Adrien Moreau
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 40 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 7% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.98).
It is weakest at Maisons-Laffitte (FR) (2.8% over 36 rides) — the widest gap in the record. The market has consistently overbet rides in big fields of 14 or more: 3.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.72 and −98.70 to a £1 stake over 188 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. N Caullery supplied 26% of the rides and edges the rider's average (10.6% vs 6.5%, A/E 1.12) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also read well off a 31-60-day break (9.5%, n=84). The record read poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 32 rides, 6.5pts below the baseline. Seasonally, the rider fired Jul–Aug.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.5% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2013→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 403 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 403 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 18 June 2013 to 18 April 2021.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Adrien Moreau's strike rate?
- Adrien Moreau has won 26 of 403 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 6.5% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Adrien Moreau do best at?
- Deauville (FR) by strike rate: 12 wins from 129 rides (9.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Adrien Moreau ride most for?
- N Caullery, with 104 rides since 2008 — 26% of the total. That pairing has won 11 (10.6%).
- What is Adrien Moreau's Fair A/E?
- 0.98, from 400 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.