What is William Muir & Chris Grassick's strike rate?

William Muir & Chris Grassick has won 119 of 1,123 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 10.6% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does William Muir & Chris Grassick do best at?

Nottingham by strike rate: 9 wins from 39 runners (23.1%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for William Muir & Chris Grassick?

Lewis Edmunds, with 580 runners since 2022 — 52% of the total. That pairing has won 62 (10.7%).

Is William Muir & Chris Grassick in form?

In the last 14 days: 16 runners, 1 winner, a strike rate of 6.3%. That is below the baseline of 10.6% since 2022.

What is William Muir & Chris Grassick's Fair A/E?

0.98, from 1,117 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

William Muir & Chris Grassick

1,123 runners in the last 5 seasons · 121 individual horses

As at 3 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 7.2% of 277 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 3 Nov 2026.

Won yesterday Last runner yesterday 100% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2021→)

from 1 Jan 2022

119–1,123

Wins / Runs

10.6%

Strike rate

n=1,123

312 (28%)

Placed

0.98

Fair A/E

n=1,117 · 0.85 incl. margin

−288.61

£1 level stake

n=1,123 at SP · −25.7%

£2.69m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

8.5%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 220 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 11% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.98). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 13% off breaks of two months or more (128 runs). The yard is quiet just now — 1 winner in the last fortnight, below its own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 1,123 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 3 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires May–Jul Fresh horses: 12.5% 35.9% when favourite Lewis Edmunds: 10.7% from 580 Claiming riders: 12.3% Sends off the favourite in 8% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Nottingham (23.1%, n=39), clear of the yard's 10.6% baseline. Debutants struggle at 4.5% (n=88, Fair A/E 1.05). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 12.5% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.47 and +39.75 to a £1 stake over 128 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Right now the yard is in a quiet spell: 1 from 16 runners in the last 14 days (6.3%, 4.3pts below the 10.6% baseline). Lewis Edmunds rides 52% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (10.7%, A/E 1.01) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (27.8%, n=36) and over 1m5f – 2m (17.2%, n=64). The record reads poorly in Class 2 — 4.3% over 117 runners, 6.3pts below the baseline. 4 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes at Ascot (Jul 2022, £708,875). The stable star of the record: Caramay (GB) — 8 wins from 39 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires May–Jul.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.6% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

12.5%+1.9

n=128 · A/E 1.47 · £1 +39.75

New recruits · first run for the yard

0%−10.6

n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00

Debutants · first career start

4.5%−6.1

n=88 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −47.25

First-time headgear · true-first definition

7.1%−3.5

n=56 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −30.50

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

6.3%−4.3

n=16 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −4.00

When favourite

35.9%

n=92 · A/E 1.14 · £1 +1.51

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

12.3%+1.7

n=114 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −56.27

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

8%−2.6

n=25 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −1.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Off a 0-7-day break 27.8% vs 10.6% · n=36

At Nottingham 23.1% vs 10.6% · n=39

On last-time-out winners 16.9% vs 10.6% · n=118

In Class 2 4.3% vs 10.6% · n=117

Over 1m5f – 2m 17.2% vs 10.6% · n=64

With debutants 4.5% vs 10.6% · n=88

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 1,121 119 10.6% −286.61

Hurdle 2 0 0% −2.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 435 55 12.6% −79.09

Good 255 19 7.5% −79.47

Good to Firm 230 22 9.6% −62.56

Good to Soft 91 12 13.2% −13.84

Soft 88 10 11.4% −35.65

Heavy 20 1 5% −14.00

Firm 4 0 0% −4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton (AW) 144 15 10.4% −45.28

Wolverhampton (AW) 129 20 15.5% −26.36

Newbury 89 5 5.6% −14.50

Southwell (AW) 86 11 12.8% −6.05

Ffos Las 68 10 14.7% −11.64

Windsor 61 4 6.6% −32.50

Ascot 54 5 9.3% −15.05

Sandown 47 4 8.5% −8.00

Nottingham 39 9 23.1% +29.25

Lingfield (AW) 37 3 8.1% −3.00

Leicester 36 3 8.3% −21.33

Salisbury 34 2 5.9% −8.00

Bath 32 2 6.3% −19.50

Goodwood 31 2 6.5% −10.25

Chepstow 24 4 16.7% −7.97

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 341 39 11.4% −105.28

Class 4 270 26 9.6% −62.43

Class 6 235 34 14.5% −21.14

Class 3 135 13 9.6% −44.26

Class 2 117 5 4.3% −54.00

Class 1 25 2 8% −1.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 107 36 33.6% 1.12 −0.66

2nd–3rd fav 271 41 15.1% 0.88 −63.95

4th–6th fav 394 35 8.9% 1.12 +1.00

7th+ in betting 351 7 2% 0.62 −225.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Ebt's Guard (GB) 41 4 22 28 Oct 26

Caramay (GB) 39 8 13 10 Jun 26

Mitrosonfire (GB)from William Muir 30 2 9 31 Jan 25

Starproof (IRE) 29 4 9 1 Dec 25

Stockpyle (GB)then Sam England 25 4 7 21 Oct 24

Mrs Twig (IRE) 23 4 5 29 Oct 25

Snapcracklepop (GB)then Gemma Tutty 23 3 8 16 Sep 24

Morte Point (GB) 21 5 7 13 Oct 26

Top Secret (GB)from Clive Cox 20 3 7 6 Nov 24

So Sleepy (GB) 20 2 7 4 Sep 24

Swayze (GB)from Martyn Meade 20 3 6 9 Sep 23

Captain Cairney (GB) 18 3 9 2 Nov 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 121 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 7 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 8 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from William Muir (4) and Tom Dascombe (2); 52 had their first archived run for this yard.

12 have since run for another yard; 48 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Quiet spell

1 from 16 6.3% · −4.3pts vs baseline

Last 14 days6.3%

5-season base10.6%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

52661212121310891112

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderLewis Edmunds

52% of all rides
10.7% SR · A/E 1.01

RiderRWSR£1

Lewis Edmunds 580 62 10.7% −137.30

P J McDonald 40 6 15% +14.00

Callum Shepherd 30 3 10% −12.40

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2021→

152

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£3.26m

Prize money

2021

Best season · 34 wins

Pyledriver (GB) — King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) Ascot · Jul 2022 · Group 1

£708,875

Pyledriver (GB) — Coral Coronation Cup (Group 1) (British Champions Series) Epsom Downs · Jun 2021 · Group 1

£187,143

Pyledriver (GB) — Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) Ascot · Jun 2023 · Group 2

£141,775

Notable horses

Caramay (GB) Mitrosonfire (GB) Top Secret (GB) Morte Point (GB) Ebt's Guard (GB) Starproof (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Lethal Force (IRE) 14.3% · 10–70

Progeny have won 10.7% of 4,269 runs since 2017 (268 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 6.1% from 358.

Cable Bay (IRE) 8.2% · 4–49

Progeny have won 9.9% of 3,726 runs since 2019 (243 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.8% from 645. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 290.

Profitable (IRE) 10.6% · 5–47

Progeny have won 9.5% of 4,439 runs since 2021 (358 horses).

Mastercraftsman (IRE) 15.2% · 7–46

Progeny have won 10.6% of 11,636 runs since 2013 (842 horses).

Oasis Dream (GB) 13.3% · 6–45

Progeny have won 11.8% of 18,028 runs since 2008 (1,511 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.3% from 150. Weakest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 484. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.1% from 790.

Showcasing (GB) 7.7% · 3–39

Progeny have won 10.2% of 11,637 runs since 2014 (998 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 109.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 3 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,346 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,346 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 12 April 2021 to 2 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

02 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Mohaab (GB)J: Rob Hornby Midnite Built Different Handicap StakesClass 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 12/1

02 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Captain Cairney (GB)J: Lewis Edmunds Midnite It's Actually Pretty Good Handicap StakesClass 5 · 14f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 3/1

02 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Enricher (IRE)J: Lewis Edmunds All Weather Championship Is Back Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 7 ran 1st 11/1

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Midnight Media (GB)J: Lewis Edmunds Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 11f · Standard · 7 ran 3rd 15/8F

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Diamondise (IRE)J: Lewis Edmunds ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 4th 11/1

28 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Herculeus (GB)J: Oisin Murphy Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 10th 10/1

28 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Blue Hercules (IRE)J: Ashley Lewis Try Unibet's New Racing Bet Builder Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 12f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 4th 15/2

28 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Medway Queen (IRE)J: David Probert Set Your Limits With Unibet Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 9 ran 6th 6/1

28 Oct 26 Nottingham Ebt's Guard (GB)J: Lewis Edmunds Robin Hood Stakes (Listed Race) (Formerly Known As The Ben Marshall Stakes)Class 1 · 8.5f · Soft · 8 ran 2nd 9/2

27 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Kudos Too (GB)J: Lewis Edmunds Midnite Built Different Handicap StakesClass 5 · 12f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 13/2

26 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Katalyst (GB)J: Lewis Edmunds Try Unibet's Superboosts Handicap StakesClass 6 · 11f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 7th 14/1

26 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Flag Of Nations (IRE)J: Marco Ghiani Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 4th 10/1

24 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Kev (GB)J: Daniel Muscutt Aw Trails Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 13 ran 5th 7/2F

24 Oct 26 Doncaster Breacher (GB)J: Lewis Edmunds William Hill Futurity Trophy Stakes (Group 1)Class 1 · 8f · Heavy · 7 ran 6th 25/1

22 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Medway Queen (IRE)J: Jason Hart All-Weather Championship Is Back Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 5th 3/1

22 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Blue Tulip (IRE)J: Jason Hart Midnite: Built For 2027 Not 2007 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 12 ran 3rd 4/1

19 Oct 26 Bath Sweet Katarina (GB)J: Finley Marsh Wiltshire And Bath Air Ambulance Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 12th 40/1

19 Oct 26 Bath Artemis Star (GB)J: Tom Marquand Wiltshire And Bath Air Ambulance Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 9th 4/1

17 Oct 26 Catterick Captain Cairney (GB)J: Harry Vigors Go Racing In Yorkshire Future Stars Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 14f · Good · 10 ran 3rd 11/4

17 Oct 26 Ascot Ebt's Guard (GB)J: Lewis Edmunds Balmoral Handicap Stakes (sponsored By Qatar Racing)Class 2 · 8f · Good · 20 ran 3rd 11/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 5 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 5 runs (won 1, 1 did not run) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 3 runs (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 2 runs (won 0) · to 28 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is William Muir & Chris Grassick's strike rate?: William Muir & Chris Grassick has won 119 of 1,123 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 10.6% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does William Muir & Chris Grassick do best at?: Nottingham by strike rate: 9 wins from 39 runners (23.1%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for William Muir & Chris Grassick?: Lewis Edmunds, with 580 runners since 2022 — 52% of the total. That pairing has won 62 (10.7%).
Is William Muir & Chris Grassick in form?: In the last 14 days: 16 runners, 1 winner, a strike rate of 6.3%. That is below the baseline of 10.6% since 2022.
What is William Muir & Chris Grassick's Fair A/E?: 0.98, from 1,117 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.