What is John Cavanagh's strike rate?

John Cavanagh has won 10 of 243 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 4.1% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does John Cavanagh do best at?

Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 1 wins from 31 rides (3.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does John Cavanagh ride most for?

Mel Brittain, with 153 rides since 2008 — 63% of the total. That pairing has won 5 (3.3%).

What is John Cavanagh's Fair A/E?

0.56, from 243 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

John Cavanagh

243 rides in the lifetime window · 108 individual horses

As at 22 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Oct 2011 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

10–243

Wins / Runs

4.1%

Strike rate

n=243

41 (17%)

Placed

0.56

Fair A/E

n=243 · 0.48 incl. margin

−105.15

£1 level stake

n=243 at SP · −43.3%

£49,321

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 60 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.56). Rode mostly for Mel Brittain — 63% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 243 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 22 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 5.4% Mel Brittain: 3.3% from 153

The read

The market has consistently overbet claiming rides: 2.9% strike, Fair A/E 0.42 and −131.75 to a £1 stake over 206 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Mel Brittain supplied 63% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (3.3%, A/E 0.46). The rider also read well in Class 6 (8%, n=113) and off a 31-60-day break (8.1%, n=37). The record read poorly off a 15-30-day break — 0% over 75 rides, 4.1pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider in Class 5: Fair A/E 0.13 across 107 rides (0.9% strike, −103.75 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.1% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

3.8%−0.3

n=106 · A/E 0.63 · £1 −47.50

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

8.3%+4.2

n=12 · A/E 0.57 · £1 −9.90

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

5.4%+1.3

n=37 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −15.50

When favourite

30%

n=10 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −0.90

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

2.9%−1.2

n=206 · A/E 0.42 · £1 −131.75

Big fields · 14+ runners

3.8%−0.3

n=52 · A/E 0.78 · £1 −29.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

In Class 6 8% vs 4.1% · n=113

Off a 15-30-day break 0% vs 4.1% · n=75

In Class 5 0.9% vs 4.1% · n=107

Off a 31-60-day break 8.1% vs 4.1% · n=37

On Good going 1.9% vs 4.1% · n=54

On Standard (AW) going 6.3% vs 4.1% · n=48

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good to Firm 94 5 5.3% −54.25

Good 54 1 1.9% −28.00

Standard (AW) 48 3 6.3% +21.10

Good to Soft 26 1 3.8% −23.00

Soft 16 0 0% −16.00

Heavy 3 0 0% −3.00

Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Southwell (AW) 31 1 3.2% −5.00

Newcastle 26 0 0% −26.00

Ripon 25 1 4% +1.00

Redcar 24 1 4.2% −20.75

Thirsk 20 0 0% −20.00

Beverley 19 1 5.3% −8.00

Wolverhampton (AW) 16 2 12.5% +27.10

Doncaster 13 1 7.7% −1.00

Catterick 10 1 10% −6.00

Pontefract 9 0 0% −9.00

Haydock 8 0 0% −8.00

Hamilton 7 1 14.3% −4.00

Nottingham 6 0 0% −6.00

York 6 0 0% −6.00

Warwick 5 0 0% −5.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 113 9 8% +21.60

Class 5 107 1 0.9% −103.75

Class 4 18 0 0% −18.00

Class 7 4 0 0% −4.00

Class 3 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 11 3 27.3% 1.08 −1.90

2nd–3rd fav 39 1 2.6% 0.17 −35.75

4th–6th fav 67 3 4.5% 0.60 −34.50

7th+ in betting 126 3 2.4% 0.76 −33.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Grey Command (USA) 12 1 2 2 Jun 11

Seldom (IRE) 10 1 3 30 Jul 11

Sea Crest (GB) 10 0 3 7 Apr 11

Carragold (GB) 8 0 2 8 Apr 11

Nabrina (IRE) 8 0 2 29 May 10

Sea Rover (IRE) 6 0 0 27 Apr 11

Lujiana (GB) 6 1 1 8 May 10

Mandalay King (IRE) 6 2 2 19 Aug 09

Rotuma (IRE) 6 0 0 18 Sep 08

Caranbola (GB) 5 0 1 29 Jul 11

Towthorpe (GB) 5 0 0 30 Nov 10

Tobrata (GB) 5 0 1 16 Nov 10

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 108 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

81301263230000

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardMel Brittain

63% of all rides
3.3% SR · A/E 0.46

TrainerRWSR£1

Mel Brittain 153 5 3.3% −83.65

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

£56,559

Prize money

2010

Best season · 4 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Migration (GB) — Teletext Racing Apprentice Handicap Southwell · Apr 2006 · Class 5

£3,239

Betteras Bertie (GB) — Unison Family Protection 'There For You' Apprentice Handicap (Str) Doncaster · May 2009 · Class 6

£2,914

Channel Crossing (GB) — Tigers Apprentice Handicap Leicester · May 2010 · Class 6

£2,590

Notable horses

Mandalay King (IRE) Grey Command (USA) Seldom (IRE) Lujiana (GB) Portrush Storm (GB) Betteras Bertie (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Xaar (GB) 0% · 0–14

Progeny have won 6.1% of 2,429 runs since 2008 (218 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 10.7% from 122.

Daylami (IRE) 8.3% · 1–12

Progeny have won 10.6% of 3,508 runs since 2008 (253 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 6.4% from 109.

Diktat (GB) 0% · 0–12

Progeny have won 8.2% of 4,931 runs since 2008 (337 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 11.4% from 431. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 5.1% from 156.

Namid (GB) 0% · 0–11

Progeny have won 8.2% of 4,102 runs since 2008 (276 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 2.4% from 164. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 0.8% from 119.

Tobougg (IRE) 0% · 0–11

Progeny have won 8.5% of 6,096 runs since 2008 (464 horses).

Sesaro (USA) 10% · 1–10

Progeny have won 7.5% of 253 runs since 2008 (17 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 291 · newest first

The latest 50 of 291 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 13 April 2005 to 14 October 2011.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

14 Oct 11 Redcar Northgate Lodge (USA)T: Mel Brittain Racing UK On Sky 432 Maiden Stakes (Div 2)Class 5 · 6f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 5th 10/1

24 Sep 11 Ripon Fantastic Times (GB)T: Mel Brittain totepool Flexi Betting Maiden StakesClass 5 · 12f · Good · 10 ran 10th 80/1

15 Sep 11 Pontefract Fantastic Times (GB)T: Mel Brittain Book Your 17th October totesport Package Maiden Stakes (Div 2)Class 5 · 10f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 6th 100/1

30 Jul 11 Hamilton Seldom (IRE)T: Mel Brittain Racing UK Handicap (Qualifier For The Betfair Bonus Scottish Racing Mile Final)Class 5 · 8.5f · Good · 8 ran 4th 10/3

29 Jul 11 Thirsk Big Slick (IRE)T: Mel Brittain Northallerton Shooting & Country Wear Handicap (Div 2)Class 5 · 7f · Good · 10 ran 7th 16/1

29 Jul 11 Thirsk Caranbola (GB)T: Mel Brittain Peter Bell Memorial HandicapClass 4 · 6f · Good · 12 ran 10th 9/2

02 Jul 11 Beverley Cottam Stella (GB)T: Mel Brittain Coachman Maiden StakesClass 5 · 5f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 6th 28/1

02 Jun 11 Southwell (AW) Grey Command (USA)T: Mel Brittain At The Races Sky 415 HandicapClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 7 ran 7th 12/1

27 Apr 11 Newcastle Sea Rover (IRE)T: Mel Brittain Freebetting.co.uk Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 13th 33/1

08 Apr 11 Newcastle Carragold (GB)T: Mel Brittain Gosforth Decorating & Building Services Apprentice Handicap (Str)Class 6 · 8f · Good · 13 ran 9th 12/1

07 Apr 11 Ripon Sea Crest (GB)T: Mel Brittain attheraces.com Apprentice HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Good · 12 ran 8th 25/1

30 Nov 10 Southwell (AW) Towthorpe (GB)T: Mel Brittain Coco & Luis At The Double Maiden StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 6 ran 5th 33/1

16 Nov 10 Southwell (AW) Tobrata (GB)T: Mel Brittain southwell-racecourse.co.uk Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 10th 17/2

16 Nov 10 Southwell (AW) Flaxton (UAE)T: Mel Brittain Betdaq On 08701781221 Selling StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 8 ran 5th 28/1

25 Oct 10 Southwell (AW) Sea Crest (GB)T: Mel Brittain Breeders' Cup Live Only On ATR Apprentice Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 20/1

25 Oct 10 Southwell (AW) Russian Brigadier (GB)T: Mel Brittain Breeders' Cup Live Only On ATR Apprentice Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 4th 25/1

22 Oct 10 Doncaster Cottam Donny (GB)T: Mel Brittain 'Toolarrest' Drop Stops Here E.B.F. Maiden StakesClass 4 · 7f · Good · 18 ran 17th 200/1

23 Sep 10 Pontefract Grey Command (USA)T: Mel Brittain Pontefract Apprentice HandicapClass 5 · 12f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 6th 9/1

15 Sep 10 Beverley Plenilune (IRE)T: Mel Brittain Betfair Racing Excellence Apprentice Training Series Classified Stakes (Div 2)Class 6 · 8.5f · Good · 11 ran 9th 10/1

15 Sep 10 Beverley Carragold (GB)T: Mel Brittain Betfair Racing Excellence Apprentice Training Series Classified Stakes (Div 1)Class 6 · 8.5f · Good · 12 ran 3rd 7/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is John Cavanagh's strike rate?: John Cavanagh has won 10 of 243 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 4.1% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does John Cavanagh do best at?: Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 1 wins from 31 rides (3.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does John Cavanagh ride most for?: Mel Brittain, with 153 rides since 2008 — 63% of the total. That pairing has won 5 (3.3%).
What is John Cavanagh's Fair A/E?: 0.56, from 243 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.