Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Small sample — fewer than 30 runs in this window. Read the Ns before the percentages.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 14.3% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
0%−14.3
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
20%+5.7
n=5 · A/E 0.74 · £1 −3.43
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
14.3%+0.0
n=7 · A/E 1.64 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
50%
n=2 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −0.43
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
16.7%+2.4
n=18 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −5.43
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−14.3
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 14.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good10220%−2.43
Soft600%−6.00
Good to Soft5120%+0.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Sandown700%−7.00
Kelso500%−5.00
Perth22100%+5.57
Cheltenham200%−2.00
Musselburgh2150%+3.00
Stratford100%−1.00
Hexham100%−1.00
Aintree100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 47228.6%+4.00
Class 3600%−6.00
Class 2300%−3.00
Class 53133.3%−1.43
Class 6200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite2150%0.92−0.43
2nd–3rd fav6116.7%0.92−1.00
4th–6th fav9111.1%1.41−3.00
7th+ in betting400%0.00−4.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m5f – 3m15213.3%−7.43
Over 3m5120%+0.00
2m1f – 2m4f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2008200%−2.00
2009200%−2.00
2017100%−1.00
2018400%−4.00
20196233.3%+1.57
20202150%+3.00
2021100%−1.00
2022300%−3.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps200%−2.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners700%−7.00
5-7 runners5360%+7.57
11-13 runners400%−4.00
17+ runners300%−3.00
2-4 runners200%−2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 8 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Mr Mercurial (IRE) — Royal Scots Dragoon Guards Creevytennant Open Hunters' Chase Perth · Apr 2019 · Class 4
£3,650
Mr Mercurial (IRE) — Bet365 Scottish Foxhunter Open Hunters' Chase Musselburgh · Feb 2020 · Class 4
£3,612
Mr Mercurial (IRE) — Bruce Farms 'Grassroots' Hunters' Chase (Corinthian Spirit Qualifier) Perth · May 2019 · Class 5
Progeny have won 12.1% of 11,872 runs since 2009 (946 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.
Noroit (GER)0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 9.5% of 623 runs since 2011 (63 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13.1% from 122.
Shantou (USA)0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 13.6% of 7,845 runs since 2008 (539 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 20.3% from 158.
Northern Flagship (USA)0% · 0–1
Progeny have won 0% of 4 runs since 2008 (1 horse). A small sample.
Octagonal (NZ)0% · 0–1
Progeny have won 7.5% of 159 runs since 2008 (12 horses).
Portrait Gallery (IRE)0% · 0–1
Progeny have won 11% of 1,448 runs since 2008 (124 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 14.3% from 223.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
all 25 archived runs · newest first
Every one of Mr Will Ramsay's 25 archived rides, from 11 March 2005 to 4 May 2022, newest first — 3 winners among them.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Mr Will Ramsay's strike rate?
Mr Will Ramsay has won 3 of 21 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 14.3% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive. A small sample — fewer than 30 rides, so read the count before the percentage.
Mr Will Ramsay·SR 14.3%·A/E 1.01
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