Davy Bonilla
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 130 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 14% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.18).
Rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 7.6% (n=445, Fair A/E 1.20). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 13.4% strikes only just below baseline, but Fair A/E 1.47 and +80.70 to a £1 stake over 299 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The market has consistently overbet rides on last-time-out winners: 15.1% strike, Fair A/E 0.83 and −31.62 to a £1 stake over 172 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. F Head supplied 26% of the rides and beats the rider's average (20.9% vs 14.3%, A/E 1.16) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also read well off a break of 180+ days (19.6%, n=107) and on Heavy going (18.6%, n=140). The market has also underrated the rider off a 31-60-day break: Fair A/E 1.30 across 231 rides (18.2% strike, +88.48 to a £1 stake). The record read poorly off a 61-180-day break — 9.9% over 192 rides, 4.4pts below the baseline. 62 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Prix du Haras de Fresnay-le-Buffard - Jacques le Marois at Deauville (FR) (Aug 2008, £252,088). The standout partner of the record was Marchand D'Or (FR) — 11 wins from 34 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fired Mar–Apr.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 14.3% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 14.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 1,610 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 1,610 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 10 March 2005 to 20 April 2016.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Davy Bonilla's strike rate?
- Davy Bonilla has won 165 of 1,156 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 14.3% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Davy Bonilla do best at?
- Chantilly (FR) by strike rate: 18 wins from 111 rides (16.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Davy Bonilla ride most for?
- F Head, with 301 rides since 2008 — 26% of the total. That pairing has won 63 (20.9%).
- What is Davy Bonilla's Fair A/E?
- 1.18, from 835 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.