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Jockey profile

Hugo Lucas

105 rides in the lifetime window · 74 individual horses
As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride May 2021 98% of rides over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2012→)
No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
4–105
Wins / Runs
3.8%
Strike rate
n=105
21 (20%)
Placed
0.55
Fair A/E
n=93 · 0.55 incl. margin
−77.70
£1 level stake
n=98 at SP · −79.3%
£231k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 10 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 4% of them. The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 8% off breaks of two months or more (49 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 105 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 8.2% First rides: 4.1%
The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a positive signal at 8.2% (n=49, Fair A/E 1.27), but claiming rides have been a poor signal at 0% (n=32, Fair A/E 0.00). The rider also read well on Heavy going (8.3%, n=36) and in Chase races (7%, n=57). The record read poorly on Soft going — 0% over 61 rides, 3.8pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 3.8% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
4.1%+0.3
n=74 · A/E 0.66 · £1 −57.20
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−3.8
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
8.2%+4.4
n=49 · A/E 1.27 · £1 −24.70
When favourite
100%
n=2 · A/E 4.34 · £1 +3.60
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
0%−3.8
n=32 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −32.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
3.3%−0.5
n=30 · A/E 0.76 · £1 −25.40
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−3.8
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On Heavy going 8.3% vs 3.8% · n=36
On Soft going 0% vs 3.8% · n=61
In Hurdle races 0% vs 3.8% · n=46
With E Leray 0% vs 3.8% · n=44
When claiming 0% vs 3.8% · n=32
In Chase races 7% vs 3.8% · n=57
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Chase 57 4 7% −33.70
Hurdle 46 0 0% −44.00
Flat 2 0 0% —

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 61 0 0% −60.00
Heavy 36 3 8.3% −16.70
Good 3 0 0% −1.00
Good to Soft 2 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Auteuil (FR) 54 1 1.9% −43.50
Enghien (FR) 16 0 0% −16.00
Compiegne (FR) 11 1 9.1% −5.80
Le Lion-D'Angers (FR) 7 1 14.3% −3.40
Pau 3 0 0% −3.00
Machecoul 2 0 0% —
Angers (FR) 2 0 0% −2.00
Meslay-Du-Maine 1 0 0% −1.00
Le Pin au Haras 1 0 0% —
Moulins 1 0 0% −1.00
Granville-St Pair Sur Mer (FR) 1 0 0% —
Angouleme 1 0 0% —
Clairefontaine 1 0 0% −1.00
Craon (FR) 1 0 0% −1.00
Segre 1 1 100% +1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 6 0 0% −6.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 3 2 66.7% 2.10 +2.60
2nd–3rd fav 14 1 7.1% 0.57 −8.80
4th–6th fav 28 1 3.6% 0.49 −18.50
7th+ in betting 53 0 0% 0.00 −53.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
68.9% completed · 103 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 57 68.4% 6 0 11 0 1
Hurdle 46 69.6% 5 0 9 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Radiologue (FR) 4 1 2 14 Oct 18
Debut De Printemps (FR) 4 0 1 23 May 18
Casino Des Bois (FR) 4 1 1 18 Apr 18
Urika (FR) 4 0 1 16 Apr 14
Anik De Maspie (FR) 4 0 3 3 Oct 13
Asdesmar (FR) 3 0 0 25 Nov 15
Silane (FR) 3 0 1 12 Sep 13
Kamiro D'Or (FR) 3 0 0 20 Mar 13
Rocktaline (FR) 2 0 0 25 Apr 19
Bomari (FR) 2 0 0 20 Oct 18
Rosabi (FR) 2 0 0 2 Oct 18
Calinzana (FR) 2 0 0 22 Apr 18
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 74 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
00140011000000
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardE Leray
42% of all rides
0% SR · A/E 0.00
TrainerRWSR£1
E Leray 44 0 0% −41.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2012→
4
Archived wins
£231k
Prize money
2018
Best season · 2 wins
Radiologue (FR) — Prix Beaute de Cour (Chase) (Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf) Compiegne (FR) · Mar 2018
£22,301
Casino Des Bois (FR) — Prix Fernand Roy (Chase) (AQPS Conditions) (6yo+) (Turf) Auteuil (FR) · Mar 2018
£21,239
Friendly Star (FR) — Prix Paul Cochard (Cross Country Chase) (Conditions) (5-6yo) (Turf) Le Lion-D'Angers (FR) · Jun 2020
£8,705
Notable horses
Radiologue (FR) Casino Des Bois (FR) Friendly Star (FR) Kings Cross (FR)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Nidor (FR) 8.3% · 1–12
Progeny have won 11.7% of 317 runs since 2011 (49 horses).
Irish Wells (FR) 0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 9.3% of 886 runs since 2011 (124 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 12.3% from 122. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 5.6% from 108.
Agnes Kamikaze (JPN) 0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 4% of 325 runs since 2008 (30 horses).
Doctor Dino (FR) 25% · 1–4
Progeny have won 16% of 3,224 runs since 2013 (497 horses). Strongest on Good going: 19.8% from 562. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.5% from 211. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 19.7% from 694. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 8.7% from 138.
Dom Alco (FR) 0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 17.1% of 1,831 runs since 2008 (159 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 21.5% from 326. Weakest on Good going: 14.1% from 389.
Khalkevi (IRE) 0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 14.7% of 1,005 runs since 2008 (135 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 17.9% from 190.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 105 · newest first

The latest 50 of 105 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 26 February 2012 to 29 May 2021.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
29 May 21 Auteuil (FR) Imperil (FR)T: Nick Littmoden Prix Aristote (Chase) (Conditions) (5yo) (Turf)22f · Very Soft · 9 ran 3rd 26/1
12 Apr 21 Compiegne (FR) Great Qash (FR)T: D Cottin Prix Jacques de Vienne (Cross Country Chase) (Conditions) (5yo+) (Turf)23.5f · Heavy · 11 ran F 17/1
29 Nov 20 Angers (FR) Fripon De Ballon (FR)T: D Retif Prix Region des Pays de la Loire (Hurdle) (Conditions) (5yo+) (Turf)20.5f · Very Soft · 10 ran PU 20/1
07 Sep 20 Craon (FR) Benevolat (FR)T: L Maceli Prix Groupama (Chase) (Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf)18.5f · Soft · 12 ran PU 15/1
23 Aug 20 Granville-St Pair Sur Mer (FR) Muratello (FR)T: P Journiac Prix Credit Agricole (Chase) (Conditions) (5yo+) (Turf)21.5f · Good · 10 ran 2nd —
25 Jun 20 Dieppe (FR) Flag Star (FR)T: N Devilder Prix Saint des Saints (Chase) (Conditions) (5yo) (Turf)19.5f · Soft · 10 ran 4th 9/1
15 Jun 20 Le Lion-D'Angers (FR) Galaxie Surf (FR)T: D Bernier Prix Dominique de Broglie (Hurdle) (Conditions) (4yo) (Turf)18.5f · Very Soft · 14 ran 4th 140/1
15 Jun 20 Le Lion-D'Angers (FR) Friendly Star (FR)T: D Cottin Prix Paul Cochard (Cross Country Chase) (Conditions) (5-6yo) (Turf)22.5f · Heavy · 14 ran 1st 13/5F
15 Jun 20 Le Lion-D'Angers (FR) Charmyra (FR)T: D Bernier France Sire Prix Anjou-Loire Challenge (Cross Country Chase) () (6yo+) (Turf)29f · Heavy · 14 ran PU 84/1
15 Jun 20 Le Lion-D'Angers (FR) First De Loust (FR)T: N Devilder Prix Charles de Noblet (Chase) (Conditions) (5yo) (Turf)20f · Heavy · 10 ran 4th 32/1
14 May 20 Angers (FR) Pegasus Bey (FR)T: D Bernier Prix Parcs des Expositions d'Angers (Hurdle) (Conditions) (4yo) (Turf)19f · Very Soft · 16 ran 14th 59/1
14 Mar 20 Auteuil (FR) Douceurf (FR)T: D Bernier Prix Lilium (Hurdle) (Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf)19.5f · Heavy · 16 ran 8th 16/1
14 Mar 20 Auteuil (FR) Reinardo (FR)T: Edouard Thueux Prix Rush (Hurdle) (Conditions) (3yo Colts & Geldings unraced over obstacles) (Turf)15f · Heavy · 15 ran PU 128/1
11 Sep 19 Auteuil (FR) Fatines (FR)T: E & G Leenders Prix Alain et Gilles de Goulaine (Hurdle) (Listed Handicap) (4yo) (Turf)18f · Very Soft · 15 ran F 57/1
18 Aug 19 La Roche-Posay (FR) Princesse Meturie (FR)T: F Hayeres Prix du Futuroscope (Chase) (Claimer) (5yo+) (Turf)21f · Soft · 7 ran F —
14 Aug 19 Le Lion-D'Angers (FR) Balto De La Touche (FR)T: N Paysan Prix Piano de la Juiverie (Chase) (Conditions) (5yo+) (Turf)22.5f · Very Soft · 7 ran 5th 13/1
25 Apr 19 Compiegne (FR) Rocktaline (FR)T: N Paysan Prix du Grand Marechal (Chase) (Conditions) (5yo+ Mares) (Turf)19.5f · Very Soft · 8 ran 6th 24/1
06 Apr 19 Auteuil (FR) Rocktaline (FR)T: N Paysan Prix Alec Carter (Chase) (Conditions) (5yo) (Turf)17.5f · Very Soft · 7 ran 5th 30/1
09 Nov 18 Compiegne (FR) Deauseille (FR)T: E & G Leenders Prix Elisa (Chase) (AQPS Conditions) (4-5yo Fillies & Mares) (Turf)19.5f · Very Soft · 11 ran F 52/1
20 Oct 18 Auteuil (FR) Bomari (FR)T: N Paysan Prix Montgomery (Chase) Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf)23.5f · Very Soft · 13 ran PU 93/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Hugo Lucas's strike rate?
Hugo Lucas has won 4 of 105 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 3.8% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Hugo Lucas do best at?
Auteuil (FR) by strike rate: 1 wins from 54 rides (1.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Hugo Lucas's Fair A/E?
0.55, from 93 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 6 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).