What is Alan Swinbank's strike rate?

Alan Swinbank has won 508 of 3,476 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 14.6% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Alan Swinbank do best at?

Sedgefield by strike rate: 22 wins from 109 runners (20.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Alan Swinbank?

P J McDonald, with 757 runners since 2008 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 106 (14%).

What is Alan Swinbank's Fair A/E?

1.08, from 3,466 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Alan Swinbank

3,476 runners in the lifetime window · 394 individual horses

As at 29 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner May 2017

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

508–3,476

Wins / Runs

14.6%

Strike rate

n=3,476

1,233 (36%)

Placed

1.08

Fair A/E

n=3,466 · 0.93 incl. margin

−584.05

£1 level stake

n=3,476 at SP · −16.8%

£3.11m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

12.4%

KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 350 runners a season, winning with 15% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.08).

Deterministic profile computed from 3,476 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 29 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Feb–Mar 32.3% when favourite P J McDonald: 14% from 757 Claiming riders: 16% Sent off the favourite in 15% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Market Rasen (33.9%, n=59), clear of the yard's 14.6% baseline. New recruits from other stables on their first run struggle at 0% (n=53, Fair A/E 0.00). P J McDonald rode 22% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (14%, A/E 1.15) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also read well in NH Flat races (23.9%, n=322). 8 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Irish Field St. Leger at Curragh (Sep 2005, £171,600). The stable star of the record was Alfie Flits (GB) — 9 wins from 37 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fired Feb–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 14.6% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

11%−3.6

n=617 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −172.98

New recruits · first run for the yard

0%−14.6

n=53 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −53.00

Debutants · first career start

13.1%−1.5

n=283 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −20.55

First-time headgear · true-first definition

7.1%−7.5

n=42 · A/E 0.52 · £1 −26.25

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

14.3%−0.3

n=21 · A/E 1.34 · £1 −2.00

When favourite

32.3%

n=523 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −51.24

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

16%+1.4

n=450 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −100.77

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

2.9%−11.7

n=34 · A/E 0.33 · £1 −30.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 14.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Market Rasen 33.9% vs 14.6% · n=59

On last-time-out winners 24.2% vs 14.6% · n=472

With new recruits 0% vs 14.6% · n=53

With Paul Moloney 27.1% vs 14.6% · n=85

In NH Flat races 23.9% vs 14.6% · n=322

In Group / Graded races 2.9% vs 14.6% · n=34

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 2,691 350 13% −496.53

Hurdle 360 60 16.7% −90.76

NH Flat 322 77 23.9% +6.36

Chase 103 21 20.4% −3.12

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 988 132 13.4% −226.93

Good to Firm 743 96 12.9% −188.41

Good to Soft 565 92 16.3% +28.27

Soft 519 70 13.5% −122.80

Standard (AW) 488 87 17.8% −75.06

Heavy 150 29 19.3% +13.38

Firm 23 2 8.7% −12.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Southwell (AW) 289 56 19.4% −39.93

Carlisle 272 40 14.7% +0.62

Hamilton 222 34 15.3% −6.44

Catterick 221 26 11.8% −91.44

Newcastle 201 25 12.4% −7.70

Redcar 200 18 9% −42.75

Musselburgh 193 35 18.1% −35.51

Thirsk 168 21 12.5% −17.88

Ayr 166 24 14.5% −9.00

Haydock 149 20 13.4% −27.00

Pontefract 147 18 12.2% −45.17

Doncaster 134 16 11.9% −21.88

Ripon 115 12 10.4% −36.50

Wolverhampton (AW) 113 19 16.8% −11.87

Sedgefield 109 22 20.2% −26.27

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 1,305 184 14.1% −160.56

Class 4 1,028 155 15.1% −167.86

Class 6 592 114 19.3% −15.77

Class 3 332 40 12% −107.19

Class 2 163 12 7.4% −94.00

Class 1 54 3 5.6% −36.67

Class 7 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 610 198 32.5% 1.07 −24.53

2nd–3rd fav 953 190 19.9% 1.19 +27.48

4th–6th fav 1,170 101 8.6% 1.07 −149.00

7th+ in betting 743 19 2.6% 0.64 −438.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Northside Prince (IRE) 80 4 36 25 Oct 16

Persian Peril (GB) 53 7 19 28 May 14

I'm Super Too (IRE)then Karen Tutty 52 6 19 29 Jan 15

Lothair (IRE) 41 6 11 1 Nov 16

Eutropius (IRE) 40 6 12 27 Sep 16

Hail Bold Chief (USA) 39 4 10 27 Aug 15

Bandanaman (IRE) 39 3 11 5 Aug 13

Dark Ruler (IRE)then Jason Ward 37 4 15 17 Sep 16

Bivouac (UAE) 37 8 13 22 May 14

Native Falls (IRE) 35 4 9 12 Apr 17

Entihaa (GB)then Dai Burchell 34 5 14 12 Dec 15

Ralphy Lad (IRE) 33 3 9 21 Feb 17

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 394 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 16 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 3 arrived from another yard in our archive; 57 had their first archived run for this yard.

32 have since run for another yard, most often for Sally Haynes (5) and Anthony Honeyball (3); 28 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

13211816131413151392316

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderP J McDonald

22% of all rides
14% SR · A/E 1.15

RiderRWSR£1

P J McDonald 757 106 14% −45.96

Robert Winston 434 57 13.1% −146.94

Ben Curtis 356 44 12.4% −41.59

Brian Hughes 307 65 21.2% −14.70

Neil Farley 121 9 7.4% −74.63

Garry Whillans 114 8 7% −57.00

Joe Fanning 95 20 21.1% +26.80

Paul Moloney 85 23 27.1% +31.51

Barry Keniry 66 10 15.2% −13.29

Fearghal Davis 65 6 9.2% −22.15

Andrew Elliott 65 7 10.8% −14.25

David Allan 62 13 21% +26.75

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

680

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£4.62m

Prize money

2010

Best season · 82 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Collier Hill (GB) — Irish Field St. Leger (group 1) Curragh · Sep 2005 · Group 1

£171,600

Formal Decree (GER) — totesport Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) Newmarket · Sep 2006 · Class 2

£93,480

Turbo Linn (GB) — H.B.L.B. Lancashire Oaks (Fillies' Group 2) Newmarket · Jul 2007 · Group 2

£34,068

Notable horses

Alfie Flits (GB) Priceless Art (IRE) Persian Peril (GB) Bivouac (UAE) Turbo Linn (GB) Cotton Eyed Joe (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Desert Prince (IRE) 7.9% · 7–89

Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,734 runs since 2008 (178 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 5.6% from 425.

Fasliyev (USA) 13.7% · 10–73

Progeny have won 8.3% of 4,140 runs since 2008 (273 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 12.1% from 124.

Intense Focus (USA) 18.3% · 13–71

Progeny have won 8.3% of 3,630 runs since 2008 (218 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 11.5% from 349. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 11.5% from 384.

Piccolo (GB) 9.5% · 6–63

Progeny have won 7.8% of 6,904 runs since 2008 (393 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 11.6% from 164. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 3.5% from 258.

Ad Valorem (USA) 12.9% · 8–62

Progeny have won 9.1% of 1,585 runs since 2008 (101 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 12.3% from 618. Weakest on Good to Firm going: 5.2% from 248.

Danehill Dancer (IRE) 15.5% · 9–58

Progeny have won 11.2% of 10,094 runs since 2008 (783 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.2% from 130.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 29 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 4,506 · newest first

The latest 50 of 4,506 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 13 January 2005 to 17 May 2017.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

17 May 17 York Busy Street (GB)J: Joe Fanning York Data Services Internet Cloud Solutions HandicapClass 4 · 12f · Soft · 16 ran 13th 10/1

15 May 17 Wetherby Fidra Bay (IRE)J: Joe Fanning Racing UK Now Live On YouView 231 HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Good · 16 ran 11th 20/1

13 May 17 Thirsk Last Chance Paddy (USA)J: Neil Farley Jw 4x4 Northallerton Maiden StakesClass 5 · 8f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 8th 16/1

13 May 17 Thirsk Little Miss Lola (GB)J: Neil Farley Dick Peacock Sprint HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Good To Firm · 13 ran 5th 66/1

08 May 17 Southwell (AW) Deep Resolve (IRE)J: Robert Winston Bookies.com Free Bets HandicapClass 5 · 12f · Standard · 8 ran 3rd 2/1F

08 May 17 Southwell (AW) Austerity (IRE)J: Neil Farley bookies.com Free Bets Maiden StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 7 ran 6th 33/1

07 May 17 Hamilton Last Chance Paddy (USA)J: Neil Farley totepool Supporting #MHAW17 8th-14th May 2107 Maiden StakesClass 5 · 8.5f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 5th 33/1

07 May 17 Hamilton Genres (GB)J: Joe Fanning Toteexacta Pick The 1st & 2nd HandicapClass 5 · 11f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 1st 5/1

07 May 17 Hamilton Busy Street (GB)J: P J McDonald Totepool Buttonhook HandicapClass 3 · 13f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 4th 6/4F

06 May 17 Doncaster Codeshare (GB)J: P J McDonald Capgemini HandicapClass 4 · 14.5f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 2nd 13/2

05 May 17 Musselburgh Fidra Bay (IRE)J: Joe Fanning Bam Construction HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 6th 16/1

05 May 17 Musselburgh Go George Go (IRE)J: Joe Fanning Weatherbys Private Bank HandicapClass 4 · 12.5f · Good To Firm · 5 ran 2nd 2/1F

04 May 17 Sedgefield Brecon Hill (IRE)J: Richard Johnson Denys Smith Winners Suite Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 17f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 4/9F

02 May 17 Nottingham Stanarley Pic (GB)J: Silvestre De Sousa 32Red HandicapClass 4 · 14f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 7th 7/2

30 Apr 17 Thirsk Give It Some Teddy (GB)J: Neil Farley Thirsk Racecourse Ideal Conference Venue Maiden StakesClass 5 · 8f · Good · 14 ran 4th 20/1

30 Apr 17 Thirsk Steccando (IRE)J: Joe Fanning Advance Ticket Booking Discount At thirskracecourse.net HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Good · 15 ran 6th 22/1

27 Apr 17 Market Rasen Virnon (GB)J: Leighton Aspell 32Red.com Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 17f · Good · 5 ran 1st 11/4

18 Apr 17 Southwell (AW) Virnon (GB)J: Finley Marsh Collect totepool Winnings At Betfred Shops Apprentice HandicapClass 5 · 14f · Standard · 7 ran 3rd 9/4F

18 Apr 17 Newmarket Lavetta (GB)J: Joe Fanning Plusvital Racing Genepak HandicapClass 2 · 8f · Good To Firm · 13 ran 9th 20/1

17 Apr 17 Redcar Stanarley Pic (GB)J: Neil Farley Olivia Renshaw Designed Today's Racecard Cover HandicapClass 6 · 16f · Good · 12 ran 7th 25/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Alan Swinbank's strike rate?: Alan Swinbank has won 508 of 3,476 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 14.6% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Alan Swinbank do best at?: Sedgefield by strike rate: 22 wins from 109 runners (20.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Alan Swinbank?: P J McDonald, with 757 runners since 2008 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 106 (14%).
What is Alan Swinbank's Fair A/E?: 1.08, from 3,466 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.