Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Rider Profile
Rides around 10 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.66).
Deterministic profile computed from 170 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 13 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceFresh horses: 3.3%Richard Guest: 3.6% from 55Claiming: 3.2%
The read
The market has consistently overbetclaiming rides: 3.2% strike, Fair A/E 0.72 and −111.75 to a £1 stake over 157 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Richard Guest supplies 32% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (3.6%, A/E 0.71). The rider also reads well on Good to Soft going (7.7%, n=39). The market has consistently overbet the rider over 1m5f – 2m: Fair A/E 0.00 across 63 rides (0% strike, −63.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 2.9% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
2.7%−0.2
n=73 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −52.50
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−2.9
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
3.3%+0.4
n=30 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −15.00
When favourite
100%
n=1 · A/E 6.70 · £1 +4.50
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
3.2%+0.3
n=157 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −111.75
Big fields · 14+ runners
1.6%−1.3
n=62 · A/E 0.48 · £1 −56.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−2.9
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On Good to Soft going7.7% vs 2.9% · n=39
Over 1m5f – 2m0% vs 2.9% · n=63
With horses switching code0% vs 2.9% · n=40
On Soft going0% vs 2.9% · n=35
Over 2m5f – 3m5.4% vs 2.9% · n=37
Off a 15-30-day break4.9% vs 2.9% · n=41
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle8622.3%−64.50
Chase6934.3%−45.25
NH Flat1500%−15.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good6323.2%−53.25
Good to Soft3937.7%−3.50
Soft3500%−35.00
Good to Firm1700%−17.00
Heavy1500%−15.00
Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Southwell1800%−18.00
Market Rasen1500%−15.00
Sedgefield1400%−14.00
Uttoxeter1400%−14.00
Wetherby12216.7%+9.50
Cartmel9111.1%+6.00
Leicester800%−8.00
Catterick800%−8.00
Bangor-on-Dee600%−6.00
Fakenham600%−6.00
Towcester600%−6.00
Newcastle500%−5.00
Fontwell500%−5.00
Doncaster500%−5.00
Perth500%−5.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 47322.7%−51.50
Class 55311.9%−47.50
Class 32328.7%−4.75
Class 61000%−10.00
Class 2400%−4.00
Class 1100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite2150%3.68+3.50
2nd–3rd fav11218.2%1.29−1.25
4th–6th fav3900%0.00−39.00
7th+ in betting11821.7%0.70−88.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f6423.1%−54.25
1m5f – 2m6300%−63.00
2m5f – 3m3725.4%−16.50
Over 3m6116.7%+9.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
200814253.5%−96.75
20092200%−22.00
2023100%−1.00
2024300%−3.00
2025200%−2.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps10443.8%−62.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners5500%−55.00
14-16 runners5012%−44.50
8-10 runners3326.1%−3.00
5-7 runners1915.3%−12.50
17+ runners1200%−12.00
2-4 runners11100%+2.25
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 90 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
By month
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0001787060070
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
19
Archived wins
£177k
Prize money
2007
Best season · 9 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Orpen Wide (IRE) — Ritz Club Novices' Chase Ascot · Apr 2008 · Class 3
Progeny have won 11% of 20,053 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.
Slip Anchor (GB)8.3% · 1–12
Progeny have won 8.1% of 420 runs since 2008 (38 horses).
Zaffaran (USA)0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 8.6% of 1,087 runs since 2008 (140 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.4% from 209. Weakest on Good to Soft going: 4% from 174. Weakest beyond 3m (all codes): 5.2% from 155.
Kayf Tara (GB)0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,769 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.
Indian Ridge (IRE)0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 8.7% of 2,484 runs since 2008 (142 horses).
Insan (USA)20% · 1–5
Progeny have won 11.3% of 362 runs since 2008 (45 horses). Strongest on Good going: 14.3% from 126.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 13 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 494 · newest first
The latest 50 of 494 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 26 December 2005 to 6 June 2025.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is David Cullinane's strike rate?
David Cullinane has won 5 of 170 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 2.9% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which yard does David Cullinane ride most for?
Richard Guest, with 55 rides since 2008 — 32% of the total. That pairing has won 2 (3.6%).
What is David Cullinane's Fair A/E?
0.66, from 170 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
David Cullinane·SR 2.9%·A/E 0.66
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