What is Lucy Gardner's strike rate?

Lucy Gardner has won 77 of 986 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.8% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Lucy Gardner do best at?

Uttoxeter by strike rate: 4 wins from 37 rides (10.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Lucy Gardner ride most for?

Sue Gardner, with 946 rides since 2008 — 96% of the total. That pairing has won 77 (8.1%).

What is Lucy Gardner's Fair A/E?

0.96, from 986 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Lucy Gardner

986 rides in the lifetime window · 158 individual horses

As at 14 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 28 days ago 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

77–986

Wins / Runs

7.8%

Strike rate

n=986

234 (24%)

Placed

0.96

Fair A/E

n=986 · 0.83 incl. margin

−353.03

£1 level stake

n=986 at SP · −35.8%

£708k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

3.6%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 50 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.96). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 16% (87 rides). Rides mostly for Sue Gardner — 96% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 986 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 14 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 29.1% when favourite Sue Gardner: 8.1% from 946 LTO winners: 16.1% Claiming: 9.7% Rides the favourite in 6% of races

The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 16.1% (n=87, Fair A/E 1.13), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 3.2% (n=186, Fair A/E 0.65). The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 3.3% strike, Fair A/E 0.67 and −106.00 to a £1 stake over 151 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Sue Gardner supplies 96% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (8.1%, A/E 1.01) — the market has that partnership priced right. The rider also reads well in Class 3 (13.6%, n=184) and off a 0-7-day break (15.2%, n=33). One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the George Smith Horseboxes Handicap Hurdle at Hereford (Dec 2018, £18,768). The standout partner of the record: Bredon Hill Lad (GB) — 9 wins from 41 rides together.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.8% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

3.3%−4.5

n=151 · A/E 0.67 · £1 −106.00

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

16.1%+8.3

n=87 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −13.75

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

5%−2.8

n=222 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −84.67

When favourite

29.1%

n=55 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −2.23

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

9.7%+1.9

n=618 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −175.81

Big fields · 14+ runners

3.2%−4.6

n=186 · A/E 0.65 · £1 −109.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

6.7%−1.1

n=15 · A/E 1.38 · £1 +2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 16.1% vs 7.8% · n=87

In Class 3 13.6% vs 7.8% · n=184

With horses switching code 1.2% vs 7.8% · n=86

With debutants 1.3% vs 7.8% · n=79

Off a 0-7-day break 15.2% vs 7.8% · n=33

With C&D winners 13% vs 7.8% · n=131

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 673 55 8.2% −252.77

Chase 172 17 9.9% −52.76

NH Flat 140 5 3.6% −46.50

Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 284 25 8.8% −96.56

Good 254 13 5.1% −133.13

Good to Soft 201 13 6.5% −53.00

Heavy 174 18 10.3% −42.09

Good to Firm 66 8 12.1% −21.25

Standard (AW) 6 0 0% −6.00

Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Exeter 234 23 9.8% −89.96

Newton Abbot 117 4 3.4% −79.50

Fontwell 77 6 7.8% −53.88

Chepstow 66 3 4.5% −24.75

Taunton 64 4 6.3% −35.75

Wincanton 56 5 8.9% +33.75

Ffos Las 49 4 8.2% −24.09

Uttoxeter 37 4 10.8% +2.00

Sandown 33 1 3% −27.50

Stratford 29 2 6.9% +26.50

Worcester 24 2 8.3% −10.50

Hereford 22 2 9.1% −5.00

Plumpton 20 2 10% −9.00

Warwick 16 2 12.5% −1.67

Ascot 14 1 7.1% +3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 400 26 6.5% −178.44

Class 5 305 23 7.5% −96.42

Class 3 184 25 13.6% −13.67

Class 6 56 1 1.8% −48.50

Class 2 25 1 4% −17.00

Class 1 15 1 6.7% +2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 70 18 25.7% 1.05 −10.73

2nd–3rd fav 164 29 17.7% 1.10 −13.30

4th–6th fav 323 23 7.1% 0.96 −100.00

7th+ in betting 429 7 1.6% 0.56 −229.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

2m1f – 2m4f 371 27 7.3% −207.80

2m5f – 3m 317 25 7.9% −56.25

1m5f – 2m 212 14 6.6% −75.51

Over 3m 85 11 12.9% −12.47

1m2f – 1m4f 1 0 0% −1.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 26 1 3.8% −17.00

2009 13 1 7.7% −9.75

2010 18 0 0% −18.00

2011 28 2 7.1% −16.25

2012 51 6 11.8% −19.30

2013 55 8 14.5% +54.75

2014 77 9 11.7% −21.67

2015 80 7 8.8% −35.50

2016 84 7 8.3% −33.17

2017 105 13 12.4% −32.54

2018 81 4 4.9% −60.38

2019 81 7 8.6% −17.38

2020 59 6 10.2% −14.50

2021 64 1 1.6% −23.00

2022 46 1 2.2% −37.00

2023 31 0 0% −31.00

2024 29 2 6.9% −20.34

2025 30 1 3.3% +4.00

2026 28 1 3.6% −5.00

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 671 70 10.4% −150.86

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 344 29 8.4% −84.09

11-13 runners 248 14 5.6% −74.50

5-7 runners 195 25 12.8% −79.64

14-16 runners 131 3 2.3% −110.50

17+ runners 55 3 5.5% +1.50

2-4 runners 13 3 23.1% −5.80

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

83.1% completed · 845 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 172 74.4% 8 4 31 1 0

Hurdle 673 85.3% 15 14 66 2 2

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Trans Express (IRE) 48 7 15 16 Dec 21

Tea Time Fred (GB) 47 5 15 12 Jun 21

Here's Herbie (GB) 47 4 16 9 Jun 21

Bredon Hill Lad (GB) 41 9 12 16 Mar 20

Only Gorgeous (IRE) 40 3 11 18 Apr 21

Storm Alert (GB) 34 3 12 6 Jun 17

Sirop De Menthe (FR) 30 4 11 17 Feb 22

Doctor Look Here (IRE) 27 4 9 8 Sep 20

Orion Express (GB) 26 2 4 5 Jun 13

Flying Award (IRE) 24 7 10 6 Feb 15

Astronomic View (GB) 21 2 11 17 Mar 26

Rafafie (GB) 20 3 8 2 Feb 18

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 158 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

75119945635713

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardSue Gardner

96% of all rides
8.1% SR · A/E 1.01

TrainerRWSR£1

Sue Gardner 946 77 8.1% −313.03

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£747k

Prize money

2017

Best season · 13 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Coeur Blimey (IRE) — George Smith Horseboxes Handicap Hurdle Hereford · Dec 2018 · Class 2

£18,768

Coeur Blimey (IRE) — Neptune Investment Management Championship Standard Open NH Flat Race (Listed) Ascot · Dec 2015 · Listed

£17,085

Flying Award (IRE) — G A Engineering Highland National (Handicap Chase) (For The Julian Llewelyn Palmer Memorial Trophy) Perth · Apr 2013 · Class 3

£12,996

Notable horses

Bredon Hill Lad (GB) Trans Express (IRE) Flying Award (IRE) Tea Time Fred (GB) Here's Herbie (GB) Sirop De Menthe (FR)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kayf Tara (GB) 9.1% · 8–88

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,772 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Winged Love (IRE) 11.8% · 6–51

Progeny have won 10.9% of 3,965 runs since 2008 (296 horses).

Trans Island (GB) 14% · 7–50

Progeny have won 9% of 4,744 runs since 2008 (295 horses).

Classic Cliche (IRE) 8.3% · 4–48

Progeny have won 8% of 2,328 runs since 2008 (231 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 11.1% from 244.

Vertical Speed (FR) 6.8% · 3–44

Progeny have won 9.1% of 784 runs since 2008 (79 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 15.1% from 139.

Dr Massini (IRE) 12.2% · 5–41

Progeny have won 10.6% of 4,942 runs since 2008 (406 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14% from 421.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,087 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,087 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 17 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

17 Oct 26 Newton Abbot Moonlight Ballet (GB)T: Susan Gardner Sky Sports Racing Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 7 ran 7th 33/1

13 Jun 26 Uttoxeter Daring Plan (IRE)T: Sue Gardner moogangetsknighted Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good · 10 ran 1st 22/1

13 May 26 Newton Abbot Moonlight Ballet (GB)T: Sue Gardner William Hill Mares' Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 10 ran 4th 22/1

14 Apr 26 Newton Abbot Gospel Moon (FR)T: Sue Gardner Newton Abbot Open Maiden NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 8 ran 7th 200/1

14 Apr 26 Newton Abbot Bredon Hill Dart (GB)T: Sue Gardner Newton Abbot Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 21.5f · Good · 9 ran PU 9/2

27 Mar 26 Fontwell I'm Wide Awake (GB)T: Sue Gardner England To Win Tonight 20/1 betstgeorge.com Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17.5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 3rd 40/1

27 Mar 26 Fontwell Daring Plan (IRE)T: Sue Gardner betstgeorge.com Top Prices On English Events Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 21.5f · Good To Soft · 5 ran 2nd 10/3

18 Mar 26 Hereford Daring Plan (IRE)T: Sue Gardner Richard Layton Charity Day 16th April Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 25f · Good · 7 ran 5th 7/2

17 Mar 26 Exeter Storming Nelson (IRE)T: Sue Gardner Oddschecker Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 5th 4/1F

17 Mar 26 Exeter Astronomic View (GB)T: Sue Gardner Oddschecker Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 21.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran PU 12/1

17 Mar 26 Exeter I'm Wide Awake (GB)T: Sue Gardner Oddschecker Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 6th 16/1

07 Mar 26 Hereford Saffron Belle (GB)T: Sue Gardner Hereford Easter Monday Family Fun Raceday Mares' Open Maiden NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 14 ran 12th 250/1

06 Mar 26 Exeter Storming Nelson (IRE)T: Sue Gardner Klargester Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 19f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 5th 15/2

25 Feb 26 Bangor-on-Dee Daring Plan (IRE)T: Sue Gardner Nightingale House Hospice Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 17.5f · Soft · 8 ran 3rd 7/2J

25 Feb 26 Bangor-on-Dee Astronomic View (GB)T: Sue Gardner Alfa Aggregates Products North Wales National Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 29.5f · Soft · 11 ran 6th 6/1

20 Feb 26 Ffos Las Ourbrowneyedgirl (IRE)T: Sue Gardner fairplaybet.co.uk Bet 10 Get 10 Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Heavy · 6 ran F 8/1

19 Feb 26 Huntingdon Prairie Queen (GB)T: Sue Gardner Experience Irish Racing With ITM Mares' Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19.5f · Heavy · 6 ran 5th 9/2

13 Feb 26 Chepstow Astronomic View (GB)T: Sue Gardner Fairplay Lets Bet On It! Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 23.5f · Soft · 11 ran 3rd 15/2

03 Feb 26 Taunton Ourbrowneyedgirl (IRE)T: Sue Gardner www.ledorneyvillascornwall.co.uk Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19f · Heavy · 10 ran 2nd 3/1

03 Feb 26 Taunton Storming Nelson (IRE)T: Sue Gardner 24 March Behind The Scenes Raceday Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 18f · Heavy · 8 ran 2nd 7/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 17 Oct 2026: fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 17 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Lucy Gardner's strike rate?: Lucy Gardner has won 77 of 986 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.8% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Lucy Gardner do best at?: Uttoxeter by strike rate: 4 wins from 37 rides (10.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Lucy Gardner ride most for?: Sue Gardner, with 946 rides since 2008 — 96% of the total. That pairing has won 77 (8.1%).
What is Lucy Gardner's Fair A/E?: 0.96, from 986 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.