What is Matthew Davies's strike rate?

Matthew Davies has won 111 of 1,050 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 10.6% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Matthew Davies do best at?

Lingfield by strike rate: 6 wins from 31 rides (19.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Matthew Davies ride most for?

George Baker, with 351 rides since 2008 — 33% of the total. That pairing has won 53 (15.1%).

What is Matthew Davies's Fair A/E?

0.95, from 1,043 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Matthew Davies

1,050 rides in the lifetime window · 486 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Jul 2013 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

111–1,050

Wins / Runs

10.6%

Strike rate

n=1,050

316 (30%)

Placed

0.95

Fair A/E

n=1,043 · 0.83 incl. margin

−266.42

£1 level stake

n=1,050 at SP · −25.4%

£573k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

12.5%

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 180 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 11% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.95). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 24% (112 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,050 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Nov–Jan Fresh horses: 14.2% 28.9% when favourite George Baker: 15.1% from 351 First rides: 11.5% LTO winners: 24.1% Claiming: 10.7%

The read

The record is strongest at Wolverhampton (AW) (18.5%, n=135) and Lingfield (19.4%, n=31) — all clear of the rider's 10.6% baseline. It is weakest at Chepstow (0% over 30 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 24.1% (n=112, Fair A/E 1.08), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 4.2% (n=142, Fair A/E 0.69). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 14.2% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.43 and +3.35 to a £1 stake over 113 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. George Baker supplied 33% of the rides and edges the rider's average (15.1% vs 10.6%, A/E 1.17) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Guisborough Stakes at Redcar (Oct 2011, £17,013). The standout partner of the record was Saddlers Bend (IRE) — 5 wins from 10 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fired Nov–Jan.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.6% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

11.5%+0.9

n=478 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −55.80

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

24.1%+13.5

n=112 · A/E 1.08 · £1 +38.16

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

14.2%+3.6

n=113 · A/E 1.43 · £1 +3.35

When favourite

28.9%

n=97 · A/E 0.87 · £1 −27.54

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

10.7%+0.1

n=726 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −191.38

Big fields · 14+ runners

4.2%−6.4

n=142 · A/E 0.69 · £1 −78.50

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

8.3%−2.3

n=12 · A/E 1.56 · £1 −6.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With new recruits 34% vs 10.6% · n=47

On last-time-out winners 24.1% vs 10.6% · n=112

At Wolverhampton (AW) 18.5% vs 10.6% · n=135

At Chepstow 0% vs 10.6% · n=30

With C&D winners 17.8% vs 10.6% · n=135

At Lingfield 19.4% vs 10.6% · n=31

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 434 55 12.7% −86.51

Good to Firm 230 21 9.1% −66.85

Good 216 16 7.4% −80.67

Good to Soft 90 10 11.1% −4.20

Soft 46 6 13% −23.69

Firm 27 3 11.1% +2.50

Heavy 7 0 0% −7.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 135 25 18.5% +23.67

Lingfield (AW) 123 15 12.2% −28.37

Kempton (AW) 121 10 8.3% −44.31

Southwell (AW) 53 5 9.4% −35.50

Bath 47 8 17% +10.00

Windsor 45 5 11.1% +2.66

Newbury 39 3 7.7% −9.00

Epsom Downs 36 3 8.3% −19.30

Brighton 36 3 8.3% −22.50

Goodwood 35 2 5.7% −19.00

Lingfield 31 6 19.4% +28.08

Yarmouth 31 4 12.9% −12.68

Chepstow 30 0 0% −30.00

Nottingham 29 0 0% −29.00

Sandown 26 0 0% −26.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 429 50 11.7% −133.44

Class 5 359 29 8.1% −135.11

Class 4 169 19 11.2% −5.67

Class 3 49 7 14.3% +6.80

Class 2 21 2 9.5% +2.50

Class 1 12 1 8.3% −6.00

Class 7 11 3 27.3% +4.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 119 31 26.1% 0.85 −38.04

2nd–3rd fav 242 46 19% 1.11 +5.12

4th–6th fav 307 26 8.5% 1.05 −14.50

7th+ in betting 382 8 2.1% 0.61 −219.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Music Box Express (GB) 30 3 10 2 Feb 10

Romantic Queen (GB) 19 3 8 16 Mar 11

Speak The Truth (IRE) 16 2 5 16 May 12

Iguacu (GB) 16 2 5 8 Dec 10

Yojimbo (IRE) 15 2 7 1 Jul 13

Another Try (IRE) 15 2 6 2 May 11

Kummel Excess (IRE) 12 2 4 22 Feb 11

Maddy (GB) 12 0 3 5 Aug 09

Chevise (IRE) 11 3 6 2 May 13

Inconspicuous Miss (USA) 11 2 4 25 Nov 09

Song To The Moon (IRE) 10 3 3 28 Jul 11

Saddlers Bend (IRE) 10 5 7 3 Jun 11

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 486 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

13112010911881181216

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardGeorge Baker

33% of all rides
15.1% SR · A/E 1.17

TrainerRWSR£1

George Baker 351 53 15.1% −31.12

Mick Channon 283 25 8.8% −99.59

Jim Boyle 107 17 15.9% +13.50

Alan Jarvis 87 5 5.7% −23.67

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2006→

118

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£623k

Prize money

2011

Best season · 33 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Chilworth Lad (GB) — Guisborough Stakes (Listed) Redcar · Oct 2011 · Listed

£17,013

Edinburgh Knight (IRE) — Qipco Future Stars Apprentice Handicap Ascot · Oct 2011 · Class 2

£16,173

South Cape (GB) — Innospec Handicap Chester · Sep 2007 · Class 3

£9,716

Notable horses

Saddlers Bend (IRE) Humidor (IRE) Music Box Express (GB) Romantic Queen (GB) Chevise (IRE) Song To The Moon (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Exceed and Excel (AUS) 14.3% · 5–35

Progeny have won 11.9% of 16,036 runs since 2008 (1,161 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 20.7% from 198. Weakest on Soft going: 7.9% from 1,194.

Tale Of The Cat (USA) 10% · 3–30

Progeny have won 10.5% of 774 runs since 2008 (55 horses).

Imperial Dancer (GB) 0% · 0–24

Progeny have won 9.3% of 940 runs since 2008 (61 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 12.7% from 142.

Medicean (GB) 16.7% · 4–24

Progeny have won 10.4% of 9,890 runs since 2008 (682 horses).

Compton Place (GB) 0% · 0–23

Progeny have won 8.5% of 8,347 runs since 2008 (515 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 11.5% from 165.

Bahamian Bounty (GB) 14.3% · 3–21

Progeny have won 9.6% of 9,353 runs since 2008 (598 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 1% from 202.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,150 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,150 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 19 August 2006 to 4 July 2013.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

04 Jul 13 Epsom Downs The Wallace Line (IRE)T: Mick Channon British Stallion Studs James Laing Memorial E.b.f. Median Auction Maiden StakesClass 5 · 7f · Good · 7 ran 6th 8/1

01 Jul 13 Ffos Las Yojimbo (IRE)T: Mick Channon Lonetree Ltd Mcdonalds HandicapClass 4 · 8f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 4th 11/2

30 Jun 13 Windsor Jullundar (IRE)T: Mick Channon King Size Pools At Totepool.com HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 2nd 20/1

29 Jun 13 Windsor Savanna Days (IRE)T: Mick Channon Collect Totepool Winnings At Betfred Shops Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 8/1

29 Jun 13 Windsor Deeds Not Words (IRE)T: Mick Channon Infineum Collaboration Maiden StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good · 13 ran 2nd 50/1

21 Jun 13 Goodwood Savanna Days (IRE)T: Mick Channon Trevor Nelson Fillies' HandicapClass 4 · 7f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 16/1

16 Jun 13 Salisbury Uncomplicated (GB)T: Jim Boyle Ray 'Rasher' Ames Memorial Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 7th 16/1

15 Jun 13 Lingfield Senorita Guest (IRE)T: Mick Channon Complete Plumbing Median Auction Maiden Fillies' StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 6th 7/2

14 Jun 13 Goodwood Hattie Jacques (GB)T: Mick Channon Frankie's 26th Anniversary Maiden StakesClass 5 · 8f · Good · 8 ran 6th 14/1

14 Jun 13 Sandown The Wallace Line (IRE)T: Mick Channon British Stallion Studs E.B.F. Maiden Stakes (Div 2)Class 5 · 7f · Good · 9 ran 5th 25/1

13 Jun 13 Newbury Tammis (GB)T: Ron Hodges Crossland Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Div 2)Class 4 · 10f · Good · 13 ran 13th 100/1

08 Jun 13 Newbury Talqaa (GB)T: Mick Channon Bathwick Tyres Maiden StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 6th 20/1

08 Jun 13 Newbury Yojimbo (IRE)T: Mick Channon Bathwick Tyres Handicap (Rnd)Class 4 · 8f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 5th 12/1

05 Jun 13 Kempton (AW) Gigawatt (GB)T: Jim Boyle Winners Are Welcome At Betdaq HandicapClass 4 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 33/1

04 Jun 13 Lingfield (AW) Ivan B (GB)T: Mick Channon BHEST Median Auction Maiden StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 7 ran 7th 20/1

01 Jun 13 Lingfield Tidentime (USA)T: Mick Channon Premier Administration HandicapClass 4 · 6f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 1st 8/1

01 Jun 13 Lingfield Senorita Guest (IRE)T: Mick Channon Premier 10 Years Anniversary Maiden Fillies' StakesClass 5 · 5f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 3rd 12/1

30 May 13 Brighton Symboline (GB)T: Mick Channon Ryan Vehicles Any Make New Car Sales HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 3rd 8/1

29 May 13 Kempton (AW) Jalebi (GB)T: Jim Boyle Conor Maynard Live At Kempton 14.09.13 Median Auction Maiden StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 5 ran 4th 33/1

27 May 13 Windsor What A Dandy (IRE)T: Jim Boyle Happy Birthday Paul Maiden Auction StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good · 11 ran 11th 10/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Matthew Davies's strike rate?: Matthew Davies has won 111 of 1,050 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 10.6% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Matthew Davies do best at?: Lingfield by strike rate: 6 wins from 31 rides (19.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Matthew Davies ride most for?: George Baker, with 351 rides since 2008 — 33% of the total. That pairing has won 53 (15.1%).
What is Matthew Davies's Fair A/E?: 0.95, from 1,043 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.