What is Derek Shaw's strike rate?

Derek Shaw has won 62 of 932 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 6.7% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Derek Shaw do best at?

Chelmsford City (AW) by strike rate: 10 wins from 89 runners (11.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Derek Shaw?

Cam Hardie, with 221 runners since 2022 — 24% of the total. That pairing has won 17 (7.7%).

What is Derek Shaw's Fair A/E?

0.89, from 926 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Derek Shaw

932 runners in the last 5 seasons · 77 individual horses

As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 14 days ago 96% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

62–932

Wins / Runs

6.7%

Strike rate

n=932

210 (23%)

Placed

0.89

Fair A/E

n=926 · 0.77 incl. margin

−473.89

£1 level stake

n=932 at SP · −50.8%

£529k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

3.4%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 190 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 7% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.89).

Deterministic profile computed from 932 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance 38.2% when favourite Cam Hardie: 7.7% from 221 Sends off the favourite in 6% of races

The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 1.6% (n=122, Fair A/E 0.63). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 5.2% strike, Fair A/E 0.70 and −110.20 to a £1 stake over 153 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Cam Hardie rides 24% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (7.7%, A/E 1.01) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (17.4%, n=144). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 52 runners, 6.7pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Loyalty (GB) — 19 wins from 101 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.7% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

1.6%−5.1

n=122 · A/E 0.63 · £1 −101.50

New recruits · first run for the yard

3.2%−3.5

n=31 · A/E 1.15 · £1 −27.75

Debutants · first career start

0%−6.7

n=26 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −26.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

0%−6.7

n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

3.6%−3.1

n=28 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −22.50

When favourite

38.2%

n=55 · A/E 1.35 · £1 +13.11

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

5.2%−1.5

n=153 · A/E 0.70 · £1 −110.20

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Off a 0-7-day break 17.4% vs 6.7% · n=144

With a new jockey booking 1% vs 6.7% · n=313

With C&D winners 12.4% vs 6.7% · n=266

With Joanna Mason 12.2% vs 6.7% · n=148

Off a break of 180+ days 0% vs 6.7% · n=52

On last-time-out winners 12.7% vs 6.7% · n=63

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 891 61 6.8% −438.89

Hurdle 35 1 2.9% −29.00

NH Flat 4 0 0% −4.00

Chase 2 0 0% −2.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 792 59 7.4% −356.39

Good 62 2 3.2% −52.50

Soft 28 1 3.6% −15.00

Good to Soft 26 0 0% −26.00

Good to Firm 15 0 0% −15.00

Heavy 9 0 0% −9.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 326 29 8.9% −57.50

Southwell (AW) 293 16 5.5% −216.80

Chelmsford City (AW) 89 10 11.2% −19.80

Newcastle (AW) 48 1 2.1% −43.67

Kempton (AW) 34 3 8.8% −16.62

Leicester 19 2 10.5% −2.50

Doncaster 18 0 0% −18.00

Nottingham 13 0 0% −13.00

Yarmouth 12 0 0% −12.00

Uttoxeter 8 1 12.5% −2.00

Market Rasen 7 0 0% −7.00

Bath 7 0 0% −7.00

Beverley 7 0 0% −7.00

Worcester 6 0 0% −6.00

Catterick 5 0 0% −5.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 635 48 7.6% −244.92

Class 5 216 13 6% −153.97

Class 4 75 1 1.3% −69.00

Class 3 4 0 0% −4.00

Class 2 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 64 23 35.9% 1.31 +11.36

2nd–3rd fav 137 25 18.2% 1.10 −3.75

4th–6th fav 240 9 3.8% 0.50 −161.50

7th+ in betting 491 5 1% 0.45 −320.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Gustav Graves (GB)from Mark Loughnane 87 10 32 6 Apr 26

Trusty Scout (IRE)from David Pipe 55 2 19 17 Mar 26

Buraback (IRE)from Michael Appleby 42 7 14 24 Mar 26

Jumira Bridge (GB)from Robert Cowell 40 5 11 17 Feb 25

Prince Abu (IRE)then L J Morgan 36 3 10 18 Jul 24

Popular Dream (GB)from James Tate 32 5 11 6 Oct 26

Madame Fenella (GB) 31 2 10 4 Jul 25

The Tron (GB) 31 5 18 4 Mar 24

Kipp Kelly (GB) 28 1 8 24 Mar 26

Barney's Bay (GB)from Tim Easterby 27 0 2 2 Jun 26

Daafy (USA)from Ed Dunlop 27 4 12 27 Feb 24

Seaborough (IRE)from David Thompson 24 1 5 28 Sep 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 77 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 32 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from David C Griffiths (3) and Michael Appleby (2); 28 had their first archived run for this yard.

8 have since run for another yard, most often for Lawrence Mullaney (2); 52 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

117116102003646

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderCam Hardie

24% of all rides
7.7% SR · A/E 1.01

RiderRWSR£1

Cam Hardie 221 17 7.7% −118.80

Joanna Mason 148 18 12.2% +25.83

Lewis Edmunds 62 6 9.7% −27.17

Darragh Keenan 46 4 8.7% −10.50

Tom Eaves 35 2 5.7% +2.50

James Sullivan 34 0 0% −34.00

Morgan Cole 32 2 6.3% −26.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

483

Archived wins

£2.94m

Prize money

2007

Best season · 51 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Top Boy (GB) — BetBright Trophy (Handicap) York · May 2014 · Class 2

£31,125

Welliesinthewater (IRE) — totepool Supporting Mental Health Awareness Week Handicap Chelmsford City (AW) · May 2017 · Class 2

£19,407

Dynamo Walt (IRE) — Irish Lotto At Totesport.com Handicap Chelmsford City (AW) · Aug 2018 · Class 3

£16,173

Notable horses

Loyalty (GB) Dynamo Walt (IRE) Shawkantango (GB) Hammer Gun (USA) Gustav Graves (GB) Welliesinthewater (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Bobby's Kitten (USA) 9.7% · 10–103

Progeny have won 8% of 1,666 runs since 2008 (144 horses).

Gleneagles (IRE) 3.6% · 2–55

Progeny have won 11.4% of 4,551 runs since 2008 (444 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 17.2% from 279.

Due Diligence (USA) 4.2% · 2–48

Progeny have won 10.3% of 2,544 runs since 2008 (193 horses).

Buratino (IRE) 16.7% · 7–42

Progeny have won 7.5% of 1,878 runs since 2008 (118 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4.2% from 118.

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 12.5% · 5–40

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,816 runs since 2008 (1,573 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 843.

Dark Angel (IRE) 7.7% · 3–39

Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,876 runs since 2008 (1,594 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 6,541 · newest first

The latest 50 of 6,541 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 6 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

06 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Popular Dream (GB)J: Joanna Mason bettingsites.co.uk Racing Offers Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 11 ran 1st 11/8F

05 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Ezra Cee (IRE)J: Darragh Keenan Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 80/1

03 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Popular Dream (GB)J: Alex Jary Bettingsites.co.uk Find Your Bookmaker Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 10 ran 5th 12/1

26 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Popular Dream (GB)J: Alex Jary Gent's Night Sat 24th October Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 4th 22/1

24 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Al Suil Eile (FR)J: Jack Gilligan Weekend Winners On At The Races Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 13 ran 5th 22/1

24 Sep 26 Pontefract Bust A Moon (GB)J: Jack Dace ROA Shared Ownership Day Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good · 8 ran 7th 12/1

21 Sep 26 Leicester Ezra Cee (IRE)J: Lewis Edmunds Pattinson Auction Winning Bid Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good · 12 ran 11th 80/1

18 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Al Suil Eile (FR)J: Darragh Keenan Jjx Logistics Going The Distance Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 8 ran 4th 33/1

09 Sep 26 Carlisle Bust A Moon (GB)J: Lauren Young Deanta Fire Door Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good · 12 ran 4th 28/1

08 Sep 26 Leicester Ezra Cee (IRE)J: Jack Dace Dale Hall And Hickman Associates Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 11th 80/1

03 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Bust A Moon (GB)J: Darragh Keenan Bettingsites.co.uk Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 6 ran 4th 25/1

27 Aug 26 Southwell (AW) Al Suil Eile (FR)J: George Wood Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 6th 100/1

16 Aug 26 Southwell (AW) Cosmic Bond (GB)J: Faye McManoman Grace & Dotty Maiden Stakes (Div I) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 250/1

08 Aug 26 Redcar Bust A Moon (GB)J: Darragh Keenan Market Cross Jewellers Classified StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 5th 33/1

31 Jul 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Bust A Moon (GB)J: Jack Gilligan Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Classified StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 6 ran 3rd 50/1

23 Jul 26 Southwell (AW) Cosmic Bond (GB)J: Taryn Langley Download The At The Races App "Confined" Maiden Stakes (Which Have Run No More Than Three Times) (Div II) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 8th 300/1

21 Jul 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Blue Lancero (GB)J: Faye McManoman Call 01902 390016 To Name A Race Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 100/1

07 Jul 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Cosmic Bond (GB)J: Lewis Edmunds Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 6th 250/1

28 Jun 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Blue Lancero (GB)J: Lewis Edmunds Dapper Gee Gee Owners HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 5 ran 5th 66/1

02 Jun 26 Newcastle (AW) Barney's Bay (GB)J: Faye McManoman Penny On The Move HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 8 ran 5th 50/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Derek Shaw's strike rate?: Derek Shaw has won 62 of 932 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 6.7% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Derek Shaw do best at?: Chelmsford City (AW) by strike rate: 10 wins from 89 runners (11.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Derek Shaw?: Cam Hardie, with 221 runners since 2022 — 24% of the total. That pairing has won 17 (7.7%).
What is Derek Shaw's Fair A/E?: 0.89, from 926 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.