What is Paul Green's strike rate?

Paul Green has won 104 of 1,259 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.3% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Paul Green do best at?

Catterick by strike rate: 17 wins from 105 runners (16.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Paul Green?

Silvestre De Sousa, with 138 runners since 2008 — 11% of the total. That pairing has won 12 (8.7%).

What is Paul Green's Fair A/E?

1.10, from 1,252 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Paul Green

1,259 runners in the lifetime window · 75 individual horses

As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Dec 2016 98% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

104–1,259

Wins / Runs

8.3%

Strike rate

n=1,259

275 (22%)

Placed

1.10

Fair A/E

n=1,252 · 0.95 incl. margin

−149.98

£1 level stake

n=1,259 at SP · −11.9%

£607k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

4.9%

KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 140 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 8% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.10).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,259 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance 36% when favourite Silvestre De Sousa: 8.7% from 138 Sent off the favourite in 4% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Catterick (16.2%, n=105), clear of the yard's 8.3% baseline. It is weakest at Leicester (0% over 39 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 3.7% (n=162, Fair A/E 0.86). Silvestre De Sousa rode 11% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (8.7%, A/E 0.87). The yard also read well off a 0-7-day break (18%, n=161) and on Heavy going (18.2%, n=33). The record read poorly over 1m – 1m1f — 2.1% over 188 runners, 6.2pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record was Rusty Rocket (IRE) — 10 wins from 72 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.3% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

3.7%−4.6

n=162 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −43.50

New recruits · first run for the yard

0%−8.3

n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00

Debutants · first career start

5.8%−2.5

n=52 · A/E 1.57 · £1 −8.50

First-time headgear · true-first definition

6.5%−1.8

n=31 · A/E 1.23 · £1 +11.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

8.3%+0.0

n=48 · A/E 1.25 · £1 +0.25

When favourite

36%

n=50 · A/E 1.56 · £1 +17.78

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

7%−1.3

n=316 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −60.34

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−8.3

n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Off a 0-7-day break 18% vs 8.3% · n=161

At Catterick 16.2% vs 8.3% · n=105

On Heavy going 18.2% vs 8.3% · n=33

Over 1m – 1m1f 2.1% vs 8.3% · n=188

At Leicester 0% vs 8.3% · n=39

With Franny Norton 14% vs 8.3% · n=100

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 1,234 103 8.3% −150.98

Hurdle 16 0 0% −16.00

NH Flat 8 1 12.5% +18.00

Chase 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 369 21 5.7% −160.38

Good to Firm 343 31 9% −28.93

Good 252 17 6.7% −31.00

Good to Soft 140 14 10% +19.75

Soft 114 15 13.2% +47.75

Heavy 33 6 18.2% +10.83

Firm 8 0 0% −8.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 274 13 4.7% −114.75

Haydock 187 10 5.3% −62.42

Chester 115 14 12.2% −12.00

Catterick 105 17 16.2% +79.58

Southwell (AW) 90 7 7.8% −44.38

Carlisle 82 10 12.2% +32.50

Nottingham 70 8 11.4% +18.33

Thirsk 55 4 7.3% −9.00

Leicester 39 0 0% −39.00

Redcar 39 6 15.4% +20.33

Beverley 27 3 11.1% +19.83

Ripon 27 1 3.7% −19.00

Pontefract 22 1 4.5% −19.00

Hamilton 22 4 18.2% +5.75

Warwick 18 1 5.6% +8.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 462 41 8.9% −54.76

Class 6 372 29 7.8% −44.05

Class 4 290 24 8.3% −28.42

Class 3 72 7 9.7% −8.75

Class 2 41 1 2.4% −7.00

Class 1 8 0 0% −8.00

Class 7 8 1 12.5% −0.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 70 23 32.9% 1.52 +21.28

2nd–3rd fav 175 28 16% 1.10 −18.26

4th–6th fav 399 30 7.5% 0.91 −105.00

7th+ in betting 615 23 3.7% 1.09 −48.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Lucky Dan (IRE) 89 9 20 5 Aug 14

Rusty Rocket (IRE) 72 10 22 25 Oct 16

Dubara Reef (IRE) 67 7 17 27 Sep 14

Ferdy (IRE) 60 3 14 27 Aug 16

Beau Mistral (IRE)then Tony Carroll 50 5 15 18 Jul 14

Legal Eagle (IRE)from David Nicholls · then Noel Williams 50 2 14 6 Apr 13

Rio Cobolo (IRE)then David Nicholls 48 6 18 25 Sep 10

Lucky Numbers (IRE)then David O'Meara 47 5 16 4 Nov 11

Baltic Prince (IRE)then Tony Carroll 46 4 14 24 Oct 14

Invincible Force (IRE)from Ms Deborah J Evans 45 4 8 11 May 13

M J Woodward (GB) 40 8 12 26 May 14

Timber Treasure (USA)from Sir Henry Cecil 39 4 10 15 Jul 11

The 60 most-raced of 75 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 14 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Ms Deborah J Evans (3) and Richard Hannon Snr (2); 46 had their first archived run for this yard.

22 have since run for another yard, most often for Tony Carroll (5) and Eric Alston (2); 38 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

98312981377498

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderSilvestre De Sousa

11% of all rides
8.7% SR · A/E 0.87

RiderRWSR£1

Silvestre De Sousa 138 12 8.7% −27.42

Raul Da Silva 117 11 9.4% +39.00

Franny Norton 100 14 14% +60.16

James Sullivan 66 6 9.1% −33.17

Joe Fanning 63 8 12.7% −0.75

Paul Mulrennan 56 8 14.3% +25.00

Andrew Heffernan 38 2 5.3% −4.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2007→

110

Archived wins

£836k

Prize money

2013

Best season · 20 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Sudden Impact (IRE) — Tattersalls Ireland Sale Stakes Curragh · Aug 2007

£147,000

Invincible Force (IRE) — William Fry Handicap Curragh · Sep 2007

£45,570

Invincible Force (IRE) — totesportbingo.com Handicap Doncaster · Nov 2008 · Class 2

£25,904

Notable horses

Rusty Rocket (IRE) Lucky Dan (IRE) M J Woodward (GB) Dubara Reef (IRE) Feeling Fresh (IRE) Jilly Why (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 5.4% · 6–112

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,807 runs since 2008 (1,573 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 843.

Danetime (IRE) 10.1% · 9–89

Progeny have won 11.1% of 2,846 runs since 2008 (149 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 7.3% from 218.

Majestic Missile (IRE) 13.9% · 10–72

Progeny have won 8.4% of 1,897 runs since 2008 (110 horses).

Dubawi (IRE) 10.4% · 7–67

Progeny have won 18.4% of 12,918 runs since 2008 (1,517 horses). Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 9.8% from 429.

Captain Rio (GB) 12.3% · 8–65

Progeny have won 9.5% of 6,912 runs since 2008 (423 horses).

Antonius Pius (USA) 5% · 3–60

Progeny have won 8.1% of 3,236 runs since 2008 (195 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 5% from 339.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,371 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,371 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 8 May 2007 to 27 December 2016.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

27 Dec 16 Wolverhampton (AW) Lydiate Lady (GB)J: Tony Hamilton Betway Sprint Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 10/1

11 Nov 16 Wolverhampton (AW) Lydiate Lady (GB)J: Luke Morris Betway Sprint Distance HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 11 ran 5th 8/1

25 Oct 16 Catterick Lydiate Lady (GB)J: Tony Hamilton Jump Season Next On November 30th Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 5f · Soft · 11 ran 4th 15/2

25 Oct 16 Catterick Rusty Rocket (IRE)J: Joe Fanning Dine And View At Catterick Races HandicapClass 4 · 7f · Soft · 15 ran 15th 25/1

06 Sep 16 Redcar Jabbarockie (GB)J: P J McDonald Racing UK Day Pass Just 10 Maiden StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good · 9 ran 7th 5/1

02 Sep 16 Haydock Rusty Rocket (IRE)J: Paul Hanagan Us Open Tennis At 188bet HandicapClass 4 · 5f · Good · 15 ran 13th 25/1

27 Aug 16 Beverley Ferdy (IRE)J: Joe Doyle East Gate Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Good · 10 ran 4th 6/1

27 Aug 16 Beverley Jabbarockie (GB)J: P J McDonald totescoop6 Racing's Millionaire Maker Maiden StakesClass 4 · 5f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 12/1

22 Aug 16 Carlisle Ferdy (IRE)J: Graham Lee Apollobet HandicapClass 6 · 9f · Good · 11 ran 6th 9/1

22 Aug 16 Carlisle Lydiate Lady (GB)J: Graham Lee Apollobet Cashback If 2nd HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Good · 10 ran 9th 10/1

16 Aug 16 Leicester Master Choice (IRE)J: Graham Lee Qdos Consulting HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 12th 25/1

09 Aug 16 Thirsk Rusty Rocket (IRE)J: P J McDonald Follow racing_uk On Twitter HandicapClass 4 · 5f · Good To Firm · 13 ran 11th 12/1

09 Aug 16 Thirsk Ferdy (IRE)J: P J McDonald Tobey Stewart 1st Birthday HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 4th 12/1

06 Aug 16 Haydock Lydiate Lady (GB)J: Tom Queally Betfred "Like Us On Facebook" HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 4th 11/2

05 Aug 16 Haydock Lydiate Lady (GB)J: Franny Norton Betfred 'Be Part Of The Action' Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 6th 5/1

20 Jul 16 Catterick Rusty Rocket (IRE)J: P J McDonald Sky Bet Go-Racing-In-Yorkshire Summer Festival HandicapClass 4 · 5f · Good To Firm · 13 ran 6th 12/1

16 Jul 16 Haydock Lydiate Lady (GB)J: Franny Norton ApolloBet Home Of Cashback Offers Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Soft · 9 ran 2nd 5/1

07 Jul 16 Carlisle Rusty Rocket (IRE)J: P J McDonald Apollobet Home Of Cashback Offers HandicapClass 4 · 5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 4th 6/1

02 Jul 16 Carlisle Ferdy (IRE)J: Kevin Stott Story Contracting HandicapClass 5 · 9f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 6th 9/2

02 Jul 16 Carlisle Lydiate Lady (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan Cleanevent Group HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 1st 7/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul Green's strike rate?: Paul Green has won 104 of 1,259 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.3% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paul Green do best at?: Catterick by strike rate: 17 wins from 105 runners (16.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Paul Green?: Silvestre De Sousa, with 138 runners since 2008 — 11% of the total. That pairing has won 12 (8.7%).
What is Paul Green's Fair A/E?: 1.10, from 1,252 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.