No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Small sample — fewer than 30 runs in this window. Read the Ns before the percentages.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 18.8% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
9.1%−9.7
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
28.6%+9.8
n=7 · A/E 2.00 · £1 +1.10
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
16.7%−2.1
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
18.2%−0.6
n=11 · A/E 1.49 · £1 −3.90
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 18.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft6350%+1.10
Good to Soft400%−3.00
Standard (AW)300%—
Good200%−1.00
Heavy100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Deauville (FR)600%−3.00
Longchamp (FR)400%−2.00
Saint-Cloud (FR)2150%+1.10
Chantilly (FR)11100%—
Maisons-Laffitte (FR)11100%—
Cagnes-Sur-Mer (FR)100%—
Le Croise-Laroche (FR)100%—
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 111218.2%−3.90
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite100%0.00−1.00
2nd–3rd fav11100%3.64+2.10
4th–6th fav200%0.00−2.00
7th+ in betting300%0.00−3.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f5120%+0.10
6f – 7f4250%—
1m5f – 2m300%−2.00
1m – 1m1f300%−1.00
Under 6f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
200815320%−3.90
2013100%—
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps3133.3%—
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners7114.3%−3.00
8-10 runners4125%+0.10
2-4 runners3133.3%—
5-7 runners200%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 13 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Fair Breeze (GER) — Prix Corrida (Fillies & Mares) Saint-Cloud (FR) · May 2008 · Group 2
£54,485
Atalia (GER) — Prix de Saint-Cyr () (Fillies) Chantilly (FR) · Oct 2008 · Listed
£20,221
Fair Breeze (GER) — Prix Solitude () (Fillies) Fontainebleau (FR) · Nov 2006 · Listed
Progeny have won 10.3% of 995 runs since 2008 (76 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 15.4% from 123. Weakest on Soft going: 4.3% from 188. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.9% from 160.
Acatenango (GER)0% · 0–2
Progeny have won 9.4% of 637 runs since 2008 (50 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 4.8% from 126.
Silvano (GER)50% · 1–2
Progeny have won 11.4% of 378 runs since 2008 (34 horses).
Beat Hollow (GB)0% · 0–1
Progeny have won 11.3% of 6,034 runs since 2008 (412 horses).
Dashing Blade (GB)0% · 0–1
Progeny have won 10.2% of 635 runs since 2008 (94 horses).
Desert Prince (IRE)0% · 0–1
Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,734 runs since 2008 (178 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 5.6% from 425.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
all 39 archived runs · newest first
Every one of J-P Carvalho's 39 archived rides, from 16 June 2005 to 25 August 2013, newest first — 10 winners among them.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is J-P Carvalho's strike rate?
J-P Carvalho has won 3 of 16 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 18.8% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive. A small sample — fewer than 30 rides, so read the count before the percentage.
J-P Carvalho·SR 18.8%·A/E 1.49
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