Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 17.1% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
0%−17.1
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
20%+2.9
n=5 · A/E 1.67 · £1 +6.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
0%−17.1
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
When favourite
40%
n=5 · A/E 1.16 · £1 +0.35
Big fields · 14+ runners
33.3%+16.2
n=3 · A/E 2.49 · £1 +8.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 17.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Lingfield (AW)13430.8%+24.60
Kempton (AW)900%−9.00
Southwell (AW)6116.7%−2.75
Chelmsford City (AW)4125%+3.50
Wolverhampton (AW)300%−3.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 51417.1%+1.00
Class 6900%−9.00
Class 36116.7%+1.50
Class 44250%+8.75
Class 222100%+11.10
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite5240%1.16+0.35
2nd–3rd fav9111.1%0.73−1.50
4th–6th fav14214.3%1.65+6.50
7th+ in betting7114.3%4.19+8.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f17211.8%+7.50
1m – 1m1f800%−8.00
1m2f – 1m4f5360%+11.35
Under 6f5120%+2.50
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps28621.4%+20.35
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners18211.1%+4.50
5-7 runners9222.2%+3.75
11-13 runners400%−4.00
14-16 runners3133.3%+8.00
2-4 runners11100%+1.10
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 22 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
18200·········
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Sir Percy (GB) — Vodafone Derby Stakes (Group 1) Epsom Downs · Jun 2006 · Group 1
£740,695
Donativum (GB) — Tattersalls Timeform Million Newmarket · Oct 2008 · Class 2
£541,700
Pyledriver (GB) — Coral Coronation Cup (Group 1) (British Champions Series) Epsom Downs · Jun 2021 · Group 1
Progeny have won 12.1% of 6,284 runs since 2008 (703 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 9% from 608. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.6% from 184.
Progeny have won 8.3% of 2,628 runs since 2008 (160 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 11.7% from 179. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 11.5% from 253.
Progeny have won 9.9% of 3,706 runs since 2008 (243 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.9% from 640. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 290.
Fastnet Rock (AUS)0% · 0–2
Progeny have won 12.1% of 5,477 runs since 2008 (556 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 9% from 210.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 9,197 · newest first
The latest 50 of 9,197 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 4 January 2005 to 12 March 2022.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Martin Dwyer's strike rate?
Martin Dwyer has won 6 of 35 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 17.1% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Martin Dwyer's Fair A/E?
1.32, from 35 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Martin Dwyer·SR 17.1%·A/E 1.32
KTB
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