Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 90 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 11% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.01).
Deterministic profile computed from 434 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 22 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceFires Aug–Oct28.9% when favouriteGeorge Bass: 9.6% from 115Sends off the favourite in 9% of races
The read
Debutants struggle at 0% (n=38, Fair A/E 0.00). George Bass rides 26% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (9.6%, A/E 1.11) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well at trips under 6f (16.1%, n=62) and in Class 2 (15%, n=40). The record reads poorly over 1m2f – 1m4f — 3% over 66 runners, 7.8pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard on Good going: Fair A/E 0.75 across 135 runners (8.1% strike, −35.40 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 102 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Etihad Airways Irish 1,000 Guineas at Curragh (May 2012, £174,000). The stable star of the record: Highlife Dancer (GB) — 16 wins from 99 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Aug–Oct.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 10.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
6.5%−4.3
n=46 · A/E 0.95 · £1 +2.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
100%+89.2
n=1 · A/E 38.47 · £1 +28.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−10.8
n=38 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −38.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−10.8
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−10.8
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
When favourite
28.9%
n=38 · A/E 0.87 · £1 −11.08
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
9.9%−0.9
n=141 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −16.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
11.1%+0.3
n=18 · A/E 2.44 · £1 +7.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With debutants0% vs 10.8% · n=38
Over 1m2f – 1m4f3% vs 10.8% · n=66
At trips under 6f16.1% vs 10.8% · n=62
In Class 215% vs 10.8% · n=40
Off a 8-14-day break13.5% vs 10.8% · n=141
On Good going8.1% vs 10.8% · n=135
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat4264711%−79.25
Chase400%−4.00
NH Flat300%−3.00
Hurdle100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good135118.1%−35.40
Standard (AW)1081312%−26.30
Good to Firm961010.4%−29.75
Good to Soft6158.2%−15.67
Soft25312%−1.00
Heavy7457.1%+17.87
Firm2150%+3.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Newbury29310.3%−15.75
Kempton (AW)2613.8%−22.75
Goodwood2613.8%−23.90
Windsor2514%−20.00
Wolverhampton (AW)25728%+25.50
Lingfield (AW)2414.2%−19.67
Brighton2428.3%−9.00
Chelmsford City (AW)20315%−2.88
Salisbury1500%−15.00
Newmarket14321.4%+31.50
Ffos Las13323.1%+5.85
Chepstow13215.4%−3.50
Doncaster12433.3%+38.62
Epsom Downs12433.3%+10.00
Haydock1200%−12.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 5154159.7%−79.34
Class 41101210.9%−39.78
Class 676911.8%−12.13
Class 240615%+47.50
Class 33638.3%−10.50
Class 118211.1%+7.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite451226.7%0.83−13.08
2nd–3rd fav981818.4%1.13−3.17
4th–6th fav152138.6%1.11−11.00
7th+ in betting13942.9%0.88−60.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f1882312.2%−49.60
1m – 1m1f8189.9%+9.35
1m2f – 1m4f6623%−49.75
Under 6f621016.1%+9.75
1m5f – 2m33412.1%−3.00
2m1f – 2m4f300%−3.00
2m5f – 3m100%−1.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps2712810.3%−31.78
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners1652515.2%+18.05
5-7 runners1161311.2%−56.63
11-13 runners9566.3%−47.77
14-16 runners2600%−26.00
17+ runners18211.1%+37.00
2-4 runners1417.1%−11.90
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 72 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 3 arrived from another yard in our archive; 57 had their first archived run for this yard.
46 have since run for another yard, most often for Jack Channon (28) and Sheena West (5); 14 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
801956135131217200
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
1,575
Archived wins
102
Pattern / graded wins
£23.8m
Prize money
2006
Best season · 128 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Samitar (GB) — Etihad Airways Irish 1,000 Guineas (Fillies' Group 1) Curragh · May 2012 · Group 1
£174,000
Youmzain (IRE) — Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud - 10 Ans de la LNR Saint-Cloud (FR) · Jun 2008 · Group 1
£168,059
Samitar (GB) — 300,000 Tattersalls Millions 2yo Fillies' Trophy Newmarket · Oct 2011 · Class 2
Progeny have won 8.8% of 4,227 runs since 2008 (353 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 2.5% from 121. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 2.4% from 124.
Progeny have won 8.3% of 3,052 runs since 2008 (175 horses).
Oasis Dream (GB)25% · 5–20
Progeny have won 11.8% of 18,002 runs since 2008 (1,509 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.3% from 150. Weakest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 482. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.1% from 790.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 14,815 · newest first
The latest 50 of 14,815 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 31 December 2022.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Mick Channon's strike rate?
Mick Channon has won 47 of 434 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 10.8% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Who rides most for Mick Channon?
George Bass, with 115 runners since 2022 — 26% of the total. That pairing has won 11 (9.6%).
What is Mick Channon's Fair A/E?
1.01, from 429 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Mick Channon·SR 10.8%·A/E 1.01
KTB
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