Darren Williams
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 140 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.71).
Rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 2.8% (n=72, Fair A/E 0.54). The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 4.2% strike, Fair A/E 0.69 and −53.50 to a £1 stake over 165 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. K R Burke supplied 34% of the rides and beats the rider's average (11.3% vs 6.1%, A/E 0.93). The rider also read well off a 0-7-day break (12.9%, n=31). The record read poorly on Good going — 1.7% over 59 rides, 4.4pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider over 1m2f – 1m4f: Fair A/E 0.32 across 52 rides (1.9% strike, −33.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Hilary Needler Trophy at Beverley (Jun 2005, £14,500). Seasonally, the rider fired Oct–Nov.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.1% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 1,059 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 1,059 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 4 January 2005 to 4 September 2010.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Darren Williams's strike rate?
- Darren Williams has won 25 of 413 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 6.1% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Darren Williams do best at?
- Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 6 wins from 65 rides (9.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Darren Williams ride most for?
- K R Burke, with 142 rides since 2008 — 34% of the total. That pairing has won 16 (11.3%).
- What is Darren Williams's Fair A/E?
- 0.71, from 411 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.