out of Faustinatheyounger (IRE), Uncertainty (IRE) has 5 other produce in our archive, 2 of them winners. Most wins: Danville (GB) (3). Highest grade won: Class 3 (Danville (GB)). The wins came over 1m–1m2f. As at Oct 2026.