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Trainer profile

Paul Midgley

1,775 runners in the last 5 seasons · 121 individual horses
As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Non-runners: 5.8% of 326 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 20 Oct 2026.
Last runner yesterday 98% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2022
168–1,775
Wins / Runs
9.5%
Strike rate
n=1,775
481 (27%)
Placed
0.96
Fair A/E
n=1,764 · 0.81 incl. margin
−451.07
£1 level stake
n=1,775 at SP · −25.4%
£1.74m
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
8.9%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 360 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 10% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.96).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,775 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fires May–Jun 26.9% when favourite David Nolan: 10.5% from 411 Sends off the favourite in 9% of races
The read

The record is strongest at Nottingham (20.5%, n=83), clear of the yard's 9.5% baseline. It is weakest at York (1.2% over 81 runners) — the widest gap in the record. New recruits from other stables on their first run struggle at 0% (n=69, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 8.3% strike, Fair A/E 0.85 and −83.59 to a £1 stake over 204 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. David Nolan rides 23% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (10.5%, A/E 0.94). 4 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the William Hill Scottish Sprint Cup Handicap at Musselburgh (Jun 2017, £62,250). The stable star of the record: Silvanus (IRE) — 14 wins from 110 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires May–Jun.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
8.1%−1.4
n=235 · A/E 1.33 · £1 −17.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−9.5
n=69 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −69.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−9.5
n=21 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −21.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
11.1%+1.6
n=27 · A/E 1.46 · £1 +13.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
7.9%−1.6
n=63 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −20.50
When favourite
26.9%
n=156 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −13.91
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8.3%−1.2
n=204 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −83.59
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−9.5
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
At Nottingham 20.5% vs 9.5% · n=83
On last-time-out winners 18.5% vs 9.5% · n=168
With Jason Hart 20% vs 9.5% · n=60
With new recruits 0% vs 9.5% · n=69
At York 1.2% vs 9.5% · n=81
With Ben Robinson 0% vs 9.5% · n=35
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 1,745 167 9.6% −444.07
Hurdle 27 1 3.7% −4.00
NH Flat 3 0 0% −3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 521 45 8.6% −202.53
Standard (AW) 487 44 9% −77.17
Good to Firm 413 53 12.8% −41.00
Good to Soft 190 8 4.2% −116.75
Soft 129 15 11.6% −0.12
Heavy 35 3 8.6% −13.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Newcastle (AW) 330 37 11.2% −5.17
Thirsk 156 10 6.4% −45.00
Beverley 156 19 12.2% −19.45
Pontefract 145 15 10.3% −3.50
Ripon 130 15 11.5% −32.37
Southwell (AW) 116 5 4.3% −41.50
Doncaster 97 7 7.2% −45.75
Redcar 87 9 10.3% −9.12
Catterick 86 14 16.3% +4.03
Nottingham 83 17 20.5% +11.08
York 81 1 1.2% −55.00
Musselburgh 39 2 5.1% −29.25
Haydock 37 3 8.1% −22.25
Wolverhampton (AW) 36 1 2.8% −30.00
Carlisle 34 3 8.8% −20.25

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 603 60 10% −80.16
Class 6 539 57 10.6% −145.41
Class 4 428 43 10% −99.75
Class 3 125 6 4.8% −59.25
Class 2 74 2 2.7% −60.50
Class 1 5 0 0% −5.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 190 47 24.7% 1.02 −28.16
2nd–3rd fav 371 56 15.1% 0.97 −71.91
4th–6th fav 531 40 7.5% 0.88 −163.00
7th+ in betting 683 25 3.7% 0.97 −188.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Glory Fighter (GB)from Iain Jardine 56 6 16 31 Aug 26
Birkenhead (GB)from Les Eyre 56 7 24 9 May 26
Latin Five (IRE)from Joseph Patrick O'Brien 53 6 18 8 Apr 26
Elegant Erin (IRE)from Richard Hannon 47 9 17 19 Sep 26
Run This Way (GB)from Mark Johnston 46 6 12 16 Oct 26
Ventura Express (GB)from Richard Fahey 46 4 14 23 Sep 26
Mrs Trump (IRE)from Richard Fahey 41 5 12 22 Aug 26
Emperor Caradoc (FR)from Bryan Smart 40 5 15 12 Oct 26
Enderman (GB) 39 1 17 12 Jun 25
Strong Johnson (IRE)from Denis W Cullen 39 4 14 31 Jan 25
Leodis Dream (IRE)from Joseph Patrick O'Brien 38 4 10 27 Mar 25
Elzaal (IRE) 38 6 15 1 Jan 25
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 121 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 9 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 49 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Kevin Ryan (4) and Mark Johnston (3); 11 had their first archived run for this yard.

5 have since run for another yard; 55 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
1 from 11
Only 11 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
98561413810851116
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderDavid Nolan
23% of all rides
10.5% SR · A/E 0.94
RiderRWSR£1
David Nolan 411 43 10.5% −96.77
Graham Lee 308 33 10.7% −47.09
Mark Winn 149 17 11.4% −38.05
Cam Hardie 105 4 3.8% −44.00
Paul Mulrennan 99 9 9.1% −28.80
Ryan Sexton 79 10 12.7% −8.92
Barry McHugh 69 7 10.1% −3.50
Jason Hart 60 12 20% +40.50
Ben Robinson 35 0 0% −35.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
662
Archived wins
4
Pattern / graded wins
£6.08m
Prize money
2011
Best season · 51 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Line Of Reason (IRE) — William Hill Scottish Sprint Cup Handicap Musselburgh · Jun 2017 · Class 2
£62,250
Tanasoq (IRE) — Investec Corporate Banking 'dash' Handicap Epsom Downs · Jun 2018 · Class 2
£61,590
Desert Law (IRE) — Investec Corporate Banking 'Dash' (Heritage Handicap) Epsom Downs · Jun 2015 · Class 2
£61,590
Notable horses
Silvanus (IRE) Mr Orange (IRE) Tarboosh (GB) Line Of Reason (IRE) Highland Warrior (GB) Another Wise Kid (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Dandy Man (IRE) 12.4% · 31–249
Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,917 runs since 2008 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.
Kyllachy (GB) 9.2% · 6–65
Progeny have won 9.9% of 13,847 runs since 2008 (800 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 468.
Camacho (GB) 9.7% · 6–62
Progeny have won 8.1% of 9,319 runs since 2008 (596 horses).
Siyouni (FR) 9.7% · 6–62
Progeny have won 13% of 8,320 runs since 2008 (975 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 9.1% from 453.
Lethal Force (IRE) 6.8% · 4–59
Progeny have won 10.7% of 4,263 runs since 2008 (268 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 6.2% from 356.
Kodiac (GB) 10.3% · 6–58
Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,534 runs since 2008 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 252.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 7,599 · newest first

The latest 50 of 7,599 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 13 January 2005 to 19 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
19 Oct 26 Pontefract Rock Of England (IRE)J: Kevin Stott William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Heavy · 9 ran 2nd 10/1
16 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Emerald Harmony (IRE)J: David Nolan Northumbria Leisure For Jukeboxes Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Standard · 11 ran 1st 12/1
16 Oct 26 Haydock American Bay (GB)J: Tom Eaves Shape Engineering Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Heavy · 14 ran 13th 50/1
16 Oct 26 Haydock Vingegaard (IRE)J: Billy Loughnane Shape Engineering Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Heavy · 14 ran 11th 9/1
16 Oct 26 Redcar Run This Way (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good · 12 ran 6th 12/1
16 Oct 26 Redcar Mubehir (IRE)J: Paul Mulrennan Market Cross Jewellers Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good · 9 ran 9th 7/2
13 Oct 26 Leicester Cairdeas (GB)J: Ryan Sexton Join Racing TV Now Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good To Soft · 18 ran 11th 9/1
13 Oct 26 Leicester Tiriac (GB)J: Oisin McSweeney Join Racing TV Now Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good To Soft · 18 ran 6th 16/1
12 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Why Because (IRE)J: David Nolan Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 8/1
12 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Emperor Caradoc (FR)J: David Nolan Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 6th 5/1
10 Oct 26 York Advance Twentyfive (FR)J: David Nolan Sky Bet Price Boosts Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 4 · 10.5f · Good To Soft · 19 ran 17th 80/1
05 Oct 26 Pontefract Speeding Bullet (IRE)J: David Nolan Constant Security Services Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good · 12 ran 2nd 13/2
05 Oct 26 Pontefract Novello Lad (GB)J: David Nolan Leslie Burton (Fisher) Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 3 · 6f · Good · 10 ran 6th 16/1
05 Oct 26 Pontefract Almarada Prince (IRE)J: Paul Mulrennan Leslie Burton (Fisher) Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 3 · 6f · Good · 12 ran 1st 4/1J
05 Oct 26 Pontefract Fierce (IRE)J: Jason Hart Autism In Racing Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good · 12 ran 6th 7/1
03 Oct 26 Redcar Emperor Caradoc (FR)J: James Sullivan Watch Race Replays On Racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Good · 13 ran 1st 20/1
02 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Get Up Everybody (IRE)J: David Nolan Pipes Vs Wires Centenary Showdown Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 2nd 3/1F
02 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Why Because (IRE)J: Oisin McSweeney Armah Switchgear Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 8th 9/1
01 Oct 26 Nottingham Tiriac (GB)J: Oisin McSweeney Construction Day 14th Oct Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good · 15 ran 4th 14/1
01 Oct 26 Nottingham Cairdeas (GB)J: Kieran O'Neill Construction Day 14th Oct Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good · 15 ran 3rd 13/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul Midgley's strike rate?
Paul Midgley has won 168 of 1,775 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 9.5% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paul Midgley do best at?
Nottingham by strike rate: 17 wins from 83 runners (20.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Paul Midgley?
David Nolan, with 411 runners since 2022 — 23% of the total. That pairing has won 43 (10.5%).
Is Paul Midgley in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 11 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Paul Midgley's Fair A/E?
0.96, from 1,764 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 20 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).