What is Zak Wheatley's strike rate?

Zak Wheatley has won 84 of 967 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8.7% (as at 11 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Zak Wheatley do best at?

Musselburgh by strike rate: 9 wins from 56 rides (16.1%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Zak Wheatley ride most for?

Declan Carroll, with 662 rides since 2022 — 68% of the total. That pairing has won 67 (10.1%).

Is Zak Wheatley in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 5 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Zak Wheatley's Fair A/E?

1.06, from 962 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Zak Wheatley

967 rides in the last 5 seasons · 269 individual horses

As at 11 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 6 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2017→)

from 1 Jan 2022

84–967

Wins / Runs

8.7%

Strike rate

n=967

232 (24%)

Placed

1.06

Fair A/E

n=962 · 0.90 incl. margin

−191.35

£1 level stake

n=967 at SP · −19.8%

£990k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

7.9%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 190 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.06). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 12% (93 rides). Rides mostly for Declan Carroll — 68% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 967 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 11 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 21.8% when favourite Declan Carroll: 10.1% from 662 LTO winners: 11.8% Claiming: 9% Rides the favourite in 6% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Musselburgh (16.1%, n=56) and Chester (14.8%, n=54) — all clear of the rider's 8.7% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 11.8% (n=93, Fair A/E 0.86), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 5.1% (n=137, Fair A/E 0.99). Declan Carroll supplies 68% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (10.1%, A/E 1.11) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well off a 0-7-day break (18.2%, n=55). The record reads poorly in Class 3 — 2.9% over 34 rides, 5.8pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider over 1m – 1m1f: Fair A/E 0.63 across 136 rides (4.4% strike, −94.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes at York (Aug 2025, £141,775). The standout partner of the record: Isle Of Dreams (GB) — 6 wins from 18 rides together.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.7% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

6.6%−2.1

n=256 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −120.67

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

11.8%+3.1

n=93 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −26.50

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

5.1%−3.6

n=137 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −45.00

When favourite

21.8%

n=55 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −15.34

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

9%+0.3

n=790 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −87.73

Big fields · 14+ runners

5.5%−3.2

n=110 · A/E 1.07 · £1 +1.50

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

20%+11.3

n=5 · A/E 3.45 · £1 +2.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Off a 0-7-day break 18.2% vs 8.7% · n=55

At Musselburgh 16.1% vs 8.7% · n=56

At Chester 14.8% vs 8.7% · n=54

Off a 61-180-day break 3.6% vs 8.7% · n=84

Over 1m – 1m1f 4.4% vs 8.7% · n=136

In Class 3 2.9% vs 8.7% · n=34

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 305 27 8.9% +11.13

Good 243 17 7% −104.22

Good to Firm 178 19 10.7% −39.22

Good to Soft 113 9 8% +1.75

Soft 100 11 11% −35.79

Heavy 28 1 3.6% −25.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Southwell (AW) 161 15 9.3% −10.12

Beverley 86 9 10.5% −35.47

Newcastle (AW) 75 3 4% −4.00

Catterick 69 8 11.6% +28.50

Redcar 67 5 7.5% −7.00

Wolverhampton (AW) 62 8 12.9% +15.25

Thirsk 60 6 10% −15.00

Musselburgh 56 9 16.1% −1.22

Chester 54 8 14.8% +27.08

Pontefract 48 2 4.2% −38.50

Doncaster 41 2 4.9% −31.75

Carlisle 29 4 13.8% −2.00

Nottingham 25 0 0% −25.00

Hamilton 23 2 8.7% −11.12

York 20 1 5% −12.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 463 47 10.2% +19.99

Class 5 276 21 7.6% −126.30

Class 4 160 13 8.1% −51.04

Class 3 34 1 2.9% −24.50

Class 2 28 1 3.6% −11.00

Class 1 5 1 20% +2.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 71 14 19.7% 0.77 −20.34

2nd–3rd fav 153 35 22.9% 1.48 +39.49

4th–6th fav 295 24 8.1% 1.06 −56.50

7th+ in betting 448 11 2.5% 0.76 −154.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Dr Rio (FR) 33 5 10 23 Oct 26

Basholo (IRE) 28 4 11 27 Apr 26

Thankuappreciate (GB) 25 3 9 11 Apr 26

Willolarupi (IRE) 24 3 9 23 Oct 26

Rwenearlytheredad (GB) 24 5 9 12 Oct 26

Fortunate Star (IRE) 24 2 5 6 Jun 25

Irish Dancer (IRE) 23 3 9 17 Aug 26

Emerald Army (IRE) 19 2 9 5 Nov 25

Hickton (IRE) 17 3 7 4 Nov 26

Changeofmind (IRE) 17 1 4 19 Oct 26

Fuji Mountain (IRE) 16 2 4 16 Jun 26

Alessia Fernanda (IRE) 15 1 2 23 Oct 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 269 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 5

Only 5 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

697117814894148

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardDeclan Carroll

68% of all rides
10.1% SR · A/E 1.11

TrainerRWSR£1

Declan Carroll 662 67 10.1% −111.10

Stella Barclay 56 4 7.1% −2.75

John Wainwright 43 3 7% +23.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2017→

102

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.13m

Prize money

2024

Best season · 21 wins

Lifeplan (IRE) — Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) (In Honour Of Tom Lacy) York · Aug 2025 · Group 2

£141,775

Emiyn (FR) — Deepbridge Watergate Cup Handicap Chester · Sep 2022 · Class 2

£51,025

Alessia Fernanda (IRE) — LiveScore Bet Fillies' Handicap Musselburgh · Apr 2025 · Class 3

£13,085

Notable horses

Isle Of Dreams (GB) Dr Rio (FR) Rwenearlytheredad (GB) Brandy Station (IRE) Basholo (IRE) Thankuappreciate (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 9.3% · 5–54

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,873 runs since 2008 (1,574 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 844.

Kodiac (GB) 7.8% · 4–51

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,604 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.

Camacho (GB) 9.8% · 4–41

Progeny have won 8.1% of 9,326 runs since 2009 (596 horses).

Rio de La Plata (USA) 15.2% · 5–33

Progeny have won 10.3% of 1,524 runs since 2016 (153 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 4.7% from 255.

Fountain Of Youth (IRE) 16.1% · 5–31

Progeny have won 7.3% of 1,075 runs since 2019 (104 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 10.9% from 201. Weakest on Soft going: 3.9% from 103. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 11.3% from 124. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.8% from 158.

Caravaggio (USA) 14.3% · 4–28

Progeny have won 11.8% of 1,778 runs since 2021 (201 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16.3% from 166.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 11 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,210 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,210 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 16 June 2017 to 5 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

05 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Project Wallace (IRE)T: Declan Carroll Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 7th 8/1

05 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Rum Point (IRE)T: Declan Carroll Midnite It's Actually Pretty Good Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 6th 7/1

05 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Likeadyinwasp (IRE)T: Declan Carroll All-Weather Championship Is Back Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 13 ran 10th 18/1

04 Nov 26 Musselburgh Hickton (IRE)T: Declan Carroll Burton Roofing Merchants Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 12.5f · Soft · 10 ran 10th 16/1

04 Nov 26 Musselburgh Ganesha (GB)T: Phillip Makin Veronika Walker: Moments That Matter Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Soft · 11 ran 7th 22/1

26 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Yesnia (IRE)T: Declan Carroll Midnite Are Upping The Betting Game Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 4th 25/1

24 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Mount Ruapehu (IRE)T: Iain Jardine Create Your Bet Builders At Midnite Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 4th 15/2

24 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Hickton (IRE)T: Declan Carroll Join The Midnite Movement Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 14/1

23 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Dr Rio (FR)T: Declan Carroll Midnite Aint Your Grandads Bookie Selling Handicap StakesClass 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 10 ran 5th 10/1

23 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Willolarupi (IRE)T: Declan Carroll Make The Move To Midnite Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 7 ran 3rd 22/1

23 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Alessia Fernanda (IRE)T: Declan Carroll AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd January 2027 Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 40/1

19 Oct 26 Pontefract Changeofmind (IRE)T: Declan Carroll William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Heavy · 9 ran 5th 11/1

19 Oct 26 Pontefract Paphos (IRE)T: Declan Carroll Happy 80th Birthday William 'bill' Carr Maiden Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 6f · Soft · 6 ran 5th 20/1

17 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Youngheartsrunfree (IRE)T: Declan Carroll Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 40/1

17 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Avatar Jet (IRE)T: Declan Carroll Book The Bistro In Seasons Restaurant Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 9/2

16 Oct 26 Haydock Sujet (GB)T: Declan Carroll M6Toll Road To Victory Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 3 · 8f · Heavy · 10 ran 10th 80/1

15 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Gloriola (GB)T: Steph Hollinshead Follow @AtTheRaces On X Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 33/1

14 Oct 26 Nottingham Solid Bond (IRE)T: Declan Carroll Racedays For £9 At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 7th 5/1

12 Oct 26 Musselburgh Falaise Blanc (FR)T: Katie Scott Racing TV Handicap StakesClass 6 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 4th 40/1

12 Oct 26 Musselburgh Rwenearlytheredad (GB)T: Declan Carroll Musselburgh Members Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 6th 4/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 8 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 3 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 2 runs (won 0, 1 did not run) · to 24 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Zak Wheatley's strike rate?: Zak Wheatley has won 84 of 967 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8.7% (as at 11 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Zak Wheatley do best at?: Musselburgh by strike rate: 9 wins from 56 rides (16.1%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Zak Wheatley ride most for?: Declan Carroll, with 662 rides since 2022 — 68% of the total. That pairing has won 67 (10.1%).
Is Zak Wheatley in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 5 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Zak Wheatley's Fair A/E?: 1.06, from 962 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.