What is Alan Jarvis's strike rate?

Alan Jarvis has won 96 of 1,269 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.6% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Alan Jarvis do best at?

Goodwood by strike rate: 5 wins from 31 runners (16.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Alan Jarvis?

Michael J M Murphy, with 147 runners since 2008 — 12% of the total. That pairing has won 19 (12.9%).

What is Alan Jarvis's Fair A/E?

0.97, from 1,260 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Alan Jarvis

1,269 runners in the lifetime window · 169 individual horses

As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner May 2014 98% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

96–1,269

Wins / Runs

7.6%

Strike rate

n=1,269

264 (21%)

Placed

0.97

Fair A/E

n=1,260 · 0.84 incl. margin

−247.05

£1 level stake

n=1,269 at SP · −19.5%

£764k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

8.7%

KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 180 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 8% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.97). With a claiming rider up the record reads 10% (442 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,269 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 9.4% 25.8% when favourite Michael J M Murphy: 12.9% from 147 New recruits: 9.8% Claiming riders: 10.2% Sent off the favourite in 5% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Goodwood (16.1%, n=31) and Yarmouth (15.2%, n=33) — all clear of the yard's 7.6% baseline. Debutants struggle at 2.9% (n=104, Fair A/E 0.72). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 9.4% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.33 and +0.37 to a £1 stake over 203 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Michael J M Murphy rode 12% of the entries and beats the yard's average (12.9% vs 7.6%, A/E 1.26) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also read well on Soft going (13.6%, n=66). 4 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the totesport.com Victoria Cup at Ascot (May 2007, £52,972). The stable star of the record was Another Try (IRE) — 9 wins from 57 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.6% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

9.4%+1.8

n=203 · A/E 1.33 · £1 +0.37

New recruits · first run for the yard

9.8%+2.2

n=41 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −12.50

Debutants · first career start

2.9%−4.7

n=104 · A/E 0.72 · £1 +3.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

4.9%−2.7

n=41 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −4.50

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

8.7%+1.1

n=23 · A/E 1.52 · £1 +4.00

When favourite

25.8%

n=62 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −3.42

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

10.2%+2.6

n=442 · A/E 1.18 · £1 +37.33

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

3.6%−4.0

n=55 · A/E 0.66 · £1 −33.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 14.6% vs 7.6% · n=96

At Goodwood 16.1% vs 7.6% · n=31

With Harry Bentley 13.7% vs 7.6% · n=95

At Yarmouth 15.2% vs 7.6% · n=33

With Michael J M Murphy 12.9% vs 7.6% · n=147

On Soft going 13.6% vs 7.6% · n=66

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 1,242 93 7.5% −235.05

Hurdle 25 3 12% −10.00

Chase 1 0 0% −1.00

NH Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 428 24 5.6% −173.63

Good 324 26 8% −80.00

Good to Firm 309 23 7.4% −29.67

Good to Soft 105 13 12.4% +50.50

Soft 66 9 13.6% +7.75

Heavy 22 1 4.5% −7.00

Firm 15 0 0% −15.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton 280 15 5.4% −160.88

Newbury 87 5 5.7% −15.75

Ascot 71 2 2.8% −62.00

Lingfield (AW) 64 5 7.8% +39.00

York 58 6 10.3% +22.50

Haydock 57 5 8.8% −25.50

Windsor 47 4 8.5% +53.50

Doncaster 42 4 9.5% +27.00

Ayr 41 1 2.4% −34.00

Wolverhampton (AW) 39 1 2.6% −35.75

Epsom Downs 36 3 8.3% −8.25

Yarmouth 33 5 15.2% −4.00

Goodwood 31 5 16.1% +45.25

Sandown 28 0 0% −28.00

Lingfield 27 8 29.6% +33.33

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 444 33 7.4% −124.17

Class 4 297 28 9.4% +18.75

Class 6 288 22 7.6% −49.88

Class 3 98 5 5.1% −55.50

Class 2 84 6 7.1% +0.25

Class 1 56 2 3.6% −34.50

Class 7 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 73 18 24.7% 0.89 −7.42

2nd–3rd fav 205 32 15.6% 1.05 −20.13

4th–6th fav 411 28 6.8% 0.94 −44.50

7th+ in betting 580 18 3.1% 0.98 −175.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Another Try (IRE)then K R Burke 57 9 19 9 May 14

Bow To No One (IRE) 39 6 11 18 Dec 13

Right Step (GB)then Pat Phelan 39 3 10 17 Oct 13

Navajo Chief (GB)then Timothy Jarvis 37 7 11 15 May 14

Lady Gibraltar (GB)then Timothy Jarvis 32 4 12 15 May 14

Lady Sorcerer (GB) 29 1 5 16 May 10

Oetzi (GB)then Timothy Jarvis 23 3 5 21 May 14

Little Perisher (GB)then Karen George 22 3 4 24 Apr 10

Sweet Applause (IRE)then George Prodromou 21 0 3 16 Nov 09

Our Blessing (IRE) 20 1 5 16 May 09

Ellie In The Pink (IRE)then Pat Phelan 19 4 6 14 Sep 12

Serena's Pride (GB) 19 2 2 15 Dec 11

The 60 most-raced of 169 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 3 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Tim Easterby (3); 57 had their first archived run for this yard.

30 have since run for another yard, most often for Timothy Jarvis (8) and K R Burke (4); 30 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

041231085126933

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderMichael J M Murphy

12% of all rides
12.9% SR · A/E 1.26

RiderRWSR£1

Michael J M Murphy 147 19 12.9% +22.50

Harry Bentley 95 13 13.7% +75.00

Matthew Davies 87 5 5.7% −23.67

Kieren Fallon 86 5 5.8% −51.75

Jim Crowley 82 9 11% +23.25

Andrew Elliott 76 3 3.9% −55.25

Martin Lane 75 6 8% −28.75

Darren Williams 68 2 2.9% −51.00

Neil Callan 45 3 6.7% −27.50

Richard Mullen 37 3 8.1% +6.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

151

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.26m

Prize money

2012

Best season · 21 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Wise Dennis (GB) — totesport.com Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap) Ascot · May 2007 · Class 2

£52,972

Navajo Chief (GB) — Addleshaw Goddard Stakes (Handicap) York · Aug 2011 · Class 2

£28,464

Mixed Blessing (GB) — Princess Margaret Stakes (Grp 3 Fillies) Newbury · Jul 2005 · Group 3

£26,100

Notable horses

Another Try (IRE) Navajo Chief (GB) Spring Goddess (IRE) Bow To No One (IRE) Effective (GB) Lady Gibraltar (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Spinning World (USA) 12.7% · 9–71

Progeny have won 10.3% of 914 runs since 2008 (61 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13.3% from 181. Weakest on Good going: 5.4% from 202.

Refuse To Bend (IRE) 10.7% · 6–56

Progeny have won 9.8% of 4,868 runs since 2008 (320 horses).

King's Best (USA) 14.5% · 8–55

Progeny have won 9.9% of 7,763 runs since 2008 (574 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.8% from 249.

Acclamation (GB) 0% · 0–40

Progeny have won 10% of 19,672 runs since 2008 (1,326 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 193.

Bahamian Bounty (GB) 7.5% · 3–40

Progeny have won 9.6% of 9,353 runs since 2008 (598 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 1% from 202.

Xaar (GB) 7.7% · 3–39

Progeny have won 6.1% of 2,429 runs since 2008 (218 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 10.7% from 122.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,990 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,990 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 12 January 2005 to 22 May 2014.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

22 May 14 Goodwood Albonny (IRE)J: Luke Morris Weatherbys Sports Publishing HandicapClass 4 · 16f · Soft · 13 ran 6th 14/1

22 May 14 Goodwood Top of The Glas (IRE)J: Dane O'Neill Wright Joinery Company HandicapClass 4 · 9f · Soft · 10 ran 8th 25/1

21 May 14 Kempton (AW) Oetzi (GB)J: Jack Duern Betdaq 25 No Lose Free Bet Apprentice HandicapClass 5 · 11f · Standard · 10 ran UR 10/1

21 May 14 Kempton (AW) Substantivo (IRE)J: Kieren Fallon Visit And Dine In The Panoramic HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 3rd 7/1

17 May 14 Thirsk Prince Regal (GB)J: Ben Curtis Happy Birthday Mike Wood HandicapClass 4 · 5f · Good · 15 ran 7th 6/1

16 May 14 York Lady Lara (IRE)J: Kieren Fallon Irish Champions Weekend Fillies' Stakes (Registered As The Michael Seely Memorial Stakes) (Listed)Class 1 · 8f · Good · 14 ran 3rd 4/1F

15 May 14 York Navajo Chief (GB)J: Kieren Fallon Betfred Hambleton Handicap (Listed)Class 1 · 8f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 1st 15/2

15 May 14 York Lady Gibraltar (GB)J: Ioritz Mendizabal Betfred Supports Jack Berry House HandicapClass 2 · 5f · Good To Soft · 19 ran 6th 33/1

14 May 14 York Rogue Wave (IRE)J: Graham Lee Conundrum HR Consulting HandicapClass 3 · 7f · Good To Soft · 18 ran 15th 33/1

12 May 14 Doncaster Silver Duke (IRE)J: Daniel Tudhope Betdaq No Premium Charge Maiden Stakes (Str)Class 5 · 8f · Heavy · 10 ran 6th 10/1

12 May 14 Doncaster I Am Not Here (IRE)J: Graham Lee Betdaq No Premium Charge Maiden Stakes (Str)Class 5 · 8f · Heavy · 10 ran 5th 40/1

12 May 14 Doncaster Martinas Delight (USA)J: Daniel Tudhope Betdaq The Sports Betting Exchange Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Soft · 11 ran 1st 14/1

10 May 14 Ascot Prince Regal (GB)J: Daniel Tudhope Espirito Santo Investment Bank HandicapClass 4 · 6f · Good To Soft · 18 ran 16th 7/1

09 May 14 Ascot Intense Tango (GB)J: Kieren Fallon On 5 Maiden Fillies' StakesClass 4 · 10f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 6th 33/1

09 May 14 Ascot Albonny (IRE)J: Luke Morris Centerplate HandicapClass 3 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 4th 33/1

09 May 14 Lingfield (AW) Diamond Solitaire (IRE)J: Kieren Fallon Ladbrokes Maiden Fillies' Stakes (BOBIS Race)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 16/1

09 May 14 Lingfield Another Try (IRE)J: Miss Serena Brotherton Ladbrokes Handicap (Lady Amateur Riders)Class 5 · 7f · Good · 8 ran 1st 5/2F

06 May 14 Brighton Baars Causeway (IRE)J: Kieren Fallon Brighton Thistle Hotel HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 8/1

06 May 14 Brighton Spring Lady (GB)J: Martin Dwyer Winner Plant Hire Classified StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good · 7 ran 7th 7/2

04 May 14 Newmarket Lady Lara (IRE)J: Kieren Fallon Qipco 1000 Guineas Stakes (201st Running) (British Champions Series) (Fillies' Group 1)Class 1 · 8f · Good To Firm · 17 ran 13th 40/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Alan Jarvis's strike rate?: Alan Jarvis has won 96 of 1,269 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.6% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Alan Jarvis do best at?: Goodwood by strike rate: 5 wins from 31 runners (16.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Alan Jarvis?: Michael J M Murphy, with 147 runners since 2008 — 12% of the total. That pairing has won 19 (12.9%).
What is Alan Jarvis's Fair A/E?: 0.97, from 1,260 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.