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Trainer profile

Ferdy Murphy

1,939 runners in the lifetime window · 232 individual horses
As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Dec 2017 100% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
181–1,939
Wins / Runs
9.3%
Strike rate
n=1,939
527 (27%)
Placed
0.87
Fair A/E
n=1,924 · 0.77 incl. margin
−773.87
£1 level stake
n=1,937 at SP · −40.0%
£2.01m
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 190 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 9% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.87).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,939 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fired Mar–May 29.1% when favourite Graham Lee: 11.1% from 865 Sent off the favourite in 8% of races
The read

It is weakest at Auteuil (FR) (0% over 30 runners) — the widest gap in the record. A horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 0% (n=33, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 4.3% strike, Fair A/E 0.51 and −357.30 to a £1 stake over 510 runners — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Graham Lee rode 45% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (11.1%, A/E 0.87). The record read poorly off a break of 180+ days — 4.2% over 263 runners, 5.1pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard off a 61-180-day break: Fair A/E 0.52 across 247 runners (4.5% strike, −172.65 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. 7 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Ballymore Properties Champion Stayers Hurdle at Punchestown (Apr 2005, £105,400). The stable star of the record was Poker De Sivola (FR) — 7 wins from 31 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fired Mar–May.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
4.3%−5.0
n=510 · A/E 0.51 · £1 −357.30
New recruits · first run for the yard
6%−3.3
n=83 · A/E 0.78 · £1 −45.00
Debutants · first career start
5.6%−3.7
n=72 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −26.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−9.3
n=33 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −32.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
8.6%−0.7
n=35 · A/E 1.11 · £1 +11.00
When favourite
29.1%
n=148 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −22.05
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
7.4%−1.9
n=632 · A/E 0.87 · £1 −230.41
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
4.5%−4.8
n=44 · A/E 0.80 · £1 −21.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With first-time headgear 0% vs 9.3% · n=33
At Auteuil (FR) 0% vs 9.3% · n=30
At Bangor-on-Dee 0% vs 9.3% · n=30
At Aintree 2.7% vs 9.3% · n=75
Off a break of 180+ days 4.2% vs 9.3% · n=263
Off a 61-180-day break 4.5% vs 9.3% · n=247
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Chase 1,025 111 10.8% −297.68
Hurdle 785 65 8.3% −399.69
NH Flat 120 5 4.2% −67.50
Flat 9 0 0% −9.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 664 62 9.3% −273.63
Good to Soft 463 24 5.2% −311.03
Soft 398 49 12.3% −49.92
Heavy 223 22 9.9% −87.58
Good to Firm 158 21 13.3% −39.21
Standard (AW) 32 2 6.3% −15.50
Firm 1 1 100% +3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Sedgefield 226 31 13.7% −27.99
Hexham 143 20 14% −13.43
Musselburgh 116 13 11.2% −36.12
Kelso 110 13 11.8% −41.28
Catterick 105 10 9.5% −54.72
Carlisle 103 10 9.7% −31.25
Newcastle 102 5 4.9% −76.46
Ayr 99 11 11.1% −13.40
Wetherby 96 8 8.3% −49.00
Market Rasen 77 6 7.8% −32.00
Cheltenham 77 5 6.5% −33.50
Aintree 75 2 2.7% −66.75
Doncaster 73 5 6.8% −37.75
Perth 63 7 11.1% −12.38
Uttoxeter 59 5 8.5% −26.62

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 830 82 9.9% −368.23
Class 3 365 40 11% −104.46
Class 5 345 35 10.1% −116.85
Class 2 175 12 6.9% −75.18
Class 1 107 5 4.7% −67.25
Class 6 63 3 4.8% −27.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 192 50 26% 0.90 −35.22
2nd–3rd fav 465 80 17.2% 1.02 −46.15
4th–6th fav 628 41 6.5% 0.83 −198.50
7th+ in betting 652 10 1.5% 0.44 −494.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
80.2% completed · 1,810 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 1,025 76.2% 44 31 166 0 3
Hurdle 785 85.5% 15 7 88 2 2
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
The Hollinwell (GB)then Eugene M O'Sullivan 36 4 12 28 Mar 13
Pistol Basc (FR)then Rebecca Menzies 34 2 10 18 Aug 13
Lord Villez (FR)from M Rolland 32 4 11 23 Oct 14
De Boitron (FR)from R Chotard · then Sue Smith 31 5 14 9 Jun 13
Gavroche Gaugain (FR)then Dan Skelton 30 2 6 4 May 13
Divers (FR)from Charlie Longsdon · then Donald McCain 29 4 14 11 Apr 13
Riguez Dancer (GB)from P C Haslam · then Donald McCain 28 3 7 27 Apr 13
Le Roi Rouge (FR)from T Civel 28 3 9 15 May 12
Ouest Eclair (FR) 27 1 9 11 Dec 12
Kalahari King (FR)from H-A Pantall 26 6 13 13 Apr 12
Rich Lord (GB)from James Bethell 25 2 10 28 Apr 13
Charingworth (IRE)from Henry Daly · then Kim Bailey 24 3 6 20 Mar 13
The 60 most-raced of 232 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 33 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from M Rolland (2) and Mark Johnston (2); 27 had their first archived run for this yard.

29 have since run for another yard, most often for Rebecca Menzies (5) and Donald McCain (3); 31 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
8101211149865398
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderGraham Lee
45% of all rides
11.1% SR · A/E 0.87
RiderRWSR£1
Graham Lee 865 96 11.1% −373.95
Tony Kelly 149 12 8.1% −37.62
Keith Mercer 122 11 9% −62.75
Lucy Alexander 106 7 6.6% −47.50
James Reveley 87 4 4.6% −58.75
Michael O'Connell 65 6 9.2% −3.25
Paul Gallagher 54 3 5.6% −35.50
Ewan Whillans 53 5 9.4% −27.14
Rob McCarth 43 4 9.3% −11.00
T J Dreaper 42 5 11.9% −23.31
John Winston 40 5 12.5% +8.75
Rees Morgan Murphy 36 3 8.3% −2.90
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
328
Archived wins
7
Pattern / graded wins
£4.20m
Prize money
2007
Best season · 56 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Carlys Quest (GB) — Ballymore Properties Champion Stayers Hurdle (Grade 1) Punchestown · Apr 2005 · Grade 1
£105,400
Hot Weld (GB) — Scottish National Handicap Chase (Gd3) Ayr · Apr 2007 · Class 1
£96,934
Hot Weld (GB) — Betfred Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Sandown · Apr 2007 · Class 1
£91,232
Notable horses
Poker De Sivola (FR) Kalahari King (FR) Lucky Nellerie (FR) Beggars Cap (IRE) Ockey De Neulliac (FR) Elzahann (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Supreme Leader (GB) 9.5% · 8–84
Progeny have won 9.2% of 2,984 runs since 2008 (349 horses).
Bob Back (USA) 19.6% · 10–51
Progeny have won 11.8% of 3,724 runs since 2008 (338 horses).
Silver Patriarch (IRE) 13% · 6–46
Progeny have won 7.8% of 2,609 runs since 2008 (262 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 11.3% from 274. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 11.3% from 300.
Varese (FR) 6.5% · 3–46
Progeny have won 6.4% of 109 runs since 2008 (10 horses).
Cyborg (FR) 20.9% · 9–43
Progeny have won 8.9% of 470 runs since 2008 (45 horses). Weakest on Good going: 4.9% from 102.
Saddlers' Hall (IRE) 20% · 8–40
Progeny have won 7.7% of 4,861 runs since 2008 (460 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 3,135 · newest first

The latest 50 of 3,135 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 5 January 2005 to 6 December 2017.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
06 Dec 17 Deauville (FR) Xpo Universel (FR)J: Christopher Grosbois Prix de Berdhuis (Handicap) (4yo+) (Polytrack)17f · Standard · 15 ran 14th 29/1
30 Oct 17 Chantilly (FR) No Surrender (FR)J: Mme Laura Grosso Prix de l'Allee Camelia (Claimer) (2yo) (Young Jockeys & Apprentices) (Polytrack)6.5f · Standard · 16 ran 14th 212/10
14 Oct 17 Auteuil (FR) Xpo Universel (FR)J: Corentin Smeulders Prix Roger Soulange-Bodin (Hurdle) (Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf)19.5f · Very Soft · 18 ran PU 249/10
13 Apr 17 Auteuil (FR) Xpo Universel (FR)J: Simon Cossart Prix Rose Laurel (Hurdle) (Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf)19.5f · Very Soft · 15 ran 12th 223/10
01 Apr 17 Auteuil (FR) Straying (IRE)J: Rees Morgan Murphy Prix Kashnil (Hurdle) (Handicap) (4yo) (Turf)18f · Very Soft · 14 ran F 72/1
18 Mar 17 Auteuil (FR) Xpo Universel (FR)J: Rees Morgan Murphy Prix Lilium (Hurdle) (Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf)19.5f · Very Soft · 18 ran 16th 205/10
06 Nov 16 Auteuil (FR) Xpo Universel (FR)J: Rees Morgan Murphy Prix RMC (Prix Mondeville) (Hurdle) (Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf)18f · Very Soft · 13 ran 3rd 68/10
02 Nov 16 Enghien (FR) Tidjy (FR)J: Corentin Smeulders Prix Kerlor (Chase) (Claimer) (3yo) (Turf)17f · Very Soft · 10 ran F 113/10
28 Oct 16 Auteuil (FR) Bullfinch (FR)J: Rees Morgan Murphy Prix Ferdinand Riant (AQPS) (Chase) (Conditions) (5yo) (Turf)21.5f · Very Soft · 8 ran F 53/1
15 Oct 16 Auteuil (FR) Xpo Universel (FR)J: Rees Morgan Murphy Prix Roger Soulange-Bodin (Hurdle) (Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf)19.5f · Very Soft · 18 ran 4th 97/10
15 Sep 16 Auteuil (FR) Xpo Universel (FR)J: Rees Morgan Murphy Prix Chakhansoor (Hurdle) (Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf)19.5f · Very Soft · 14 ran 5th 28/1
15 Sep 16 Auteuil (FR) Merci A Vous (FR)J: Rees Morgan Murphy Prix Royal Junior (Hurdle) (Conditions) (3yo) (Turf)17.5f · Very Soft · 13 ran F 68/1
23 Jul 16 Clairefontaine Xpo Universel (FR)J: Rees Morgan Murphy Prix Ville De Honfleur (Prix Jacques Peillon) (Hurdle)18f · Very Soft · 4 ran 11th 114/1
20 Jun 16 Auteuil (FR) Mobilight (FR)J: Rees Morgan Murphy Prix Jason (Hurdle) (Conditions) (4yo Fillies) (Turf)17.5f · Heavy · 14 ran PU —
06 Jun 16 Auteuil (FR) Mobilight (FR)J: Rees Morgan Murphy Prix Gopal (Hurdle) (Claimer) (4yo) (Turf)17.5f · Heavy · 6 ran 4th 147/10
27 May 16 Auteuil (FR) Bullfinch (FR)J: James Reveley Prix de la Muette (Hurdle) (Conditions) (5yo) (Turf)18f · Very Soft · 12 ran PU 34/1
25 Nov 15 Auteuil (FR) Hollo Ladies (IRE)J: Rees Morgan Murphy Prix Barcelonnette (Hurdle) (Claimer) (5yo+) (Turf)18f · Heavy · 9 ran 7th 249/10
25 Nov 15 Auteuil (FR) Golden Surprise (FR)J: Rees Morgan Murphy Prix Styrax (Hurdle) (Claimer) (4yo) (Turf)18f · Heavy · 10 ran 5th 4/1
15 Nov 15 Nantes (FR) Breizh Alko (FR)J: Rees Morgan Murphy Prix Hubert Hardy (Hurdle) (Turf)19.5f · Good To Soft · 3 ran 1st 21/10F
22 Oct 15 Auteuil (FR) Uranium (FR)J: Rees Morgan Murphy Prix Moncourt (Chase) (Claimer) (5yo+) (Turf)19f · Very Soft · 14 ran PU 69/10

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Ferdy Murphy's strike rate?
Ferdy Murphy has won 181 of 1,939 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.3% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Ferdy Murphy do best at?
Hexham by strike rate: 20 wins from 143 runners (14%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Ferdy Murphy?
Graham Lee, with 865 runners since 2008 — 45% of the total. That pairing has won 96 (11.1%).
What is Ferdy Murphy's Fair A/E?
0.87, from 1,924 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 15 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).