What is Tony Carroll's strike rate?

Tony Carroll has won 525 of 4,929 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 10.7% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Tony Carroll do best at?

Lingfield by strike rate: 11 wins from 55 runners (20%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Tony Carroll?

Jack Doughty, with 725 runners since 2022 — 15% of the total. That pairing has won 93 (12.8%).

Is Tony Carroll in form?

In the last 14 days: 30 runners, 1 winner, a strike rate of 3.3%. That is below the baseline of 10.7% since 2022.

What is Tony Carroll's Fair A/E?

1.03, from 4,903 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Tony Carroll

4,929 runners in the last 5 seasons · 327 individual horses

As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 7.8% of 1,258 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 20 Oct 2026.

Last runner yesterday 98% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

525–4,929

Wins / Runs

10.7%

Strike rate

n=4,929

1,458 (30%)

Placed

1.03

Fair A/E

n=4,903 · 0.89 incl. margin

−990.08

£1 level stake

n=4,929 at SP · −20.1%

£4.39m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

12.5%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 990 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 11% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.03). The yard is quiet just now — 1 winner in the last fortnight, below its own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 4,929 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires May–Jun 35% when favourite Jack Doughty: 12.8% from 725 Claiming riders: 11% Sends off the favourite in 9% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Lingfield (20%, n=55), clear of the yard's 10.7% baseline. Debutants struggle at 0% (n=64, Fair A/E 0.00). Right now the yard is in a quiet spell: 1 from 30 runners in the last 14 days (3.3%, 7.4pts below the 10.7% baseline). Jack Doughty rides 15% of the entries and edges the yard's average (12.8% vs 10.7%, A/E 1.06) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (20.1%, n=374). 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Investec Specialist Bank 'Dash' at Epsom Downs (Jun 2014, £62,250). The stable star of the record: Pour La Victoire (IRE) — 17 wins from 114 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires May–Jun.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.7% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

5.4%−5.3

n=551 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −205.25

New recruits · first run for the yard

8.8%−1.9

n=170 · A/E 1.39 · £1 −4.00

Debutants · first career start

0%−10.7

n=64 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −64.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

5.1%−5.6

n=59 · A/E 0.66 · £1 −36.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

12%+1.3

n=242 · A/E 1.27 · £1 −37.59

When favourite

35%

n=429 · A/E 1.18 · £1 +6.70

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

11%+0.3

n=1,476 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −338.13

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−10.7

n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 20% vs 10.7% · n=520

Off a 0-7-day break 20.1% vs 10.7% · n=374

With Rossa Ryan 18.9% vs 10.7% · n=243

With debutants 0% vs 10.7% · n=64

At Lingfield 20% vs 10.7% · n=55

With Myla Coppins 18.3% vs 10.7% · n=131

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 4,806 518 10.8% −962.02

Hurdle 100 5 5% −67.06

Chase 20 2 10% +42.00

NH Flat 3 0 0% −3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 2,794 272 9.7% −768.91

Good to Firm 794 117 14.7% +65.46

Good 707 65 9.2% −152.05

Good to Soft 287 25 8.7% −77.52

Soft 217 25 11.5% −38.45

Heavy 69 9 13% −20.44

Firm 61 12 19.7% +1.83

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 1,174 119 10.1% −340.35

Brighton 573 72 12.6% −184.42

Lingfield (AW) 559 58 10.4% −151.83

Southwell (AW) 404 39 9.7% −63.26

Kempton (AW) 381 22 5.8% −149.17

Bath 271 39 14.4% −25.15

Windsor 235 31 13.2% +69.96

Chelmsford City (AW) 199 21 10.6% −54.68

Chepstow 186 16 8.6% −40.80

Leicester 160 22 13.8% +61.25

Newcastle (AW) 77 13 16.9% −9.62

Goodwood 68 5 7.4% −30.30

Nottingham 68 7 10.3% −12.25

Ffos Las 59 9 15.3% −7.07

Lingfield 55 11 20% +36.01

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 3,030 341 11.3% −609.39

Class 5 1,168 121 10.4% −370.90

Class 4 558 43 7.7% −75.29

Class 3 95 12 12.6% +51.00

Class 2 76 8 10.5% +16.50

Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 506 169 33.4% 1.18 +4.57

2nd–3rd fav 1,040 171 16.4% 0.98 −155.65

4th–6th fav 1,625 126 7.8% 0.92 −422.50

7th+ in betting 1,758 59 3.4% 1.04 −416.50

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Under Curfew (GB)from Jedd O'Keeffe 70 3 22 12 May 26

Poetic Force (IRE)from Jonathan Portman 68 9 26 4 Apr 26

Neptune Legend (IRE)from Hugo Palmer 67 9 19 13 Oct 26

River Wharfe (GB)from David Simcock 64 9 19 24 Aug 26

Autumn Angel (IRE)from John Quinn 64 6 26 16 Jul 26

Lequinto (IRE)from Daniel William O'Sullivan 63 9 23 2 Oct 26

Voltaic (GB)from Bernard Llewellyn 60 6 23 19 Aug 25

Kondratiev Wave (IRE)from Kieran P Cotter 59 5 27 5 Oct 26

Mumayaz (IRE)from Mark Loughnane 59 8 28 21 Sep 26

Recon Mission (IRE)from M D O'Callaghan 56 3 19 8 Oct 26

Second Collection (GB) 55 5 18 16 Mar 26

Moon Over The Sea (GB)from John Quinn 50 10 25 1 Jun 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 327 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 25 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 46 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Hugo Palmer (2) and John Quinn (2); 14 had their first archived run for this yard.

3 have since run for another yard; 57 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Quiet spell

1 from 30 3.3% · −7.4pts vs baseline

Last 14 days3.3%

5-season base10.7%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

12119101313101189811

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderJack Doughty

15% of all rides
12.8% SR · A/E 1.06

RiderRWSR£1

Jack Doughty 725 93 12.8% −160.71

William Carson 603 61 10.1% −160.04

Mollie Phillips 342 30 8.8% −86.90

Luke Morris 274 25 9.1% −79.00

Rossa Ryan 243 46 18.9% −45.66

Molly Gunn 236 21 8.9% −19.77

Clifford Lee 176 24 13.6% +32.54

Jason Watson 147 19 12.9% +23.29

Myla Coppins 131 24 18.3% +8.51

Marco Ghiani 124 16 12.9% −21.05

Matthew Lloyd Slater 112 12 10.7% −19.45

Miss Sarah Bowen 102 8 7.8% −62.70

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

1,533

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£10.6m

Prize money

2025

Best season · 130 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Caspian Prince (IRE) — Investec Specialist Bank 'Dash' (Heritage Handicap) Epsom Downs · Jun 2014 · Class 2

£62,250

Recon Mission (IRE) — Pavers Foundation Catherine Memorial Sprint Handicap York · Jun 2019 · Class 2

£62,250

Boom The Groom (IRE) — Symphony Group Stakes (Handicap) York · Aug 2016 · Class 2

£40,463

Notable horses

Pour La Victoire (IRE) Poetic Force (IRE) Ocean Legend (IRE) Baltic Prince (IRE) Lequinto (IRE) Boom The Groom (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kodiac (GB) 9.3% · 19–205

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,534 runs since 2008 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 252.

Lope De Vega (IRE) 9% · 13–145

Progeny have won 13.8% of 12,150 runs since 2008 (1,099 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.3% from 953.

Dragon Pulse (IRE) 7% · 9–128

Progeny have won 8.9% of 4,260 runs since 2008 (320 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.3% from 570. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5% from 363.

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 11.1% · 13–117

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,816 runs since 2008 (1,573 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 843.

Outstrip (GB) 8.7% · 9–104

Progeny have won 8.8% of 3,273 runs since 2008 (239 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 12.8% from 631. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.7% from 263.

Dark Angel (IRE) 8.3% · 8–96

Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,876 runs since 2008 (1,594 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 16,419 · newest first

The latest 50 of 16,419 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 19 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

19 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) North View (GB)J: Molly Gunn bettingsites.co.uk Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 40/1

19 Oct 26 Bath Emporess (IRE)J: Myla Coppins Big Stage Hire Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 8th 28/1

17 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Royal Jet (GB)J: Molly Gunn Saturday 24th October Gents Night Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 40/1

16 Oct 26 Haydock Charlie Mason (GB)J: Rossa Ryan Shape Engineering Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Heavy · 14 ran 2nd 7/1

16 Oct 26 Haydock Secret Mistral (GB)J: Myla Coppins Weatherbys Stallion Book Handicap StakesClass 3 · 5f · Heavy · 14 ran 13th 22/1

15 Oct 26 Brighton Nutcracker (GB)J: Tom Marquand Position Payout At bet365 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good · 13 ran 7th 9/1

15 Oct 26 Brighton Rock Master (IRE)J: Jack Doughty Position Payout At bet365 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good · 13 ran 5th 33/1

15 Oct 26 Brighton Celebrating Ethel (IRE)J: Myla Coppins Bet Boost At bet365 Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 10f · Good · 11 ran 10th 16/1

15 Oct 26 Brighton Delusional (IRE)J: Tom Marquand Bet Boost At bet365 Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 10f · Good · 11 ran 8th 16/1

15 Oct 26 Brighton Fitzmaurice (IRE)J: Jack Doughty Bet Boost At bet365 Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 10f · Good · 9 ran 7th 28/1

15 Oct 26 Brighton Stock Market (GB)J: Myla Coppins Racing Value At bet365 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good · 9 ran 5th 3/1J

14 Oct 26 Nottingham Son Of Astar (GB)J: David Probert Racedays For £9 At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 5th 7/1

14 Oct 26 Nottingham Far Far Out (IRE)J: Luke Morris Conference And Events At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 5 · 8.5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 4th 80/1

13 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Thestral (GB)J: William Carson Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 28/1

13 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Neptune Legend (IRE)J: Billy Loughnane Cavani Champion Style Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 13/2

13 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Homme De Fer (GB)J: Molly Gunn Download The Raceday Ready App Apprentice Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 4th 3/1F

13 Oct 26 Leicester Foreseen (GB)J: Jack Doughty Happy 80th Reg Ling Handicap StakesClass 3 · 7f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 1st 28/1

13 Oct 26 Leicester Francesi (IRE)J: Myla Coppins Christmas Parties At Leicester Racecourse Book Now Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 3rd 10/1

13 Oct 26 Leicester Hk Fourteen (IRE)J: Tom Marquand Join Racing TV Now Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good To Soft · 18 ran 14th 16/1

12 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Pop Dancer (IRE)J: Rossa Ryan Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 10th 40/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Tony Carroll's strike rate?: Tony Carroll has won 525 of 4,929 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 10.7% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Tony Carroll do best at?: Lingfield by strike rate: 11 wins from 55 runners (20%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Tony Carroll?: Jack Doughty, with 725 runners since 2022 — 15% of the total. That pairing has won 93 (12.8%).
Is Tony Carroll in form?: In the last 14 days: 30 runners, 1 winner, a strike rate of 3.3%. That is below the baseline of 10.7% since 2022.
What is Tony Carroll's Fair A/E?: 1.03, from 4,903 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.