What is Kim Bailey's strike rate?

Kim Bailey has won 108 of 734 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 14.7% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Kim Bailey do best at?

Worcester by strike rate: 7 wins from 31 runners (22.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Kim Bailey?

David Bass, with 407 runners since 2022 — 55% of the total. That pairing has won 56 (13.8%).

What is Kim Bailey's Fair A/E?

1.04, from 733 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Kim Bailey

734 runners in the last 5 seasons · 121 individual horses

As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Dec 2024 97% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

108–734

Wins / Runs

14.7%

Strike rate

n=734

257 (35%)

Placed

1.04

Fair A/E

n=733 · 0.90 incl. margin

−138.66

£1 level stake

n=734 at SP · −18.9%

£1.65m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

13.3%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 150 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 15% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.04). Horses in first-time headgear strike at 18% (44 runs, true-first definition).

Deterministic profile computed from 734 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 15 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Oct–Nov Fresh horses: 17.4% 34.4% when favourite David Bass: 13.8% from 407 Claiming riders: 17.3% Sends off the favourite in 13% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Worcester (22.6%, n=31), clear of the yard's 14.7% baseline. A horse in first-time headgear has been a positive signal at 18.2% (n=44, Fair A/E 1.24). David Bass rides 55% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (13.8%, A/E 0.94). The yard also reads well off a break of 180+ days (23.9%, n=117). The record reads poorly off a 8-14-day break — 5.3% over 38 runners, 9.4pts below the baseline. 27 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Fleur De Lys Chase at Lingfield (Jan 2022, £79,725). The stable star of the record: First Flow (IRE) — 12 wins from 28 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Oct–Nov.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 14.7% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

17.4%+2.7

n=236 · A/E 1.27 · £1 −15.02

New recruits · first run for the yard

23.5%+8.8

n=17 · A/E 1.34 · £1 −4.50

Debutants · first career start

16.7%+2.0

n=48 · A/E 1.19 · £1 −6.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

18.2%+3.5

n=44 · A/E 1.24 · £1 +13.49

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

15.4%+0.7

n=13 · A/E 1.97 · £1 +13.50

When favourite

34.4%

n=93 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −10.74

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

17.3%+2.6

n=52 · A/E 1.28 · £1 +1.33

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

3.7%−11.0

n=27 · A/E 0.35 · £1 −21.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 14.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Off a break of 180+ days 23.9% vs 14.7% · n=117

On last-time-out winners 22.7% vs 14.7% · n=110

Off a 8-14-day break 5.3% vs 14.7% · n=38

With Tom Bellamy 22.4% vs 14.7% · n=58

With Kai Lenihan 22.9% vs 14.7% · n=35

At Worcester 22.6% vs 14.7% · n=31

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 427 62 14.5% −102.97

Chase 232 38 16.4% +0.96

NH Flat 51 7 13.7% −17.15

Flat 24 1 4.2% −19.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 230 32 13.9% −68.26

Good to Soft 222 33 14.9% −49.16

Soft 196 33 16.8% +15.47

Heavy 57 6 10.5% −19.00

Good to Firm 16 4 25% −4.71

Standard (AW) 13 0 0% −13.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Ludlow 51 10 19.6% −12.41

Exeter 48 6 12.5% −15.31

Chepstow 47 7 14.9% −19.12

Huntingdon 47 7 14.9% −3.37

Uttoxeter 42 5 11.9% −8.52

Warwick 37 6 16.2% +12.50

Taunton 37 5 13.5% −12.45

Ffos Las 36 8 22.2% −9.57

Worcester 31 7 22.6% +28.33

Hereford 28 2 7.1% −3.50

Cheltenham 28 4 14.3% +0.10

Market Rasen 27 6 22.2% +8.71

Southwell 25 1 4% −22.50

Ascot 25 6 24% −3.12

Wetherby 23 2 8.7% −12.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 303 46 15.2% −71.10

Class 5 204 26 12.7% −32.67

Class 3 120 24 20% −17.32

Class 2 53 8 15.1% +13.18

Class 1 48 4 8.3% −24.75

Class 6 6 0 0% −6.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 118 38 32.2% 0.96 −13.74

2nd–3rd fav 214 46 21.5% 1.22 +32.08

4th–6th fav 253 21 8.3% 0.97 −61.00

7th+ in betting 149 3 2% 0.60 −96.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

80.9% completed · 659 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 232 72% 12 5 47 1 0

Hurdle 427 85.7% 6 5 50 0 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Gerard Mentor (FR)then Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls 29 5 9 28 Nov 24

Shantou Express (IRE)then Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls 24 3 5 25 Nov 24

Samatian (IRE) 21 1 8 19 Oct 24

Faerie Cutlass (GB)then Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls 16 2 9 13 Dec 24

Lady Gwen (GB)from Jane Williams · then Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls 15 3 7 15 Nov 24

Two For Gold (IRE)then Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls 14 2 5 21 Dec 24

Percy Veering (GB)then Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls 14 3 5 27 Nov 24

Does He Know (GB)then Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls 13 3 3 14 Dec 24

Destroytheevidence (GB)then Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls 13 4 9 14 Dec 24

Bobhopeornohope (IRE)then Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls 13 2 4 13 Dec 24

Parc D'amour (IRE)then Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls 13 3 7 2 Jul 24

Hurlerontheditch (IRE)from Michael G Kennedy 12 2 7 29 Dec 24

The 60 most-raced of 121 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 7 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Declan Queally (2); 53 had their first archived run for this yard.

33 have since run for another yard, most often for Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls (29) and Mel Rowley (2); 27 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

612111113142078262612

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderDavid Bass

55% of all rides
13.8% SR · A/E 0.94

RiderRWSR£1

David Bass 407 56 13.8% −63.85

Ciaran Gethings 120 15 12.5% −45.24

Tom Bellamy 58 13 22.4% −9.07

Kai Lenihan 35 8 22.9% +11.33

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

670

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£7.02m

Prize money

2014

Best season · 55 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Two For Gold (IRE) — Fleur De Lys Chase (GBB Race) Lingfield · Jan 2022 · Class 2

£79,725

Chianti Classico (IRE) — Ultima Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Mar 2024 · Class 1

£70,338

First Flow (IRE) — Matchbook Betting Exchange Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Ascot · Jan 2021 · Grade 1

£59,513

Notable horses

First Flow (IRE) Two For Gold (IRE) Sunblazer (IRE) Blazon (GB) Rocky's Treasure (IRE) Does He Know (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Getaway (GER) 7.9% · 5–63

Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,898 runs since 2008 (1,025 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.7% from 131.

Shantou (USA) 25% · 10–40

Progeny have won 13.6% of 7,816 runs since 2008 (539 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 20.3% from 158.

Telescope (IRE) 19.4% · 6–31

Progeny have won 8.4% of 1,887 runs since 2008 (295 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 1.9% from 104. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13.3% from 278.

Policy Maker (IRE) 17.2% · 5–29

Progeny have won 8.9% of 1,241 runs since 2008 (143 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 4.6% from 197. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 4.8% from 125.

Sageburg (IRE) 3.4% · 1–29

Progeny have won 10% of 3,469 runs since 2008 (414 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.4% from 389. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 2.4% from 293. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13.4% from 351.

Black Sam Bellamy (IRE) 7.4% · 2–27

Progeny have won 10.3% of 4,681 runs since 2008 (466 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 145.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 4,690 · newest first

The latest 50 of 4,690 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 5 January 2005 to 31 December 2024.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

31 Dec 24 Warwick Amazing Cleni (FR)J: Ciaran Gethings Happy New Year From Poundland Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Soft · 12 ran 4th 33/1

31 Dec 24 Uttoxeter Seatoit (IRE)J: James Bowen QuinnBet Daily Free Bet Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 23.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 4th 9/2

30 Dec 24 Haydock Broomfield Present (IRE)J: Tom Bellamy Betfred Goals Galore Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 25.5f · Soft · 6 ran F 8/1

29 Dec 24 Doncaster Hurlerontheditch (IRE)J: Tom Bellamy Download The At The Races App Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 3 ran 1st 9/4

27 Dec 24 Wetherby Campaign Trail (IRE)J: Tom Bellamy William Hill More Top Prices Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 2)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 3rd 2/5F

26 Dec 24 Kempton El Rio (IRE)J: Tom Bellamy Ladbrokes Best Odds Guaranteed On Racing Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 20.5f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 11/1

21 Dec 24 Ascot Two For Gold (IRE)J: Jonathan Burke Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 24f · Good To Soft · 8 ran PU 22/1

21 Dec 24 Ascot Trelawne (GB)J: Tom Bellamy Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 24f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 4th 4/1

21 Dec 24 Hereford Salt Rock (GB)J: Ben Jones Book Your Fishing Trips With DragonBet Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 1st 9/2

20 Dec 24 Uttoxeter Heros De Romay (FR)J: Tom Bellamy Willis Cooper Chartered Accountants Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 20f · Soft · 8 ran 6th 7/1

20 Dec 24 Uttoxeter English Willow (GB)J: Tom Bellamy Richard Winterton Auctioneers Mares' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 22f · Soft · 11 ran 3rd 8/1

19 Dec 24 Exeter Zmiinyi (IRE)J: Tom Bellamy Southwest Rail Solutions Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 19f · Good To Soft · 15 ran PU 13/2

18 Dec 24 Newbury The Edgar Wallace (IRE)J: Ciaran Gethings BetVictor Home Of The Lucky Dip Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 20f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 4th 9/1

18 Dec 24 Newbury Isle Of Gold (IRE)J: Ciaran Gethings Visit Warren Greatrex Racing At Rhonehurst EBF 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 3 · 20.5f · Soft · 8 ran 4th 25/1

18 Dec 24 Ludlow The Kemble Brewery (GB)J: Tom Bellamy Tanners Cava EBF 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 2nd 4/11F

14 Dec 24 Cheltenham Clondaw General (IRE)J: Jonathan Burke Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Registered As The Bristol Novices' Hurdle) (Grade 2) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 24f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 4th 9/2

14 Dec 24 Doncaster Does He Know (GB)J: Ciaran Gethings bet365 Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 2 · 24f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 4th 15/2

14 Dec 24 Cheltenham Destroytheevidence (GB)J: Jonathan Burke Josh Wyke Birthday Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 25.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 5th 7/1

13 Dec 24 Doncaster Faerie Cutlass (GB)J: Gavin Sheehan Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 24.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 3rd 11/2

13 Dec 24 Doncaster Bobhopeornohope (IRE)J: Gavin Sheehan Grace And Dotty Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 4th 6/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Kim Bailey's strike rate?: Kim Bailey has won 108 of 734 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 14.7% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Kim Bailey do best at?: Worcester by strike rate: 7 wins from 31 runners (22.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Kim Bailey?: David Bass, with 407 runners since 2022 — 55% of the total. That pairing has won 56 (13.8%).
What is Kim Bailey's Fair A/E?: 1.04, from 733 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.