Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 30 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.82).
Deterministic profile computed from 148 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 27 Oct 2026
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−4.7
n=25 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −25.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.7
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.7
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.7
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.7
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
When favourite
40%
n=5 · A/E 1.14 · £1 +1.38
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−4.7
n=27 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −27.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Off a 31-60-day break9.7% vs 4.7% · n=31
In Class 68.3% vs 4.7% · n=72
With a new jockey booking1.3% vs 4.7% · n=77
In Class 52.2% vs 4.7% · n=45
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat9766.2%−42.29
Hurdle3313%−29.00
NH Flat1200%−12.00
Chase600%−6.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)7045.7%−48.62
Good3512.9%−6.00
Good to Soft19210.5%−10.67
Soft1500%−15.00
Good to Firm500%−5.00
Heavy400%−4.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Southwell (AW)3725.4%−30.62
Fakenham1000%−10.00
Huntingdon1000%−10.00
Lingfield (AW)9111.1%−2.50
Warwick900%−9.00
Kempton (AW)800%−8.00
Wolverhampton (AW)800%−8.00
Southwell700%−7.00
Newcastle (AW)5120%+3.50
Bath5240%+28.33
Yarmouth500%−5.00
Doncaster400%−4.00
Windsor400%−4.00
Market Rasen400%−4.00
Uttoxeter300%−3.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 67268.3%−17.29
Class 54512.2%−41.00
Class 42800%−28.00
Class 3300%−3.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite5240%1.14+1.38
2nd–3rd fav16425%1.57+7.33
4th–6th fav4600%0.00−46.00
7th+ in betting8111.2%0.62−52.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m5535.5%−35.67
1m2f – 1m4f5435.6%−18.62
2m1f – 2m4f2015%−16.00
2m5f – 3m700%−7.00
1m – 1m1f700%−7.00
Over 3m400%−4.00
Under 6f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20224524.4%−34.17
20232827.1%−21.62
20243326.1%+4.50
20252100%−21.00
20262114.8%−17.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps9266.5%−37.29
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners6457.8%−38.29
11-13 runners4324.7%−10.00
5-7 runners2700%−27.00
14-16 runners800%−8.00
2-4 runners400%−4.00
17+ runners200%−2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 26 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 26 horses listed, 13 arrived from another yard in our archive; 13 had their first archived run for this yard.
4 have since run for another yard; 22 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
500151600011000
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Different Drum (GB) — Ladies Night 4th July Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle (Div 2) Carlisle · Apr 2026 · Class 5
£3,829
Hard Toffee (IRE) — Book Tickets At chelmsfordcityracecourse.com Handicap (Div 1) Chelmsford City (AW) · Dec 2018 · Class 6
£3,493
Bond Spirit (GB) — Betuk Over 40,000 Live Streamed Races Classified Stakes Southwell (AW) · Jan 2023 · Class 6
Progeny have won 9.4% of 1,800 runs since 2008 (157 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 14.7% from 278. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.3% from 207.
Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,849 runs since 2008 (785 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 27 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 370 · newest first
The latest 50 of 370 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 18 February 2005 to 6 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Louise Allan's strike rate?
Louise Allan has won 7 of 148 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 4.7% (as at 27 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Louise Allan do best at?
Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 2 wins from 37 runners (5.4%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Louise Allan's Fair A/E?
0.82, from 148 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Louise Allan·SR 4.7%·A/E 0.82
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