Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 10.8% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
7%−3.8
n=43 · A/E 1.29 · £1 −18.50
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
33.3%+22.5
n=6 · A/E 5.37 · £1 +9.20
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
15%+4.2
n=20 · A/E 2.70 · £1 +18.30
When favourite
0%
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
10.3%−0.5
n=29 · A/E 1.83 · £1 −1.10
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−10.8
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 1m2f – 1m4f16.7% vs 10.8% · n=36
On first rides for the horse7% vs 10.8% · n=43
In Flat races10.9% vs 10.8% · n=64 · A/E 1.78
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat64710.9%−0.80
NH Flat100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)26415.4%+9.30
Soft1516.7%−9.50
Good to Soft9222.2%+13.40
Good800%−8.00
Heavy600%−6.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Chantilly (FR)1317.7%−7.80
Deauville (FR)10110%−3.40
Lyon Parilly (FR)700%−7.00
Strasbourg (FR)700%−7.00
Vittel (FR)700%−7.00
Vichy (FR)600%−6.00
Nancy (FR)300%−3.00
Lyon-La Soie (FR)3266.7%+20.50
Saint-Cloud (FR)3133.3%+5.60
Fontainebleau (FR)2150%+11.80
Cagnes-Sur-Mer (FR)2150%+3.50
Dieppe (FR)100%−1.00
Aix-Les-Bains (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 415213.3%+8.50
Class 3400%−4.00
Class 1200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite3133.3%1.46+1.50
2nd–3rd fav5240%2.73+5.70
4th–6th fav20210%1.33−4.80
7th+ in betting3725.4%1.91−4.20
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f36616.7%+20.60
1m – 1m1f1700%−17.00
6f – 7f7114.3%−0.40
1m5f – 2m500%−5.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20228225%+3.80
2023100%−1.00
2024200%−2.00
202516318.8%+11.90
20263825.3%−14.50
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps23521.7%+16.70
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners28310.7%−0.10
11-13 runners19315.8%+9.70
8-10 runners1300%−13.00
5-7 runners4125%+2.60
17+ runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 44 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 3
Only 3 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
2067025··0002000
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 12.5% of 88 runs since 2008 (25 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 168 · newest first
The latest 50 of 168 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 24 September 2008 to 11 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Bertrand Flandrin's strike rate?
Bertrand Flandrin has won 7 of 65 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 10.8% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Bertrand Flandrin in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 3 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Bertrand Flandrin's Fair A/E?
1.76, from 65 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Bertrand Flandrin·SR 10.8%·A/E 1.76
KTB
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