Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
8.3%+1.8
n=12 · A/E 2.01 · £1 −3.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
16.7%+10.2
n=6 · A/E 4.72 · £1 +2.50
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−6.5
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
When favourite
0%
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−6.5
n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With C&D winners12.5% vs 6.5% · n=40
At Lingfield (AW)12.1% vs 6.5% · n=33
Over 6f – 7f9.6% vs 6.5% · n=52
On Standard (AW) going8% vs 6.5% · n=75 · A/E 1.26
In Class 65.1% vs 6.5% · n=79 · A/E 0.71
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)7568%+0.50
Good to Firm800%−8.00
Good700%−7.00
Good to Soft100%−1.00
Soft100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Lingfield (AW)33412.1%+8.50
Kempton (AW)3026.7%+4.00
Brighton1000%−10.00
Chelmsford City (AW)800%−8.00
Lingfield500%−5.00
Southwell (AW)400%−4.00
Sandown100%−1.00
Newmarket100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 67945.1%−23.50
Class 59222.2%+11.00
Class 3200%−2.00
Class 4200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite400%0.00−4.00
2nd–3rd fav900%0.00−9.00
4th–6th fav40410%1.46+3.50
7th+ in betting3925.1%1.67−7.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f5259.6%+15.00
1m – 1m1f2000%−20.00
1m2f – 1m4f10110%−1.50
1m5f – 2m900%−9.00
Under 6f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20223812.6%−19.00
202328414.3%+20.00
20242613.8%−17.50
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps8067.5%−4.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners4449.1%−0.50
11-13 runners3525.7%−3.00
5-7 runners900%−9.00
14-16 runners400%−4.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 11 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 11 horses listed, 9 arrived from another yard in our archive; 2 had their first archived run for this yard.
5 have since run for another yard, most often for Stephanie Cassidy (5); 6 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
806025170000170
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Cativo Cavallino (GB) — Quantem Consulting Handicap (AWT) Lingfield (AW) · Jun 2010 · Class 4
£5,828
For Life (IRE) — Graybury Lane Handicap Lingfield (AW) · May 2009 · Class 4
£5,828
For Life (IRE) — HBLB Handicap Lingfield (AW) · Oct 2007 · Class 4
Progeny have won 9.9% of 3,706 runs since 2008 (243 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.9% from 640. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 290.
Exceed and Excel (AUS)8.3% · 1–12
Progeny have won 11.8% of 16,019 runs since 2008 (1,161 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 20.7% from 198. Weakest on Soft going: 7.9% from 1,194.
Progeny have won 11.4% of 5,797 runs since 2008 (678 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 336. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.2% from 249.
Progeny have won 10.7% of 4,261 runs since 2008 (268 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 6.2% from 356.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 1,058 · newest first
The latest 50 of 1,058 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 13 January 2005 to 4 September 2024.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is John E Long's strike rate?
John E Long has won 6 of 92 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 6.5% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does John E Long do best at?
Lingfield (AW) by strike rate: 4 wins from 33 runners (12.1%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is John E Long's Fair A/E?
0.99, from 92 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
John E Long·SR 6.5%·A/E 0.99
KTB
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