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Jockey profile

Mark Nicolls

434 rides in our archive record, 2005–2007 · 214 individual horses
As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride Dec 2007 100% of rides over jumps
Archive record 2005–2007
No rides from 1 Jan 2008, where our aggregate statistics normally begin — showing the full archive record instead, 3 Jan 2005 to 2 Dec 2007. Figures that need a horse's earlier runs (debuts, time since a run, first-time headgear, new connections, last-time-out winners) are left out: for runs this early our archive cannot see what came before.
17–434
Wins / Runs
3.9%
Strike rate
n=434
73 (17%)
Placed
0.76
Fair A/E
n=432 · 0.65 incl. margin
−267.50
£1 level stake
n=434 at SP · −61.6%
£152k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Rider Profile

Rode 434 times in our archive record (2005–2007), almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across that record (Fair A/E 0.76).

Deterministic profile computed from 434 archived runs (archive record 2005–2007) · updated 6 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fired Feb–Mar Claiming: 4.2%
The read

The market has consistently overbet rides in big fields of 14 or more: 2.1% strike, Fair A/E 0.55 and −85.00 to a £1 stake over 142 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. The rider also read well on Soft going (8.6%, n=70) and in Class 3 (7.6%, n=79). The record read poorly on Good to Firm going — 0.9% over 107 rides, 3pts below the baseline. Seasonally, the rider fired Feb–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 3.9% baseline
When favourite
0%
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
4.2%+0.3
n=401 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −234.50
Big fields · 14+ runners
2.1%−1.8
n=142 · A/E 0.55 · £1 −85.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−3.9
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. Tiles that depend on a horse's earlier runs (debuts, time off, first-time headgear, new connections, last-time-out winners) are not shown on an archive-era record: for runs this early our archive cannot see what came before.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With Ben Case 14.7% vs 3.9% · n=34
On Soft going 8.6% vs 3.9% · n=70
With John Upson 8.3% vs 3.9% · n=48
In Class 3 7.6% vs 3.9% · n=79
On Good to Firm going 0.9% vs 3.9% · n=107
With Kim Bailey 0% vs 3.9% · n=35
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 234 8 3.4% −136.50
Chase 153 6 3.9% −110.00
NH Flat 47 3 6.4% −21.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 147 6 4.1% −84.00
Good to Firm 107 1 0.9% −92.00
Good to Soft 85 1 1.2% −80.00
Soft 70 6 8.6% −15.50
Heavy 20 3 15% +9.00
Standard (AW) 3 0 0% −3.00
Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Hereford 41 2 4.9% +8.00
Towcester 39 1 2.6% −31.50
Uttoxeter 35 2 5.7% −17.00
Worcester 30 0 0% −30.00
Stratford 30 1 3.3% −15.00
Huntingdon 21 0 0% −21.00
Ludlow 19 2 10.5% −4.00
Warwick 17 2 11.8% +1.00
Bangor-on-Dee 17 1 5.9% −5.00
Chepstow 17 0 0% −17.00
Fakenham 16 2 12.5% −9.00
Newton Abbot 16 0 0% −16.00
Leicester 15 0 0% −15.00
Southwell 12 0 0% −12.00
Taunton 12 1 8.3% −7.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 238 8 3.4% −147.50
Class 3 79 6 7.6% −29.00
Class 5 68 1 1.5% −64.00
Class 6 37 2 5.4% −15.00
Class 2 8 0 0% −8.00
Class 1 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 8 0 0% 0.00 −8.00
2nd–3rd fav 38 7 18.4% 1.22 −1.00
4th–6th fav 117 7 6% 0.86 −51.50
7th+ in betting 271 3 1.1% 0.44 −207.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
76% completed · 387 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 153 66% 5 2 44 0 1
Hurdle 234 82.5% 7 4 30 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Strong Magic (IRE) 9 1 4 20 Oct 06
Metal Detector (IRE) 8 0 3 5 Jul 06
Abraham Smith (GB) 8 1 2 6 Mar 06
Business Traveller (IRE) 7 1 2 15 Oct 06
La Marette (GB) 7 1 2 19 May 06
Auditor (GB) 7 0 0 20 Apr 06
The River Joker (IRE) 7 0 1 9 Mar 06
Reach The Clouds (IRE) 6 0 0 22 Mar 06
Witness Time (IRE) 6 0 1 31 Dec 05
Olympian Time (GB) 6 0 0 17 Nov 05
Regal River (IRE) 5 0 1 11 Oct 06
Blues Story (FR) 5 0 2 24 Apr 06
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 214 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, 2005–2007
JFMAMJJASOND
05104100000227
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardJohn Upson
11% of all rides
8.3% SR · A/E 1.28
TrainerRWSR£1
John Upson 48 4 8.3% −20.00
John Allen 42 2 4.8% −15.00
Kim Bailey 35 0 0% −35.00
Ben Case 34 5 14.7% +13.00
John Cornwall 31 1 3.2% −27.00
Simon Lewis 30 0 0% −30.00
Paul Webber 30 2 6.7% −18.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
17
Archived wins
£152k
Prize money
2005
Best season · 9 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. On this page the header statistics and this card both count from the archive floor (2005), so they agree.
Blunham Hill (IRE) — Sodexho Prestige Handicap Chase Haydock · Dec 2005 · Class 3
£8,581
Strong Magic (IRE) — Rex Carter Memorial Handicap Chase Fakenham · Oct 2005 · Class 4
£6,907
Blunham Hill (IRE) — Totesport.com Handicap Chase Uttoxeter · Feb 2006 · Class 3
£6,286
Notable horses
Blunham Hill (IRE) Strong Magic (IRE) Abraham Smith (GB) Business Traveller (IRE) La Marette (GB) Gritti Palace (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Over The River (FR) 15.8% · 3–19
Progeny have won 8.1% of 553 runs since 2005 (60 horses). Strongest on Good going: 11.9% from 151. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 11.1% from 243. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5% from 120.
Lord Americo (IRE) 6.7% · 1–15
Progeny have won 7.5% of 4,424 runs since 2005 (444 horses).
Treasure Hunter (GB) 0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 7.4% of 297 runs since 2005 (29 horses). Weakest on Good going: 1.9% from 104.
Bob Back (USA) 11.1% · 1–9
Progeny have won 11.4% of 5,246 runs since 2005 (458 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14.8% from 461.
Karinga Bay (GB) 22.2% · 2–9
Progeny have won 10.2% of 4,134 runs since 2005 (396 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.4% from 449.
Strong Gale (IRE) 11.1% · 1–9
Progeny have won 6% of 117 runs since 2005 (27 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2005, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 434 · newest first

The latest 50 of 434 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 2 December 2007.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
02 Dec 07 Leicester He's My Man (IRE)T: John Cornwall ladbrokes.com Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 16f · Good To Soft · 9 ran UR 50/1
29 Nov 07 Uttoxeter Buckingham Boys (GB)T: Paul Webber Cornwallis Co (NW) Beginners' ChaseClass 4 · 22.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran PU 40/1
25 Nov 07 Towcester The Chisholm (IRE)T: A Ennis gg.com Tipzone Intermediate Open NH Flat RaceClass 4 · 16f · Soft · 16 ran 12th 100/1
25 Nov 07 Towcester Spendent Spree (GB)T: A Ennis gg.com Tipzone Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 21f · Soft · 17 ran PU 80/1
25 Nov 07 Towcester Watch Out (GB)T: Gerald Ham gg.com Novices' Selling HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Soft · 11 ran 3rd 16/1
24 Nov 07 Ascot Castlemaine Vic (IRE)T: A Ennis Tabac Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 3 · 15.5f · Good · 11 ran 9th 50/1
19 Nov 07 Leicester Aviemore (GB)T: John Cornwall Burton Overy Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 10th 100/1
18 Nov 07 Fontwell Clande Boye (IRE)T: S J Gilmore Mike Brogan's 30th Birthday Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 21.5f · Good · 9 ran PU 25/1
15 Nov 07 Ludlow Buckingham Boys (GB)T: Paul Webber Severn Maiden HurdleClass 4 · 21f · Good · 5 ran 5th 40/1
14 Nov 07 Lingfield (AW) Gobejolly (GB)T: Ben Case Lingfield Park For Weddings Intermediate Open NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 16f · Standard · 9 ran 5th 9/1
14 Nov 07 Lingfield Spendent Spree (GB)T: A Ennis Jumping Here Again On The 28th Mares Only Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 16.5f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 6th 25/1
11 Nov 07 Hereford Thistle (GB)T: Gerald Ham Magenta Maiden HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Firm · 9 ran 4th 6/1
02 Nov 07 Uttoxeter Red Birr (IRE)T: Paul Webber BDO Business Restructuring Maiden HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good To Firm · 13 ran 6th 8/1
02 Nov 07 Uttoxeter Uncle Lionel (GB)T: S J Gilmore keltruck.com 'National Hunt' Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Good To Firm · 11 ran F 66/1
21 Oct 07 Hereford More Trouble (IRE)T: Paul Webber Lindley Catering Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 25.5f · Good To Firm · 13 ran UR 14/1
18 Oct 07 Ludlow Miss O'Murchu (GB)T: Ben Case Welcome Back To Ludlow Mares' Only Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 21f · Good To Firm · 11 ran F 100/1
10 Oct 07 Towcester That's An Honour (IRE)T: Ben Case Jewson Novices' Hurdle Race (Qualifier)Class 3 · 16f · Good · 12 ran 3rd 20/1
07 Oct 07 Uttoxeter Vulcan's Ash (GB)T: S J Gilmore Scott Wilson Novices' Chase (For the Royal Mercian & Lancastrian Yeomanry Challenge Cup)Class 3 · 21f · Good To Firm · 5 ran 4th 66/1
06 Oct 07 Fontwell Watch Out (GB)T: Gerald Ham sportingindex.com/racing Juvenile Maiden HurdleClass 4 · 17.5f · Good To Firm · 13 ran 8th 100/1
30 Sep 07 Market Rasen Millenium Mag (FR)T: F Jordan TurfTV A Matter of Course Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 17f · Good · 15 ran 8th 28/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Mark Nicolls's strike rate?
Mark Nicolls has won 17 of 434 rides between 2005 and 2007, a strike rate of 3.9% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive. Our archive begins in 2005, so anything earlier is not counted.
Which course does Mark Nicolls do best at?
Uttoxeter by strike rate: 2 wins from 35 rides (5.7%) between 2005 and 2007. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Mark Nicolls's Fair A/E?
0.76, from 432 rides with a computed fair probability between 2005 and 2007. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 6 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008). This profile has no runs from 2008, so every figure on this page counts from the start of the archive instead.