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Trainer profile

Graham Smith

214 runners in the lifetime window · 43 individual horses
As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Nov 2010
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
10–214
Wins / Runs
4.7%
Strike rate
n=214
33 (15%)
Placed
0.88
Fair A/E
n=213 · 0.74 incl. margin
−124.17
£1 level stake
n=214 at SP · −58.0%
£39,407
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 70 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.88).

Deterministic profile computed from 214 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Jodie Mogford: 7.1% from 56 Claiming riders: 6.1%
The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 0% (n=31, Fair A/E 0.00). Jodie Mogford rode 26% of the entries and edges the yard's average (7.1% vs 4.7%, A/E 1.37) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also read well over 1m2f – 1m4f (12.5%, n=32). The record read poorly off a 31-60-day break — 0% over 39 runners, 4.7pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record was Novestar (IRE) — 5 wins from 22 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−4.7
n=31 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −31.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.7
n=31 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −31.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.7
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.7
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.7
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=3 · A/E 1.45 · £1 +1.33
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
6.1%+1.4
n=98 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −49.67

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With Kevin Ghunowa 14.7% vs 4.7% · n=34
Over 1m2f – 1m4f 12.5% vs 4.7% · n=32
With a new jockey booking 0% vs 4.7% · n=114
Off a 31-60-day break 0% vs 4.7% · n=39
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 0% vs 4.7% · n=33
With new recruits 0% vs 4.7% · n=31
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 103 6 5.8% −54.67
Hurdle 77 1 1.3% −71.50
Chase 29 3 10.3% +7.00
NH Flat 5 0 0% −5.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 81 5 6.2% −37.00
Good 51 3 5.9% −20.17
Good to Firm 29 1 3.4% −24.00
Good to Soft 27 0 0% −27.00
Heavy 14 0 0% −14.00
Soft 12 1 8.3% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Southwell (AW) 34 2 5.9% −11.50
Wolverhampton (AW) 31 2 6.5% −14.50
Uttoxeter 22 0 0% −22.00
Southwell 17 3 17.6% −2.17
Leicester 15 0 0% −15.00
Chelmsford (AW) 9 1 11.1% −4.00
Towcester 9 0 0% −9.00
Market Rasen 7 0 0% −7.00
Sedgefield 7 1 14.3% +3.00
Stratford 5 0 0% −5.00
Bangor-on-Dee 5 0 0% −5.00
Huntingdon 5 0 0% −5.00
Worcester 5 1 20% +16.00
Lingfield (AW) 4 0 0% −4.00
Ludlow 4 0 0% −4.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 82 5 6.1% −24.50
Class 6 80 4 5% −57.67
Class 4 38 1 2.6% −28.00
Class 3 6 0 0% −6.00
Class 7 5 0 0% −5.00
Class 2 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 4 2 50% 2.39 +5.33
2nd–3rd fav 25 3 12% 0.75 −9.00
4th–6th fav 52 4 7.7% 1.28 −8.50
7th+ in betting 133 1 0.8% 0.29 −112.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Tapas Lad (IRE)from V Smith 21 1 4 25 May 09
Novestar (IRE)from Gary Moore · then Michael Appleby 20 5 10 2 Oct 10
Ground Breaker (GB)from Michael Easterby 14 2 3 13 Apr 09
Imperial Djay (IRE)from Declan Carroll · then John Holt 12 0 2 30 Mar 09
Fisherman Jack (GB) 12 1 5 29 Jan 09
Blue Savannah (FR)from Dominic Ffrench Davis 11 0 0 23 Mar 10
Glan Lady (IRE)from John Spearing · then John Mackie 10 0 0 16 May 10
Ricci de Mare (GB)from Andrew Haynes 10 0 0 5 Apr 09
Nayodabayo (IRE)from Nigel Twiston-Davies 9 0 2 16 Aug 09
Veronicas Way (GB)from George Moore 7 0 0 13 Feb 09
Desperate Dex (IRE)then Ferdy Murphy 6 0 0 21 Apr 08
Middleton Red (IRE) 5 0 0 20 Oct 10
All 43 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 43 horses listed, 36 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Michael Appleby (4) and Gary Moore (2); 7 had their first archived run for this yard.

15 have since run for another yard, most often for Michael Appleby (6) and John Mackie (3); 28 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
05445336120000
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderJodie Mogford
26% of all rides
7.1% SR · A/E 1.37
RiderRWSR£1
Jodie Mogford 56 4 7.1% −14.50
Kevin Ghunowa 34 5 14.7% +8.83
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
17
Archived wins
£78,685
Prize money
2008
Best season · 10 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Ground Breaker (GB) — John & Mavis Martin 30th Wedding Anniversary Handicap Chase Huntingdon · Dec 2006 · Class 4
£4,554
Fisherman Jack (GB) — Tommy's Darts Beginners' Chase Bangor-on-Dee · Mar 2006 · Class 4
£4,132
Fisherman Jack (GB) — G L Hearn Property Consultants Handicap Chase Sedgefield · Jun 2008 · Class 4
£3,802
Notable horses
Novestar (IRE) Fisherman Jack (GB) Ground Breaker (GB) Red Nose Lady (GB) Tapas Lad (IRE) Desperate Dex (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Modigliani (USA) 4.8% · 1–21
Progeny have won 7.6% of 607 runs since 2008 (52 horses).
Noverre (USA) 25% · 5–20
Progeny have won 10.7% of 3,831 runs since 2008 (235 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13.7% from 803. Weakest on Soft going: 6.9% from 407.
Emperor Jones (USA) 14.3% · 2–14
Progeny have won 6.4% of 140 runs since 2008 (17 horses).
Carlingford Castle (IRE) 8.3% · 1–12
Progeny have won 3.6% of 28 runs since 2008 (6 horses). A small sample.
Dilshaan (GB) 0% · 0–12
Progeny have won 9.9% of 756 runs since 2008 (52 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13.5% from 104. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 13.3% from 105. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.3% from 144.
Anabaa (USA) 0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 11% of 2,519 runs since 2008 (256 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14.8% from 243. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.3% from 255.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 362 · newest first

The latest 50 of 362 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 21 November 2010.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
21 Nov 10 Towcester Wardington Lad (GB)J: Kyle James Blizzard Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 21f · Soft · 17 ran PU 28/1
20 Nov 10 Huntingdon September Moon (GB)J: Kyle James Bet Totepool To Support Your Sport Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 25f · Good To Soft · 12 ran PU 28/1
03 Nov 10 Warwick September Moon (GB)J: Kyle James Mrs B Is Always Right Conditional Jockeys' Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 26f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 16/1
20 Oct 10 Worcester Middleton Red (IRE)J: Jodie Mogford ws-promotions.co.uk Tribute Bands Maiden HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Good · 13 ran PU 100/1
18 Oct 10 Plumpton September Moon (GB)J: Rodi Greene Simon Gibson Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 25.5f · Good To Firm · 6 ran UR 25/1
10 Oct 10 Ffos Las Brave Bugsy (IRE)J: Gemma Gracey-Davison Lindley Catering Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 24f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 3rd 5/1
03 Oct 10 Uttoxeter Middleton Red (IRE)J: Charlie Wallis musicmagpie.co.uk Conditional Jockeys' 'National Hunt' Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 21.5f · Heavy · 8 ran PU 66/1
02 Oct 10 Wolverhampton (AW) Novestar (IRE)J: Kevin Ghunowa Cleanevent HandicapClass 5 · 12f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 50/1
19 Sep 10 Uttoxeter Midnight Fun (GB)J: Rodi Greene Hoar Cross Hall Gym Team Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 24f · Good · 15 ran 10th 22/1
08 Sep 10 Uttoxeter Middleton Red (IRE)J: Jodie Mogford Peter & Linda Douglas Wedding Anniversary Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Good · 13 ran 7th 100/1
30 May 10 Uttoxeter Along The Nile (GB)J: Alex Merriam Douglas Family Conditional Jockeys' Selling HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 6th 5/2
16 May 10 Stratford Glan Lady (IRE)J: Alex Merriam Meon Hill Mares' Novices' Selling HurdleClass 5 · 16.5f · Good · 14 ran 8th 100/1
28 Apr 10 Southwell Middleton Red (IRE)J: Jodie Mogford 4th September GB Endurance Ride At Southwell Maiden Open NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 15.5f · Good · 14 ran 12th 150/1
28 Apr 10 Southwell Glan Lady (IRE)J: Jodie Mogford Golf And Racing At Southwell Racecourse Mares' Selling HurdleClass 5 · 15.5f · Good · 6 ran 4th 80/1
26 Apr 10 Wolverhampton (AW) Michael Collins (IRE)J: Kevin Ghunowa Wolverhampton Hospitality - A Pleasure Claiming StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 7 ran 7th 200/1
06 Apr 10 Southwell (AW) Michael Collins (IRE)J: Frankie McDonald Play Poker At ladbrokes.com Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 10th 100/1
23 Mar 10 Southwell Blue Savannah (FR)J: Joe Cornwall Watch Live Football At Ladbrokes.com Claiming HurdleClass 5 · 20.5f · Good · 11 ran PU 66/1
20 Mar 10 Uttoxeter Leo The Brave (GB)J: Joe Cornwall Bet Totepool On totesport.com Standard Open NH Flat Race (Div 2)Class 6 · 16f · Soft · 10 ran 9th 33/1
14 Mar 10 Market Rasen Moderano (CZE)J: Jan Faltejsek Blue Square's New iPhone App Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 18.5f · Good · 11 ran 10th 33/1
02 Jan 10 Southwell (AW) Michael Collins (IRE)J: Kevin Ghunowa Bet FA Cup - Betdaq Claiming StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 9 ran 9th 100/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Graham Smith's strike rate?
Graham Smith has won 10 of 214 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.7% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Graham Smith do best at?
Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 2 wins from 31 runners (6.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Graham Smith?
Jodie Mogford, with 56 runners since 2008 — 26% of the total. That pairing has won 4 (7.1%).
What is Graham Smith's Fair A/E?
0.88, from 213 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 15 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).